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March 21-23 Predictions
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=90997		 Page 1 of 2
Author:  zwackerm [ Fri Mar 14, 2025 9:15 am ]
Post subject:  March 21-23 Predictions
Snow White 59m
Alto Knights 4m

My theater is getting the following not sure what they are or how wide they’re going.
Ash
Locked
Magazine Dreams the Jonathan Majors boxing movie finally sees the light. Don’t expect this one cracks 2m.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Fri Mar 14, 2025 11:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: March 21-23 Predictions
I think Magazine Dreams was a mystery movie, so it will at least get that money to boost the opening. Maybe it could crack 2 Million when that's added. :P

I've had the trailer for Locked in front of movies a couple of times, most recently with The Monkey. It's a horror/thriller produced by Sam Raimi and starring Bill Skarsgård and Anthony Hopkins. It's apparently opening in 1,000+ theaters.
Author:  Shack [ Fri Mar 14, 2025 11:31 am ]
Post subject:  Re: March 21-23 Predictions
It always seemed like a bomb and some recent years have shown that no competition doesn't save you. Barely 30 million.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Sun Mar 16, 2025 1:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: March 21-23 Predictions
Snow White is looking disastrous. I am thinking mid 30s to low 40s based on how it finishes. There is no way its doing anywhere near what Zwackerm is posting. Buzz seem to be negative.
Author:  O [ Sun Mar 16, 2025 1:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: March 21-23 Predictions
It's crazy that after all of the live actions we've had to go through with Disney how badly they botched Snow White. It's their most iconic animated film I'd argue in the history of the studio (TLK for sure could be argued but it all started with Snow White). Skimping by $100M behind other live actioners would be embarassing.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Sun Mar 16, 2025 5:02 am ]
Post subject:  Re: March 21-23 Predictions
At least early word from people who have seen it is great. I hope it ends up getting great reviews.
Author:  zwackerm [ Sun Mar 16, 2025 9:28 am ]
Post subject:  Re: March 21-23 Predictions
Magic Mike wrote:
At least early word from people who have seen it is great. I hope it ends up getting great reviews.


They sound like the typical “positive early social reactions” to me.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Sun Mar 16, 2025 12:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: March 21-23 Predictions
It's possible, but I think it will still end up fresh on Rotten Tomatoes.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Sun Mar 16, 2025 5:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: March 21-23 Predictions
its definitely curated. they did not even invite the press to the premier. Everything around this seems like Flash. They wanted to keep the lead low profile and out of limelight. Not a way to get a big opening. The movie has buzz but most of it is negative.
Author:  Shack [ Sun Mar 16, 2025 6:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: March 21-23 Predictions
That could just be Zegler fans "cheering for her".
Author:  MadGez [ Sun Mar 16, 2025 7:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: March 21-23 Predictions
Never trust those "early buzz" reviews for struggling films.
Author:  MadGez [ Sun Mar 16, 2025 7:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: March 21-23 Predictions
This could be one of those films where it looks like an OK-ish $60m OW and then drops and drops through the weekend.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Mon Mar 17, 2025 2:57 am ]
Post subject:  Re: March 21-23 Predictions
Keyser Söze wrote:
its definitely curated. they did not even invite the press to the premier. Everything around this seems like Flash. They wanted to keep the lead low profile and out of limelight. Not a way to get a big opening. The movie has buzz but most of it is negative.


Isn't Deadline considered press? They saw it, as they mentioned in their weekend box office write-up. They said:

Quote:
We caught Snow White yesterday, and let’s just say it’s a solid Disney movie with great songs from Oscar winners Pasek and Paul and great turns by Rachel Zegler in the title role and Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen. The Marc Webb-directed Snow White is every ounce as great as Beauty and the Beast and all great Disney feature takes of animated classics before it. All the fans that have been flamed by the controversy surrounding the movie were by people who have no intent of seeing the movie in the first place.


https://deadline.com/2025/03/box-office ... 236326472/

Seems legit to me. I don't see any reason they'd lie about it. Plus, it's not like Marc Webb hasn't made good movies. (500) Days of Summer is great, The Amazing Spider-Man is very good (not the sequel), as is Gifted. I believe he can make a good Snow White movie.

