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Valentine's Week #'s
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Author:  O [ Wed Feb 14, 2024 5:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Valentine's Week #'s
From DHD:

Marley $12M

Madame Web $5M-5.5M

For mid week Valentine's Day, that breaks 2012's The Vow.

Pretty impressive for Marley even if it's going to fall a lot!

RT audience score for Marley is 96% vs 65% for Web.
Author:  zwackerm [ Wed Feb 14, 2024 6:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Valentine's Week #'s
Great penultimate pick in the draft for me.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Wed Feb 14, 2024 10:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Valentine's Week #'s
Wow. The Bob Marley film is packed all around me. Ecstatic I won't see the trailer anymore!
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Thu Feb 15, 2024 1:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Valentine's Week #'s
Charlie is saying 14/6 for Marley and Web. Really good for both movies. Marley simply blew up big time in past few days.
Author:  O [ Thu Feb 15, 2024 1:59 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Valentine's Week #'s
I hope it ends up at $14.14M for Valentine's Day. :wub2:

$20M on a Wed from two openers + holdovers could be bigger than last weekend.

One Love's total is hard to pin down but with a $14M start it's now watercooler movie until Dune. Biopics are alive and well! Some stats to gauge rough ball park of where it could end up:

-For $14M+ opening days, the worst opening day to total multiplier ever is Halloween Ends which made 31.8% of its total on opening day. If Marley followed that, it would finish with $44M. So at least we'll get a $50M+ total here in all likeliness.
-Average % of total for $14M+ openers is 13.83%, meaning if Marley follows that it's total would be $101.23M. Not likely given the frontloadedness of Valentine's Day.
-Only 28 movies have ever opened to $14M+ in Jan/Feb!
-21 movies in Feb have opened to $14m+.
-23/28 movies opening in Jan/Feb with $14m+ opening days have made $100M+.
-26/28 movies that opened in Jan/Feb with $14M+ opening day made $80M+. Only Devil Inside and Friday The 13th missed that.

Rough ballpark purely from opening day, we could see a $70-75M total from Marley?
Author:  zwackerm [ Thu Feb 15, 2024 8:25 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Valentine's Week #'s
Marley is gonna crash, it’s not a good movie at all lol.
Author:  mark66 [ Thu Feb 15, 2024 9:11 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Valentine's Week #'s
Keyser Söze wrote:
Charlie is saying 14/6 for Marley and Web. Really good for both movies. Marley simply blew up big time in past few days.

Agree... Seeing $13.95m and $5.95m right now... ANYONE BUT YOU is up by almost 150 % compared to Tuesday...
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Thu Feb 15, 2024 11:35 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Valentine's Week #'s
RT audience scores: Madame Web, 59% and Marley 95%.

I saw Madame Web last night and it truly is bizarre how something like that could get made today.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Thu Feb 15, 2024 12:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Valentine's Week #'s
Deadline estimates are pretty much the same; Marley 14m Web 6.05m
Author:  Magic Mike [ Thu Feb 15, 2024 12:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Valentine's Week #'s
zwackerm wrote:
Marley is gonna crash, it’s not a good movie at all lol.


Audiences are loving it. But I do still think it will crash.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Thu Feb 15, 2024 12:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Valentine's Week #'s
Anyone But You's VD was 1.165m. Think it'll just miss 100m but still, phenomenal run.
Author:  O [ Thu Feb 15, 2024 2:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Valentine's Week #'s
ABY really needed a bigger spike to keep it's hopes alive for $100M. Still an incredible performance to be at $82M off of a $6M weekend, but would have been great to see a $100M finish for it.

I feel like at best it could do a $2M upcoming weekend and maybe $300K tomorrow for $84.3M. Maybe $1M in dailies next week and then $1.5M the following weekend, and another $500K from there and its at $87.3M once Dune arrives and the March onslaught of films. Looking like a $90-92M finish I think.
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Valentine's Week #'s
Good to see at least one movie break out in this wasteland of a February. We knew One Love wouldn't be a good movie after it moved out of oscar season, but give it up to the studio for finding a spot where it would perform well anyway.
Author:  zwackerm [ Thu Feb 15, 2024 10:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Valentine's Week #'s
Does anyone know how much stuff fell today?
Author:  O [ Thu Feb 15, 2024 11:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Valentine's Week #'s
Charlie is saying $3.75M THU for Marley. 2 day $17.75M. Expects $40-45M 5-day weekend. 6-day $50M.

Web $2.2M. 2 day $8.25M. $21-24M 5-day weekend.

