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COVID-19 and box office
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Author:  mark66 [ Thu Feb 20, 2020 8:05 am ]
Post subject:  COVID-19 and box office

So China's box office is already dead (running 80 % below 2019 after 7 weeks and the gap is widening as most theaters are still closed) and now comes news that the mayor of Daegu (South Korea) asked her 2.5m citizens to stay at home as infections exploded in the last couple of days - is South Korea the next market to implode?

Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Thu Feb 20, 2020 10:48 am ]
Post subject:  Re: COVID-19 and box office

Singapore BO has also been down almost 80% but the market is so small and the numbers are so inconsistently available here that mostly no one bothers

Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Fri Feb 21, 2020 1:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: COVID-19 and box office

Just saw that SK had a HUGE spike in number of cases yesterday and surpassed Singapore as #3 country infected by COVID. Would definitely impact the BO at this rate specially the infected places are churches which are similar to theaters in terms of group gathering. Here in SG to avoid the infections theaters are doing mandatory checks before you enter the hall but the amount of people is so very small its manageable. Regardless I saw more kids and people for Sonic than BoP.

Author:  Keyser Söze [ Fri Feb 21, 2020 3:13 am ]
Post subject:  Re: COVID-19 and box office

you are brave to go and see movies at theaters when there are infections at public places like hotels and churches. Take care man. I hope you are at least wearing mask.

Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Fri Feb 21, 2020 3:42 am ]
Post subject:  Re: COVID-19 and box office

Thanks but contrary to the belief masks (and gloves) aren't going to help for this virus. Mostly when you breathe into masks they become hot and moist which is the perfect breeding grounds for any virus. Masks help if you are sick and have flu symptoms from spreading from you to others and its recommended to wear those when you are unwell. COVID specially is spread through touch and water droplets through sweat, cough, sneeze, which is why its recommended to keep your hands clean because those will easily get infection by touching infected objects. You cannot breathe in the virus which is why I am avoiding crowded places (the theaters right now are not crowded :D); I get a single row to myself, clean the seat handles and sanitize my hands before and after. With proper hygiene its possible to avoid this virus though yeah most times I am still at home. Thanks for wishes :thumbsup: I hope it gets over soon.

Author:  Bluebomb [ Fri Feb 21, 2020 4:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: COVID-19 and box office

Hong Kong box office has been pretty dead for at least 3 weeks, starting on the 4th day of Chinese New Year onward. No point in reporting box office figures there when average admissions per showing are below 30 mostly or sometimes 20.

Most movie theaters here are implementing more stringent measures like alternate row seating/longer interval time between showings to disinfectant seats, checking temperature and right to refuse admission if people aren't wearing masks.

Author:  mark66 [ Fri Feb 21, 2020 6:11 am ]
Post subject:  Re: COVID-19 and box office

I just read that Iran has a huge C-19 problem as well (schools being closed etc.). Looks to me like the fight is being lost and that all countries will suffer sooner or later and with it the b.o....

Author:  mark66 [ Fri Feb 21, 2020 1:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: COVID-19 and box office

I guess it's just a question of time when distributors start canceling the next openings in SK:

Daily Top Ten admissions:

281,387 Thursday Feb. 13th
347,552 Friday Feb. 14th (+24 %)

211,271 Thursday Feb. 20th
188,050 Friday Feb. 21st (-11 %)*

*Two weeks ago (without the Valentines Day effect) Friday jumped 9 % from Thursday...

Author:  Keyser Söze [ Fri Feb 21, 2020 2:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: COVID-19 and box office

Even Italy seem to be hit hard. 15 cases in past 24 hours and towns placed on lockdown. I dont know if china level lockdown is possible elsewhere. Its looking grim for sure.

Author:  mark66 [ Sat Feb 22, 2020 5:16 am ]
Post subject:  Re: COVID-19 and box office

So the first release date was cancelled in SK - I guess it's only a matter of time until the first theater chain decides to close its theaters...

Author:  i.hope [ Sat Feb 22, 2020 4:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: COVID-19 and box office

Jack Sparrow wrote:
Just saw that SK had a HUGE spike in number of cases yesterday and surpassed Singapore as #3 country infected by COVID.


I think Japan is either #2 or #3.

The thing is that there are many unknowns. People who are exposed to the virus but do not show symptoms can be infectious. We do not know how long the virus can stay in a human body without the carrier showing any symptom. We do not know the cure.

Author:  i.hope [ Sat Feb 22, 2020 4:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: COVID-19 and box office

Jack Sparrow wrote:
Thanks but contrary to the belief masks (and gloves) aren't going to help for this virus. Mostly when you breathe into masks they become hot and moist which is the perfect breeding grounds for any virus. Masks help if you are sick and have flu symptoms from spreading from you to others and its recommended to wear those when you are unwell.


I think everyone should wear masks in public places if there are signs the community is hit by the virus. A person can be a carrier without showing symptoms.

Also, hot and humid weather kills seasonal flu, a third of which is caused by coronaviruses.

Quote:
But he says COVID-19 seems more akin to the seasonal cold. And up to a third of common colds are caused by coronaviruses.

"We've seen, basically, explosive spread inside China of person-to-person transmission, so — in that sense — it really is behaving like a common-cold causing coronavirus," says Adalja.

