I doubt it very much. Good reviews are his reward at this point. It's still a comic male-stripper movie released in June. Best Actor competition is going to be fierce. By New Year's, Joaquin Phoenix, Bill Murray, Daniel Day-Lewis, Leonardo DiCaprio, John Hawkes, Jamie Foxx, Bradley Cooper, Hugh Jackman, Tom Hanks, and Ryan Gosling will be in the hunt.

He might score a Golden Globe nomination.

0.0%

The Dark Knight Rises isn't happening, in my opinion. Not outside the technical categories. I s'pose Best Picture isn't out of the question, but I don't feel enough love will be there come the end of the year. Not among the largely older Academy.

Certainly none of the actors will be nominated. Michael Caine has a few amazing moments, but vanishes for too long.

^ I feel the same as above. No acting noms for sure and I don't feel BP either.

But it will rule the techs. Cinematography, Sound noms, Visual Effects, Editing, Art Direction...

This is getting a BP nom. You can bet your life on it.

The tragedy wiped away any chance of a BP nomination.

If anything... it helped.

What? If anything, it will serve to increase TDKRs presence there.

Had Caine & Hathaway had enough material, they could have challenged for nominations. Nolan reallllly has the baddies down. Eckhart was oscar worthy in TDK too imo.

Inception got a BP nod and TDKR has just as good (if not slightly better) reviews than that.

I know the system is a bit different now than it was back then but I think it's still going to get in.

I think it trivializes the film and dilutes the film's 'real world' applicability.

TDK was sold as a crime drama. TDKR, post shooting, is just a superhero film.

Not saying that's the way it ought to be seen, however

To be honest, I think the tragedy will be forgotten by the time January comes. This is a very "in the moment" kind of story.

I don't believe it'll be forgotten. A lot of this year's stories will be--the murder of Trayvon Martin, for instance, or most of the election "controversies"--but the theatre shooting seems closer to the Oklahoma City bombing or Columbine. One people will remember.

Right, but people aren't going to revisit the film. Unless voters saw it before the shooting, their reactions - like it or not - will be impacted. Even if you think it'll be forgotten, the majority of the voters aren't going to see TDKR for the first time in November when they get a screener.

Really? I'm not feeling that at all. I just think its something that sort of hit the moment at the right time. Political stuff was quiet, it was Friday ("dead" news day), it was tied with one of the biggest pop-culture moments of the year, etc.

Unless gun control somehow actually becomes a legit issue during this election, this will be forgotten. The presidential election will overtake all these news stories and that's all people will remember by the end of the year.

yeah, this will be forgotten by the main stream media soon enough, like they always. romney should be announcing his vp fairly soon, probably around then.

I can see a best picture nomination. Its an excellent all around movie, they were snubbed last time, the shooting makes it sympathetic, huge box office haul, etc.

The TDKR only deserves sound noms IMO, nothing else.

Your sentence doesn't make sense.

The shooting won't be a factor by December, but it still won't be nominated. TDK was very much a special event, both in how different it was from everything that came before in the Superhero genre, and in how much of a massive hit it was. For TDKR, the general agreement seems to be "Awesome, not as awesome as TDK," and it's not becoming the cultural phenomenon that TDK was.

It could do well in the techs (Like 5-7 nominations), but I don't think it'll be a factor in the main categories. Hunger Games strikes me as more likely, actually.

That's the one factor I agree that goes against it. The shooting has limited TDKR potential and even though it will end up with big numbers, it's not really a phenomenon. Inception didn't break 300m but it was the movie EVERYONE was talking about for the majority of 2010. That helped it get its nod.

Inception also didn't have to deal with the superhero stigma. It could be presented to the more closed-minded, older, "stodgier" male Academy members as a serious science fiction film and Leonardo DiCaprio vehicle.

I wasn't aware of any other kind

There are a few women in there, I'm told. If you examine very closely.

I may have missed it, but just skimming through the 3 pages, has no one mentioned The Hobbit?

I'm thinking tons of technical noms, BP, BD, and possibly best actor/supp. actor for Freeman and/or McKellen.

As for TDKR, I'm thinking it will be limited to tech. noms. Maybe a BP nom if a few films falter this fall.

The Hobbit isn't going to be big this year, IMO. A few obligatory technical nominations, but nothing more. It has so much against it:

a. It's part one of a three-part fantasy film.

b. The 2004 ceremony: "Uncle! Christ, uncle! Here! Every Oscar we have! They're yours!" There is no urge to reward Peter Jackson any longer, certainly not for returning to this franchise.

So, basically, the only serious contender at any major noms released so far is Moonrise Kingdom, eh? (no, TDKR is not a major contender).

I'd love for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel to snatch one or two acting noms, but that isn't happening.