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Flash/Elemental weekend thread
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=90047		 Page 1 of 5
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Fri Jun 16, 2023 2:10 am ]
Post subject:  Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Deadline saying 9m for Flash, 3.5m for Elemental.

Hopefully for the weekend Flash/Elemental/Blackening combine for like $110m+

Keen to see how holdovers do!
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Fri Jun 16, 2023 2:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Just barely above Transformers is crazy.

Pretty decent for Elemental though? Lightyear had a 10x preview multiplier and I'd expect Elemental to be much less frontloaded. Would be cool to see it hit $40M though it'll probably be in the $37-39M range.
Author:  Shack [ Fri Jun 16, 2023 2:45 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Seems bad for the Flash
Author:  O [ Fri Jun 16, 2023 3:02 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
At least it will likely outgross Shazam in its OW. Thank you Shazam for making all other movies disappointing this year have an out. :funny:
Author:  MadGez [ Fri Jun 16, 2023 5:54 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Bad for Flash but good for Elemental.

WB/DC announcing the new DC regime + Ezra Miller allegations ultimately hurt it.

Should have been a $250m grosser but now beating Black Adam should be it’s first check mark. It can go beyond that with decent legs.
Author:  Rev [ Fri Jun 16, 2023 8:15 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
After seeing The Flash yesturday I'M EVEN MORE PISSED OFF AT ZASLAV FOR CANCELLING BATGIRL :grrr:
because Keaton kicked ass as BATMAN! :wub2: I want to see more of him and can't because of FUCK FACE ZASLAV :grrr:
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Fri Jun 16, 2023 10:14 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
As I posted in prediction thread, Deadline early preview numbers tend to be off. Comscore does not show data for previews in real time as its part of Friday number :-) They are low on Flash and too high on Elemental !!!
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Fri Jun 16, 2023 11:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
$9.7m for Flash. That should be good for $70m+ but we'll see.

Spiderverse dropping only 18% despite Flash opening is pretty great.

And yeah, $2.4m for Elemental.
Author:  Algren [ Fri Jun 16, 2023 11:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Shit for Flash. I was expecting so much more :(
Author:  Algren [ Fri Jun 16, 2023 12:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
I think Sinclair and co. can say bye-bye to $150 million. It's dropping 1,282 theatres this weekend, and with being in the blockbuster months its going to be forgotten very quickly.
Author:  O [ Fri Jun 16, 2023 12:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Spider-verse is catering to The Flash's audience and it was WAY too close to it IMO. Really mindboggling that neither Flash or Elemental thought to move back 1 week after the buzz and hype was going up for Spider-verse. It's made $252M in 2 weeks going into its 3rd weekend. Surely they had a better chance with IJ5 in their second weekend AND a holiday weekend cushion in their second weekend! Is No Hard Feelings projected to do Hunger Games box office or something? I must have missed that tracking memo. :P

On top of the Ezra issues, really momentum is a powerful thing at the box office. Movies spring upward or downward based on their predecessors.

Think Uncharted post Spider-man. Or Alice post Avatar as the next big 3D movie blockbuster. Here on the other end, you had Black Adam, then Shazam leading into The Flash. Add in bad buzz from fans on DC project cancelations. It should have seriously considered moving to August and the fact they didn't see the writing on the wall after Shazam's performance that maybe they needed a less crowded release date is a major goof up (on top of all the goof ups at WB).

I do think Spider-verse's impact here is >>> Ezra. And Black Adam + Shazam >>>>>>>>>>> Ezra
Author:  Barrabás [ Fri Jun 16, 2023 1:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Flash has a $220M budget so they better hope overseas numbers are huge...
Author:  Shack [ Fri Jun 16, 2023 2:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Ezra didn't help but I think the gas is just out of the balloon for superhero movies
Author:  O [ Fri Jun 16, 2023 3:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Next weekend could really be a free for all on who's going to be #1. I'm all for it.

Can No Hard Feelings massively overperform and pull a surprise (likely not)?

Will The Flash fall off a cliff out of the #1 spot?

Can Elemental hold well off of WOM or good reception to have an insane hold to make a run for #1?

Can Transformers defy its lackluster dailies and become a weekend movie with better than expected holds (likely not)?