I usually don’t go out of my way to see movies like this, but I want to support it because I want it to succeed, especially since the Trumpers are upset about it. The more money it makes, the better. Honestly, I’d be cheering for it to do well regardless, just for the sake of movie theaters. They're struggling pretty bad right now and could use a big movie.
Author:  O [ Mon Mar 17, 2025 4:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: March 21-23 Predictions
I do think there could be some semblance of it being a decent movie just because it's buzz has been so terrible since the casting phase that the bar is so, so, so low on it. An empty market with maybe 1 existing holdover lucky to make it past $5M this weekend gives Snow White a lot of room to have "saved" the box office even if it barely gets past $30M.
Author:  Algren [ Tue Mar 18, 2025 8:08 am ]
Post subject:  Re: March 21-23 Predictions
I might have just done the impossible in this year's draft ... made Flava's picks form last year look good!

Fuck it's been one bad pick after another for me this year. Just awful.
Author:  MadGez [ Tue Mar 18, 2025 9:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: March 21-23 Predictions
You have Lilo & Stitch so it will make up for this as its set to explode. The Monkey and Love Hurts were also solid picks.

This weekend:

Snow White 46m
Alto Knights 6m
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Wed Mar 19, 2025 3:03 am ]
Post subject:  Re: March 21-23 Predictions
Snow White had zero tickets sold at my theater for Thursday so far lol. Even Ash has more. To be fair, I was the one who got the tickets for Ash, but still! Whats the lowest Snow could possibly go? Like $20M?

Also, Black Bag was great and I hope it has a nice small drop.
Author:  Algren [ Wed Mar 19, 2025 6:04 am ]
Post subject:  Re: March 21-23 Predictions
MadGez wrote:
You have Lilo & Stitch so it will make up for this as its set to explode.


Is it? I thought the trailer sucked. Ahh, maybe that's the key. Whatever I think is bad is what modern America laps up. :funny:
Author:  Thegun [ Wed Mar 19, 2025 9:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: March 21-23 Predictions
I don’t think it was just American. The original made almost 3x overseas. Trailer does nothing for me, but it seems like a crowd pleaser for kids
Author:  O [ Fri Mar 21, 2025 1:01 am ]
Post subject:  Re: March 21-23 Predictions
From Charlie:

$3.75M previews for #SnowWhite. Expecting the weekend to be in the low to mid-40s.
Author:  Algren [ Fri Mar 21, 2025 4:38 am ]
Post subject:  Re: March 21-23 Predictions
Once again the wokeists and leftists don't show up for a film that was made for them, leaving the conservatives to boycott it and give the progressives another embarrassment.
Author:  O [ Tue Mar 25, 2025 1:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: March 21-23 Predictions
SNOW WHITE ($2.6M) on Monday.

Dumbo was at $2.8M with 6.26% of its weekend total. Snow White was at 6.16% of its 3day weekend total. Easter was at about the same time for both movies which had late March starts (though Dumbo was 1 week later). It had Shazam and Pet Sematary in weekend 2.

Let's give Snow White a similar 2.5X multiplier for a total of $105.5M. I do feel Minecraft will hit it harder than Dumbo was hit by Shazam though there is another week of release.

I don't think $100M is guaranteed here if Minecraft especially becomes a multi-quadrant monster film which could happen.
Author:  Algren [ Tue Mar 25, 2025 1:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: March 21-23 Predictions
So, it's over/under is $100m. Pathetic, really.

But I don't see A Minecraft Movie being huge. Probably about the same as Snow White.
Author:  O [ Tue Mar 25, 2025 1:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: March 21-23 Predictions
I thought Snow White had a $205M budget but just read it was closer to $270M. It also had a $100M marketing budget.

So $370M spent on this and made $42M OW and $86M worldwide. This makes Mickey 17's $75M loss look small in comparison. A rival studio mentioned in an article I read this should have been closer to a $1B movie. Will it get to $250M? Even Joker 2 did better relative to this.

As an aside, Dog Man made $178,715 (-36%) on Monday. $95,795,880 total. Could be at $96.5M going into the weekend. Maybe another $0.8M this weekend for $97.3M. Then another $0.7M perhaps in weekdays next week for $98M with the release of Minecraft? Ever so close but likely will need a slight push from the studio to get to $100M. Looks like it will end with $98.5M ish otherwise.
Author:  O [ Wed Mar 26, 2025 3:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: March 21-23 Predictions
Snow White +59% for $4M Tuesday.

Dumbo did +63% to $4,702,332 so it's relatively close to the pace of Dumo if not slightly behind. So My $105.5M extrapolation from yesterday is probably now closer to $103-104M. Really going to come down to the wire on if it passes $100M unless it has an extraordinary second weekend drop.
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