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Monkey Man/First Omen weekend thread
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=90487		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Fri Apr 05, 2024 12:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Monkey Man/First Omen weekend thread
Monkey Man - 1.4m
First Omen - 725k
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Fri Apr 05, 2024 1:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monkey Man/First Omen weekend thread
Decent for Monkey though probably not enough for $20M.

Omen is a flop? Hopefully that's because horror fans are patiently waiting for the much more interesting looking Abigail.
Author:  O [ Fri Apr 05, 2024 2:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monkey Man/First Omen weekend thread
The Omen should have done a dumb campaign related to the eclipse on Monday. I remember The Omen opened June 6, 2006 and was actually pretty effective ($12,633,666 opening day on a TUESDAY). It's actual 3day weekend after that was $16,026,496 so these gimmicks work! For a reminder, that beat ID4 for the biggest Tuesday of all time!

Monkey Man is just way too close to GvsK for a massive opening but getting to a John Wick type OW would be a good start as April is lighter and there's room for legs.
Author:  MadGez [ Fri Apr 05, 2024 6:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monkey Man/First Omen weekend thread
High teens for Monkey would be solid. It should have decent legs.

I really hope Abigail can break out now.
Author:  O [ Fri Apr 05, 2024 8:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monkey Man/First Omen weekend thread
Deadline has GvsK at an 80% Friday drop. It was Easter but yikes. Expecting 65% weekend drop. $200M would be tough with that drop. Needs a 3.9X multiplier after.

Godzilla $7.5M -80% / $25-28M / $128M-131M
Monkey Man $4.3M / $10.5M
First Omen $3M / $8M-10M
Ghostbusters $2.2M -59% / $7.8M / $87.6M
KFP4 at $1.9M -34% / $6.8M / $165M

Ghostbusters at least would have $100M locked down. KFP4 is it holds well enough this month can maybe leg it out to a big tally. Needs a 6.15X multiplier to get to $200M so would need under 20% holds soon.
Author:  Jmart [ Fri Apr 05, 2024 10:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monkey Man/First Omen weekend thread
I'm a little surprised GxK would fall that hard. I thought I was in the minority for not liking it (among general audiences). Then again it's probably not the kind of movie people see, like, and then rush out again to see it. Paying for it once in a high premium format was probably the "movie for the month" for most people.

Just saw Monkey Man. I hope it does well, but I think the violence is going to turn some people off. A couple walked out in my showing.

And without having seen The First Omen yet, based on the fact that it seems to be good, I hope it will have some legs. I feel like people are waiting for The Fall Guy and to a slightly lesser extent, Civil War.
Author:  zwackerm [ Fri Apr 05, 2024 10:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monkey Man/First Omen weekend thread
The Sunday and Saturday drops will be especially light. Friday last week was inflated. It’s not a fair comparison imo.
Author:  O [ Sat Apr 06, 2024 11:00 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Monkey Man/First Omen weekend thread
Friday estimates (BOR)

1 Godzilla X Kong $8.50M / $111.84M -76.9%
2 Monkey Man $4.25M
3 Ghostbusters $2.43M / $82.29M -55.8%
4 KF4 $2.25M / $160.46 -42.9%
5 Dune $2.00M / $259.66M -44.4%
6 The First Omen TBD

ER weekend estimates (I don't know why they don't post Friday #'s first?)

1. GODZILLA X KONG ($30M)
2, MONKEY MAN ($10M)
3. GHOSTBUSTER: FE ($9M)
4. KUNG FU PANDA 4 ($8.9M)
5. THE FIRST OMEN ($8.5M)

Godzilla (2021) had a 3.53X Friday/weekend multiplier post Easter. If this follows, GvK gets $30.0M on the dot (-62.5%).
Author:  Shack [ Sat Apr 06, 2024 12:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monkey Man/First Omen weekend thread
Pretty meh openers as expected

Ghostbusters fading fast.
Author:  O [ Sat Apr 06, 2024 8:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monkey Man/First Omen weekend thread
If KFP4 follows it's Friday to weekend pattern of 2 weeks ago (non-holiday), it could end up pulling a -12% drop. From there it would need a 4.91X multiplier to get to $200M so if that materializes this weekend it's still got a chance. I feel better about KFP reaching it than Godzilla based on these dailies.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Sun Apr 07, 2024 1:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monkey Man/First Omen weekend thread
GxK's drop isn't horrendous. it could hit 200m if it holds well rest of month.
Author:  Shack [ Sun Apr 07, 2024 3:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monkey Man/First Omen weekend thread
Probably about as good as Godzilla could hope for

First Omen is disappointing
Author:  MadGez [ Sun Apr 07, 2024 7:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monkey Man/First Omen weekend thread
ZillxKong should get to $190-$205m which is great IMO.
Author:  O [ Mon Apr 08, 2024 12:44 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Monkey Man/First Omen weekend thread
Even at $8.3M, that's Disney's biggest movie of the year so far. :sweat:

Kind of makes me worried about their situation if they had the resources and a well reviewed film and botched this release. Planet of the Apes is the only film before Inside Out 2 but really feels like something went wrong.

Take out Friday and KFP4 would have averaged to a 13% drop on Sat/Sun. Sunday PTA drop was only 7% so bodes very well for holds this month. Random bit of trivia, if KFP4 legs it out to $200M, it will be DWA's first $200M domestic performance since Madagascar 3 in 2012. It will also be their 4th $200M+ film ever outside of the Shrek franchise (Mad3, Dragon1 and KFP1). Impressive considering KFP1 had a $130M budget, Mad3 $145M, and Dragon1 $165M vs KFP4's $85M.
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