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June 14-16 Predictions
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=90561		 Page 1 of 2
Author:  zwackerm [ Fri Jun 07, 2024 7:10 am ]
Post subject:  June 14-16 Predictions
I’m now feeling that Inside Out 2 will underperform. It hasn’t sold well around me

Inside Out 2 85m
Author:  O [ Fri Jun 07, 2024 1:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 14-16 Predictions
Expecting a bigger Elemental here. Underwhelming OW but solid legs. Should have opened a week earlier, DM4 just feels like it's going to be a monster. Given the state of Pixar, a $60M+ OW would be a win in my book here.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Fri Jun 07, 2024 1:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 14-16 Predictions
Yeah not expecting 100m anymore. I think if it's well received maybe it can do close to the first one's OW. I'll say 77m for now.
Author:  Shack [ Fri Jun 07, 2024 2:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 14-16 Predictions
I agree 80 mil is fine for this if it legs out until Despicable Me 4.
Author:  zwackerm [ Fri Jun 07, 2024 4:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 14-16 Predictions
I think the stigma of a bunch of sequels that weren’t well received from Pixar is keeping buzz for this from getting too high. In a world where this comes out before Lightyear, Toy Story 4, Incredibles 2, Cars 3 and Finding Dory, it’s easily HUGE.
Author:  Algren [ Fri Jun 07, 2024 6:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 14-16 Predictions
You guys keep reducing its bar for success, lol. Before it was $150m, then $100m, now you'll take $80m.

It's going to do poorly. Nobody wants this sequel.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Fri Jun 07, 2024 8:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 14-16 Predictions
I am definitely expecting 100m+ OW. Presales are already accelerating big time.

As of now expecting 10m ish previews and 100m+OW. Will see on wednesday if it can go higher(or if final week surge take it lower).
Author:  zwackerm [ Fri Jun 07, 2024 8:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 14-16 Predictions
Really? Buzz seems low. Our theater is still almost empty
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Fri Jun 07, 2024 9:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 14-16 Predictions
zwackerm wrote:
Really? Buzz seems low. Our theater is still almost empty


I cannot say its doing great in all theaters. But there are enough data points at this point to see it accelerate big time and where it stands to other family flicks at similar point. I think its primed for a big OW at this point.
Author:  MadGez [ Mon Jun 10, 2024 1:12 am ]
Post subject:  Re: June 14-16 Predictions
Still looks like a 75-95m opener to me. Cant see a major underperformance even though it will make less than it would have 5 years ago.
Author:  O [ Mon Jun 10, 2024 1:32 am ]
Post subject:  Re: June 14-16 Predictions
For reference, Inside Out (2015) now adjusts to about $120.3M.

So it can lose 1/2 of its audience and a $60M+ OW would still be respectable for it. The benefit it has is lowered expectations since Pixar hasn't had a breakout on the upside since TS4 in 2019.
Author:  Algren [ Mon Jun 10, 2024 11:21 am ]
Post subject:  Re: June 14-16 Predictions
Now $60m is acceptable. LOL, you guys
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Mon Jun 10, 2024 2:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 14-16 Predictions
Its definitely not decreasing from the last movie. I am at this point willing to bet on it. 100m+ is happening for sure.
Author:  Algren [ Mon Jun 10, 2024 2:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 14-16 Predictions
I do find it hard to see how it will do so well, though. Doing $100m just doesn't seem possible in 2024. Especially considering the highest opening so far this year has been $82.5m. Going to the movies just doesn't seem popular right now.
Author:  zwackerm [ Mon Jun 10, 2024 7:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 14-16 Predictions
What movie do you think would have done 100m in a normal year?

Dune is incredibly niche and it’s amazing it did 82.5m. Godzilla x Kong was never going to do 100m.

Inside out is easily the highest profile release so far this year.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Tue Jun 11, 2024 12:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 14-16 Predictions
I am now thinking even 120m OW is in play. It is behaving like Minions did in its final few days of Presales while its already at much higher level than Minions.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Tue Jun 11, 2024 1:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 14-16 Predictions
Well damn. If it does those #s I think it's more telling of how beloved Inside Out is. Nice to see.
Author:  Shack [ Tue Jun 11, 2024 4:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 14-16 Predictions
Wait a breakout hit is still possible?
Author:  flip1 [ Wed Jun 12, 2024 12:02 am ]
Post subject:  Re: June 14-16 Predictions
117m
27m for Bad Boys, Father’s Day will be big for it
Author:  O [ Wed Jun 12, 2024 1:12 am ]
Post subject:  Re: June 14-16 Predictions
By Thursday we may be about $190M away from $3B to FINALLY pass that threshold (or at least on M/Tu). That would be 33.7% of last year's box office gross with 45.1% of the calendar year done by Thursday.

The second half of the year is more promising that the first half but need some big overperformers soon.
Author:  lilmac [ Wed Jun 12, 2024 2:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 14-16 Predictions
I'll be bullish and say $100M even.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Wed Jun 12, 2024 4:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 14-16 Predictions
90% on RT. Average is 7.4 though but good enough
Author:  Rev [ Wed Jun 12, 2024 4:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 14-16 Predictions
Keyser Söze wrote:
I am now thinking even 120m OW is in play. It is behaving like Minions did in its final few days of Presales while its already at much higher level than Minions.


I’ll be overjoyed with just $100m
Author:  Shack [ Wed Jun 12, 2024 7:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 14-16 Predictions
90% is great considering some of the average reviewed PIxar movies recently
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Thu Jun 13, 2024 12:44 am ]
Post subject:  Re: June 14-16 Predictions
Based on presales seen until today I am thinking 11m previews and 125m OW. Its going Kray at this point.
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