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June 7-9 Predictions
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Author:  zwackerm [ Fri May 31, 2024 7:48 am ]
Post subject:  June 7-9 Predictions
Bad Boys Ride or Die 60m
The Watchers 15m
Author:  Algren [ Fri May 31, 2024 12:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 7-9 Predictions
Bad Boys $108m :D
Author:  O [ Fri May 31, 2024 12:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 7-9 Predictions
Seeing mega breakout for Bad Boys 2. $62M in 2020 with inflation and this feels like it's got a prime release date with little competiton. Going to go with $75M for now.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Fri May 31, 2024 1:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 7-9 Predictions
I am expecting lower opening than BB3. Probably in low 50s.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Fri May 31, 2024 1:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 7-9 Predictions
Forgot the last one opened to 60m+. Wow.

I think anything above 45m would seem solid tbh.
Author:  Shack [ Fri May 31, 2024 1:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 7-9 Predictions
Solid 50-60. Not enough young people interest to be a mega breakout.
Author:  O [ Fri May 31, 2024 2:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 7-9 Predictions
I don't think this needs that much young interest to be successful. It's a 29 year old franchise with huge fanbase with 70% of its BB3 OW non-Caucasian.

Also remember that tracking was WAY off on the last film:
83% more than the $40M+ projection that tracking was seeing 1 week earlier for BB3
-46% above the $50M forecast that tracking had for the threequel on Thursday.

Demos for BB3:
-South and the South Central (#1 theater in Atlanta).
-56% male, 58% under 35, largest demo 25-34 at 33%.
-42% African American, 30% Caucasian, 18% Hispanic, and 10% Asian/Other.

This is essentially close to the Fast franchise crowd. Have gotten a fair bit older but 70%+ this weekend could be non-Caucasian.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Fri May 31, 2024 2:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 7-9 Predictions
So far Presales have lagged the last movie. That came after 2 decades from 1st 2 and so there was nostalgia at play. This is coming after 4 years. Last movie released just before pandemic. Will Smith's equity is unfortunately down from that time as well.

I am expecting a good finish and walkups. Still its going to open lower.
Author:  O [ Fri May 31, 2024 2:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 7-9 Predictions
I don't think his core demographics care about the Oscar slap anymore TBH. I also think him being so low profile since that time will help from a curiosity factor rather than being as much of a turnoff if it came out in 2022.

Also had some movie breakouts in the previous month and a half from a healthier Christmas slate 1917, Jumanji 2, and SW9 (2 $400M+ movies).

We'll be lucky to get ONE $100M+ film in the two months before BB4's release. Think it's going to break out from a tried and true buddy cop formula.

I will give it to BB3 though that it benefitted from MLK weekend (inflated weekend on Sunday especially) but still feel BB4 has some room to surprise on the upside.
Author:  KC [ Fri May 31, 2024 5:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 7-9 Predictions
After the slap heard round the world this will be Will Smith's first true test to see if people still want to see him. I think he is still toxic and this will disappoint or flat out bomb.

25 m
Author:  flip1 [ Mon Jun 03, 2024 2:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 7-9 Predictions
Bad Boys: 54m
Watchers: 13m
Author:  MadGez [ Mon Jun 03, 2024 7:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 7-9 Predictions
This is a bit hard to gauge but probably $60m give or take a few million.

For BO's sake, hope it goes higher.

Watchers should be the biggest horror opener of the year so far - $15m.
Author:  lilmac [ Mon Jun 03, 2024 10:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 7-9 Predictions
publicenemy#1 wrote:
Forgot the last one opened to 60m+. Wow.

I think anything above 45m would seem solid tbh.



That was right before the pandemic too. Great timing.
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