Will Spider-verse have a great hold this weekend that can keep it in the running for #1 next weekend?

Feel like Elemental has a decent shot the worse Flash does in terms of frontloadedness this weekend. Animation for the win yet again in June if that happens.

Something like this as a hypothetical of what a packed top 6 would look like:

Flash $28.5M -62%
Elemental $26.6M -30%
Spider-verse $24.1M -30%
No Hard Feelings $18M
Transformers $14M -40%
TLM $10M -30%
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Fri Jun 16, 2023 5:49 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
If The Flash flops then we're all going to have to have a serious discussion about how much trailers actually matter. Cause those things have been blowin up the net for months now.

Also, Elemental dropping by over $1M from early estimates can't be a good sign. My hopes of it going over $40M are probably dead and even $30M might be a fight.
Author:  Corpse [ Fri Jun 16, 2023 6:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
WOM will be interesting for Flash. I see a solid number of people who are on board the "one of the great comic book movies I've ever seen" train, and then those at a different station entirely. I guess you can call it a mixed reaction, but mixed usually implies most are in the middle somewhere. Seems fairly equally split between "masterpiece" and "disappointment" to me right now.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Fri Jun 16, 2023 6:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Deadline is saying $26m for Flash and $11m for Elemental.
Author:  zwackerm [ Fri Jun 16, 2023 7:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
That would at least get Elemental to 30m to be the highest original animated movie post pandemic opening, which is still Encanto.

and likely 100m. Which is still not great but not terrible compared to other original animated movies post pandemic.

Highest opening for a non IP film post pandemic is still Nope’s 44m
Author:  O [ Fri Jun 16, 2023 7:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Elemental missing $100M in any circumstance is horrendous. It would be a shoes drop moment.

-$200M budget
-Only the second Pixar movie ever to miss $100M after Onward which all but certainly would have if not for Covid off of a $39M OW (likely dented by fears of Covid as well).
-Pixar's lowest OW since 1995 with the original TS1 at $29M. That had a Wed Thanksgiving opening.
-Even if an original IP, both Mario and Spider-verse opened to $120M+ in the last two months. Animation is hot right now. Puss's total at nearly $185M also plays into animation's momentum.
-$51M OW from Lightyear last year seen as a colossal disappointment.

I can forgive OW but it needs some nice holds for a respectable run and has to find its way to $100M+. LY was a disaster. If it can get past there Pixar can save some face.
Author:  zwackerm [ Fri Jun 16, 2023 7:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Flash already has a lower audience score on RT than black Adam and on par with Ant man through the same point. I don’t think WOM will be better than meh. Comic book movies have such inflated audience scores that anything below 90 isn’t great.
Author:  Barrabás [ Fri Jun 16, 2023 8:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
I told y’all Keaton as Batman was not a draw.

Horrible numbers for both openers. DC is hanging on by a thread at this point and Pixar’s brand value is dead.
Author:  Excel [ Fri Jun 16, 2023 8:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Struggling to think of a weekend where broader industry changes were on display than this one. The mighty Pixar has been terribly wounded. DC is very, very messy. Superhero overload clearly caught up to generation Z.

But on the other hand, Spiderverse is a certified megahit.

The times, they are a changing...
Author:  Excel [ Fri Jun 16, 2023 8:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
zwackerm wrote:
Flash already has a lower audience score on RT than black Adam and on par with Ant man through the same point. I don’t think WOM will be better than meh. Comic book movies have such inflated audience scores that anything below 90 isn’t great.


There is a base of real glowing enthusiasm here though. It has some haters weighing it down. We'll see what happens.
Author:  zwackerm [ Fri Jun 16, 2023 9:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Flash is truly disastrous. At least Elemental is doing on the low end of expectations. Flash is doing a little more than half of guardians and spiderverse
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Fri Jun 16, 2023 9:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Flash/Elemental weekend thread
Thinking Flash doing $100m+ OW was really ridiculous looking back. I was jazzed about it because the trailers looked really good but I think the film itself wasn't a slam dunk, which is what it needed to be in order to do well (no Ezra drama and if they didn't announce a reboot before all these films came out then I think it would've done closer to Aquaman's domestic total)
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