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February 21-23 Predictions
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=90965		 Page 1 of 2
Author:  zwackerm [ Fri Feb 14, 2025 10:06 am ]
Post subject:  February 21-23 Predictions
The Unbreakable Boy 6m
The Monkey 28m

Cap 4 -62%
Author:  Algren [ Fri Feb 14, 2025 1:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 21-23 Predictions
69% always

Yes, I'm a child :P
Author:  Shack [ Fri Feb 14, 2025 1:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 21-23 Predictions
The Monkey had pretty good material to work with, but the trailer seemed like it was trying to do too much to me and missing that King energy, and Theo James was random casting. <20 m.
Author:  Algren [ Fri Feb 14, 2025 1:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 21-23 Predictions
There's no guarantee a horror will break out at all. I'm now thinking $14m for The Monkey.

It would be shit if all the good looking horrors flop and then that one about a black woman sitting in a yard does $100m, lol
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Fri Feb 14, 2025 7:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 21-23 Predictions
Cap 4 will drop > 70%. Sunday will be slightly boosted due to President's day and its having the worst Postrak score for a MCU flick like for ever.
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Sat Feb 15, 2025 1:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: February 21-23 Predictions
Monkey looks fantastic and I hope it gets #1. Once again time for all the people who complain about "capeshit" to turn up and support something different.
Author:  Shack [ Mon Feb 17, 2025 2:03 am ]
Post subject:  Re: February 21-23 Predictions
Good reviews for the Monkey.
Author:  flip1 [ Mon Feb 17, 2025 4:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 21-23 Predictions
Monkey: 21m
Captain America 4: 24.5m
Author:  MadGez [ Mon Feb 17, 2025 5:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 21-23 Predictions
Captain America BNW: 28m
Monkey: 22m
Author:  Magic Mike [ Tue Feb 18, 2025 10:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 21-23 Predictions
I'm really hoping The Monkey does great, though I remain skeptical.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Fri Feb 21, 2025 11:48 am ]
Post subject:  Re: February 21-23 Predictions
1.9 million Thursday for The Monkey, including early preview screening figures. That's not good. Companion did 1.7 and couldn't even reach double digits. This should be able to, but I wouldn't think it would be by much. Honestly, I was taken aback by the initial tracking numbers, so this outcome isn't entirely surprising. The premise seemed too absurd for it to be a major success, and the title certainly didn't do it any favors.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Fri Feb 21, 2025 12:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 21-23 Predictions
Charlie is saying 1.3m for just thursday and 600K for early shows. Should hit low teens I think.
Author:  Shack [ Fri Feb 21, 2025 12:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 21-23 Predictions
Disappointing. It needed to somehow create a Cocaine Bear type build up for its gory comedy and family member elements, but I think it didn't quite get there in the marketing.
Author:  zwackerm [ Fri Feb 21, 2025 3:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 21-23 Predictions
If Cap 4 follows Ant Man 3 pace, it does 26m weekend for a 70.5% 2nd weekend drop.
Author:  O [ Fri Feb 21, 2025 3:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 21-23 Predictions
Valentine's Day Friday + holiday Monday feel like it could drop worse. Ant Man 3 also had the holiday Monday but just feels like it's going to have a doozy of a drop. Ant Man opened 3 days after Valentine's Day in 2023.
Author:  zwackerm [ Fri Feb 21, 2025 3:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 21-23 Predictions
O wrote:
Valentine's Day Friday + holiday Monday feel like it could drop worse. Ant Man 3 also had the holiday Monday but just feels like it's going to have a doozy of a drop. Ant Man opened 3 days after Valentine's Day in 2023.


I mean Ant-Man's pace was so bad it would be hard to do worse.
Author:  O [ Fri Feb 21, 2025 3:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 21-23 Predictions
True and the market is so empty so could hold better.

Though if it doesn't I love Hollywood spin. "It dropped badly due to incremental weather."
Author:  Shack [ Sat Feb 22, 2025 1:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 21-23 Predictions
Same drop as Ant Man 3 (-82%), but Valentine's was a week ago.

Even Paddington didn't do that good.
Author:  zwackerm [ Sat Feb 22, 2025 2:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 21-23 Predictions
Yeah it’s Saturday and Sunday week over week drop should be better.
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Sat Feb 22, 2025 7:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 21-23 Predictions
$5M for Monkey is decent but certainly no breakout. Come on peoples!
Author:  MadGez [ Sat Feb 22, 2025 11:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 21-23 Predictions
Seems like since 2024 most horror cant break past $12-15m
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Sun Feb 23, 2025 12:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: February 21-23 Predictions
MadGez wrote:
Seems like since 2024 most horror cant break past $12-15m
You sure are right about that. Quiet Place and Alien were highest grosses last year but they were both sold as action blockbusters. Longlegs and Terrifier were the only real break outs and even they had pretty niche appeal. Seems like the casual friday night horror audience just isn't there anymore :-/.
Author:  zwackerm [ Sun Feb 23, 2025 3:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 21-23 Predictions
Ant man and the wasp 3 continued to fall off a cliff after its second weekend. If Cap 4 followed its pace, it would finish with 182m. If it holds a bit better which seems likely it could finish at 190m+. 200m is still a tad out of reach though unfortunately unless no competition next weekend really helps it.
Author:  MadGez [ Sun Feb 23, 2025 5:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 21-23 Predictions
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
MadGez wrote:
Seems like since 2024 most horror cant break past $12-15m
You sure are right about that. Quiet Place and Alien were highest grosses last year but they were both sold as action blockbusters. Longlegs and Terrifier were the only real break outs and even they had pretty niche appeal. Seems like the casual friday night horror audience just isn't there anymore :-/.


Yes, which is unfortunate because the studios have doubled down on horror - this year may have a record number of horror releases (looks like it anyway). There will always be the bigger franchise openers (Conjuring, QQP, Megan etc) but it's becoming harder for these originals to break out.
Author:  Algren [ Sun Feb 23, 2025 6:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 21-23 Predictions
Algren wrote:
69%


I could get this bang-on! :funny:
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