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| Weekend Estimates! http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=87820 |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:32 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Weekend Estimates! |
https://m.the-numbers.com/box-office-ch ... 2021/01/29 The Little Things - 4.8m Croods 2 - 1.8 (+2.2%) WW1984 - 1.3 (-19%) ... that actually seems decent for Little Things? Guess it's 'cause of Denzel. Honestly under normal circumstances this seemed like a low teens opening at best. With WW1984 doubling HBO Max subscribers and Little Things having a "higher" pandemic opening maybe this release strategy may work out. Hmmmm |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:01 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates! |
That’s pretty darn good for The Little Things. I doubt it would have made much more even if they didn’t put it on HBO. The Croods chugging along despite being out on itunes for a month is another good sign. Should pass Tenet by the end of the month. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Sun Jan 31, 2021 6:32 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates! |
The Croods is doing really well and as I predicted earlier it will outgross Tenet in the end somehow the kids movies are doing really well. Studios should try to add more of them in theatrical window. Given the openings of rest of the movies during the last few months I guess The Little Things feel into the same opening range so I don't think it's that impressive. Wonder Woman didn't get any boost being out of HBO Max maybe WB should rethink that strategy because it makes no sense to remove a movie after one month. They could easily entice casual audience with big titles like these similar to what Disney and Netflix are doing. |
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| Author: | Thegun [ Sun Jan 31, 2021 6:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates! |
In normal circumstances I think little things would have opened to like 35 million. That was like the perfect January release type of movie. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Sun Jan 31, 2021 7:03 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates! |
Denzel movies in January do open well yet $35m seems a little high to me. I would have guessed low-to-mid 20's but given the supporting cast and good trailers it had potential to open higher maybe around high-20's. Don't think it would have crossed $30m mark. |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Sun Jan 31, 2021 7:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates! |
Uh even if this had amazing reviews this would not touch over 30m opening. |
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| Author: | Thegun [ Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates! |
Oh come on, Denzel's first film in 3 years, slickly marketed thriller with a creepy turn by Jared Leto in the dumping ground of January, it would have been a no brainer home run. Contraband nearly opened to 25 million in a similar timeframe. The Liam Neeson films were pretty consistent in the low teens opening, but this was first genuine film being released I would have considered checking out in Covid cinema. Worst case scenario would have been Inside Man type run, and that was what 28/85 total. Denzel's fans are loyal in any genre any time period when he jumps back from arthouse to mainstream, so ok, 28-32 opening. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates! |
Its either regular times or its COVID time can't pick and choose for the prediction(s). Denzel's recent movies have been consistent in $20m-$30m mark. Also both the other movies that you mentioned did below $30m and that's what I think it would have done, $20m-$30m range. I do not think Rami Malek and Jared Leto have any pull at BO yet. |
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| Author: | Thegun [ Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates! |
Agree that it's pointless to argue over a fantasy. My only point was this is the first real film getting theatrically released that would have been a big surprise box office wise. Had a lot of good going for it. |
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| Author: | Excel [ Mon Feb 01, 2021 6:48 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates! |
I don't think a 6-7x multiplier from Covid to real life is unreasonable to say. $4.8 in Covid times is 100% > $30m in normal times. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Mon Feb 01, 2021 7:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates! |
Indeed it is. There is no way a movie like The War With Grandpa would have opened 6 times its COVID multiplier |
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