For that reason, he says, "I do think seasonality will play a role. As this outbreak unfolds and we approach spring and summer, I do think we will see some tapering off of cases."

So as China and the rest of the Northern Hemisphere head into spring, the virus could begin to peter out or plateau. But the southern half of the globe is headed into fall and winter "so we may see this [virus] have increased transmission" in parts of the southern hemisphere, says Adalja — for example, in Australia. That's similar to what happens with the flu each year.

"It's not unreasonable to make the assumption" that cases will die down come spring, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told NPR. "We hope when the weather gets warmer it will diminish a bit," he says.

But he sounds a cautionary note: "However, we don't know that about this [new] coronavirus. We don't have [a] backlog of history."


https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/12/805256402/can-coronavirus-be-crushed-by-warmer-weather

Author:  mark66 [ Sat Feb 22, 2020 5:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: COVID-19 and box office

i.hope wrote:

I think Japan is either #2 or #3.


If your looking for up to date statistics:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

Author:  Barrabás [ Sat Feb 22, 2020 5:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: COVID-19 and box office

South Korea and Italy are the next markets to get fucked up.

If this goes Spanish Flu level (which it looks like it might...) then box office is going to be completely fucked for the entire next year. Hollywood having mass layoffs will be the least of our worries with the global recession this will cause, not to mention the virus itself.

Interesting times are ahead.

Author:  Barrabás [ Sat Feb 22, 2020 5:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: COVID-19 and box office

Keyser Söze wrote:
Even Italy seem to be hit hard. 15 cases in past 24 hours and towns placed on lockdown. I dont know if china level lockdown is possible elsewhere. Its looking grim for sure.

This is the main problem, it's one thing for China to seal off entire mega cities, build blockades on bridges, seal people in apartment blocks, build hospitals in 10 days, etc., but basically no other country can do that. Once it goes nuclear in a couple other countries it's over for everyone else unless governments seal their borders but that won't happen until it's too late.

If you have asthma, are/were a heavy smoker, or are over 65, I would suggest finding a cabin somewhere in the middle of nowhere and making plans to move there in case shit really hits the fan.

Author:  i.hope [ Sat Feb 22, 2020 5:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: COVID-19 and box office

mark66 wrote:
i.hope wrote:

I think Japan is either #2 or #3.


If your looking for up to date statistics:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6


SK is #2 now. Oh no...

Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sat Feb 22, 2020 6:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: COVID-19 and box office

Yeah the number of cases in SK keeps jumping. This will soon become serious in Italy as well

Author:  DP07 [ Sat Feb 22, 2020 11:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: COVID-19 and box office

It’s spread in Singapore, near the equator, so it’s probably spreading in Indonesia, Cambodia, and Africa undetected; although perhaps not at the same rate and with milder symptoms. So it may slow in spring and summer but re-emerge in the fall in multiple locations around the globe. Then it would be more widespread and have more runway through the winter.

Fatally rate is around 2 for detected cases, but it could be lower with most cases going undiagnosed. Among doctors in Wuhan it is about 0.3%. That might be more accurate.

Author:  i.hope [ Sun Feb 23, 2020 12:17 am ]
Post subject:  Re: COVID-19 and box office

Other countries can learn from Taiwan and Macau, where containment measures seemed to have limited the spread of the virus. Also, people should be more conscious about hygiene. Wash hands with soap, wear face masks, avoid touching your own face, limit physical contact with people.

Author:  Mau [ Sun Feb 23, 2020 12:17 am ]
Post subject:  Re: COVID-19 and box office

It's not a deadly virus. Like at all. It shouldn't affect us this much.

Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sun Feb 23, 2020 12:59 am ]
Post subject:  Re: COVID-19 and box office

Its deadly, many people have died.

Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:13 am ]
Post subject:  Re: COVID-19 and box office

I guess we'll see how the mortality rate is other than what China has reported (cause who knows how accurate it is) but yeah, people are dying.

Author:  DP07 [ Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:23 am ]
Post subject:  Re: COVID-19 and box office

They will need to test an entire population for virus related antibodies to know how many cases there really were.

Author:  Keyser Söze [ Sun Feb 23, 2020 3:46 am ]
Post subject:  Re: COVID-19 and box office

it seems to hit hard people with immune deficiency or old people with diabetes and other conditions. Otherwise I am hearing its less deadly than seasonal flu which kills thousands every year. But the scary part is scale of infection because of asymptomatic infections. So even with low mortality rate, number of deaths go spiral out of control if the spread cannot be controlled.

I hope Korea, Italy and Singapore get things in control. At least we can believe data coming out of these countries.

Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sun Feb 23, 2020 4:14 am ]
Post subject:  Re: COVID-19 and box office

Singapore has done everything it could to control this. The biggest population here is still Chinese who visit families during CNY and for a population of 5.7m+ the cases since the outbreak have been 89 (first case here was just at end of January) and 49 of them have been discharged. Harvard also mentioned that Singapore's measure are "gold standard" for containment.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/ ... vard-study

Loads of people are quarantined just based on suspect and most companies have given WFH to employees unless its an absolute necessity. There is also a good control on people travelling out of country. The only worldwide case outwards from Singapore was the Grand Hyatt conference but that was held before China/WHO even mentioned about this virus to the world.

Add to that the number of cases in the past week have been coming down where more people are released everyday vs new detection. Also all the new cases have been people who were either working from home or quarantined.

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