VERY good for Marley even with that drop. Marley's $14M also had NO preshows. Cinemascore A, 95% RT audiences, 5/5 PostTrack. Looks like audiences are loving it.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Valentine's Week #'s
Marley is doing very well. I wonder how its going to hold post OW. It would be amazing if it can have a good run towards 100m domestic. Even overseas numbers for VD have been promising in Europe.

Web is the most predictable disaster we have had recently. I dont think its making Morbius OW as its domestic total or even 100m WW.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:56 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Valentine's Week #'s
Madame Web's 80m budget sounds too high lol the movie looks so budget but I guess most of that budget was the cast.
Author:  O [ Sat Feb 17, 2024 1:04 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Valentine's Week #'s
Friday #'s from Charlie:

Marley $7.25M / $25.1M / $39M - $41M (5day)
Madam Web $4M+ / $12.3M / $20M - 21M (5day)

Marley's already made 41.5% of The Color Purple's total. $29M first 3 days for TCP with a $18M opening day ($4M ahead of Marley) so could well outpace TCP by day 5.

Marley also looks like it will outgross KOTFM so will be Paramount's biggest movie since TMNT in August and until at least If in mid May. Crazy that it will be the studio's biggest movie over a 9 month period.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Sat Feb 17, 2024 1:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Valentine's Week #'s
Lisa Frankenstein is unfortunate. Totally will be a cult classic in the future.

Wonka, Beekeeper and ABY all had decent drops.

A 4m first Friday for Madame Web is awful. At least Marley is doing decently.
Author:  O [ Sat Feb 17, 2024 1:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Valentine's Week #'s
The fact that Migration has a *slight* chance at making it to the top 3 again for the 4day long weekend (from 8th place last weekend) shows you just how big a family movie is needed along with Wonka's 3% drop (as well as how bad this market is). Migration's PTA went up 26% this Friday and it hasn't made the top 3 since New Year's weekend.

Marley is headed for maybe $45M for the 6day. It looks really good to me and depending on how it holds next weekend maybe it can pull off $80M+. Doesn't look at all based on the Friday # it's going to be a Color Purple.

ABY lost 28% of its theaters but holding to a 31% drop is great. It's PTA only dropped 4% so there was definitely more $$ on the table.
Author:  Shack [ Sat Feb 17, 2024 2:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Valentine's Week #'s
Migration has held up pretty solid

I guess it makes sense that Marley was going to have a Rocketman type run, why not?

So you have a Liam Hemsworth/Russell Crowe Australian actioner with no marketing in Land of Bad that sneaks its way into 1,000 theatres, and this is the January/February weekend you choose to release it on?
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Sat Feb 17, 2024 2:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Valentine's Week #'s
Kung Fu Panda 4 should be fine given there's not much for families right now. Will probably open small but have great legs
Author:  O [ Sun Feb 18, 2024 12:43 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Valentine's Week #'s
Sat #'s from Charlie:

Marley $11.5M / $37M (4day) / $44M-45M (5day) / $48M-50M (6day)

That's VERY good for Marley. Maybe it has a chance at $100M if it holds enough next week...even if it has a 2.5X multiplier from this 3day weekend on could get to $87M.

Madam Web $6M+ / $18.5M (4day) / $23M (5day) / $25M+ (6day)

Not horrendous for Web TBH. It's 4day day will be bigger than its opening day. We knew it was going to disappointment but its holding well enough.

Migration $1.75M+ / $4M (3day +35%) / $113.5M total / Final $125M+

Fantastic for Migration with a 35% spike. Will be at $116M by Monday.

The most interesting stats for me are that Marley is skewing more toward female audiences and Madam Web is skewing more toward male audiences. Marley is playing strongly with African Americans and Latino audiences. Purple was almost 65% African Americans vs Marley's closer to 40% so clearly its branching out to a breadth of audiences across the country.
Author:  Shack [ Sun Feb 18, 2024 1:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Valentine's Week #'s
Great for Migration

ABY headed for 200 million+ WW! (currently at 188)
Author:  O [ Sun Feb 18, 2024 2:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Valentine's Week #'s
Marley could have outopened Elvis! $100M? Playing well across demos. Maybe $54M first week.

Web is holding decently. Sat was bigger than opening day so seems to be playing like a family film.

Wonka passed $600M globally. Migration is on the cusp of a 10X multiplier. PTA went up 39.6%!

Beekeeper has a 3.61X multiplier. That was not on my box office bingo card.

ABY had a 28% theater drop and 9% weekend drop! PTA increase of +26.6%. It's 9th weekend PTA is -39.1% from weekend #1.

3 Christmas movies in the top 8. Will spend 10th and 11th weekends there next weekend as well.

The Taste of Things made $601K (3day) from 505 theaters, $701K (4day), $1.16M (6 day). It's a crowdpleaser so maybe WOM can give it a decent run.
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