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 Was Toy Story 4 a disappointment? 
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Waitress in LA

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Post Was Toy Story 4 a disappointment?
So Toy Story 4 was originally projected to open to a range of $105-130M per Box Office Pro, with them saying $113M and $390M domestic total. I was predicting about $120-130M OW and $420-440M DOM, and I thought that was a reasonable prediction. But then fast forward to May 30, presales dropped and they were the highest for an animated film. Predictions were then upped to $150-200M, with some saying it could potentially top Incredibles 2’s $182.7M. Then by week of release, $140-170M was the updated range, with Disney predicting $140M. I chose not to make an updated guess so that I wouldn’t overestimate it. Then after Thursday previews, the predictions were dropped to $136M, still great but lower than tracking. But then it opened to $118M ($120.9M actuals). It was way lower than tracking (even lower than Disney and they like to lowball so they look good), and some said it might not even pass TS3. But after its somewhat disappointing $120.9M opening, it had legs and made $434M domestic and $1.074B WW (above TS3). I think it still did great, but it obviously fell short of the inflated predictions that came about when presales hit.

But perhaps the reason it might be seen as a disappointment/underperformer was because the predictions were too unrealistic. I think $135M was probably about the most realistic ceiling. $120-130M was reasonable, but $160-200M? Hell no. TS4 just didn’t have as much anticipation as Incredibles 2 or Finding Dory, and that’s fine. But I think we learned a hard lesson that presales don’t always indicate everything about box office (I mean, Star Wars films are usually presales-heavy, heck Solo had higher presales than fucking Black Panther). But TS4 showed that films without huge $150M+ debuts can be successful and have leggy runs. But do you think it was an underperformer since it performed under the insanely high predictions?

I think I saw one article saying it underperformed for a Pixar sequel.


Last edited by ReptileDysfunction7 on Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:25 pm, edited 2 times in total.



Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:41 pm
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Post Re: Was Toy Story 4 a disappointment?
... no.


Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:06 pm
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Post Re: Was Toy Story 4 a disappointment?
Both Toy Story 4 and Frozen 2 are slight disappointments, but only because of Incredibles 2.

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Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:34 pm
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Post Re: Was Toy Story 4 a disappointment?
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
Both Toy Story 4 and Frozen 2 are slight disappointments, but only because of Incredibles 2.


I think Frozen 2 did great overseas but domestically it’s holiday legs, well they worked like they should, but the post-holiday legs were kinda meh.


Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:35 pm
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Post Re: Was Toy Story 4 a disappointment?
Incredibles 2 was super highly anticipated. Toy Story 4 was not. The fact it did more than 3 is great.


Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:37 pm
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Post Re: Was Toy Story 4 a disappointment?
It was in no way a disappointment. After they wrapped TS3 so convincingly its a surprise TS4 ended up increasing. Also let's wait for Incredibles to get maintain similar steam after 3 sequels and we can talk.


Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:05 pm
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Post Re: Was Toy Story 4 a disappointment?
Jack Sparrow wrote:
It was in no way a disappointment. After they wrapped TS3 so convincingly its a surprise TS4 ended up increasing. Also let's wait for Incredibles to get maintain similar steam after 3 sequels and we can talk.


Yeah I don’t think Incredibles 3 would increase from Incredibles 2. The second was super hyped (as evidenced by its huge domestic gross; not even Frozen 2 could reach it)

And I think the problem was the predictions were just so unrealistic. Comparing it to I2 and Dory wasn’t really fair, considering they had years of hype. What B.O. analysts need to learn is that presales don’t always indicate everything about box office. Ex: if movie A has better presales than movie B, that doesn’t always mean it’s gonna do better at the B.O. than movie B (See TS4 vs I2). I honestly think $130-135M was about the max it was gonna open to. $200M was just unreasonable to begin with. When I first saw the $200M projections, I shook my head with doubts.


Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:18 pm
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Post Re: Was Toy Story 4 a disappointment?
Its performance was very good. Frozen 2 is the one I think could've been a bit bigger, though there's nothing wrong with its performance.


Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:03 am
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Post Re: Was Toy Story 4 a disappointment?
I think Toy Story 4 outperformed expectations from Toy Story 3. Logically it probably shouldn't have increased.

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Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:47 am
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Waitress in LA

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Post Re: Was Toy Story 4 a disappointment?
Shack wrote:
Its performance was very good. Frozen 2 is the one I think could've been a bit bigger, though there's nothing wrong with its performance.


Yeah Frozen 2 could’ve done $500M+ if the post-holiday legs were better.


Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:40 am
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Waitress in LA

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Post Re: Was Toy Story 4 a disappointment?
Shack wrote:
Its performance was very good. Frozen 2 is the one I think could've been a bit bigger, though there's nothing wrong with its performance.


Yeah Frozen 2 could’ve done $500M+ if the post-holiday legs were better.


Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:41 am
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Post Re: Was Toy Story 4 a disappointment?
Yeah I'm in the camp that it actually did very well and realistically did not have to beat TS3 which it did. I think matching TS3 was the upper limit of reasonable expectations really. Higher expectations were only due to the insane breakout of TI2.

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Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:05 pm
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Waitress in LA

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Post Re: Was Toy Story 4 a disappointment?
MadGez wrote:
Yeah I'm in the camp that it actually did very well and realistically did not have to beat TS3 which it did. I think matching TS3 was the upper limit of reasonable expectations really. Higher expectations were only due to the insane breakout of TI2.


Yeah, all those $160-200M OW predictions were absurd asf. But TS4 showed strong legs throughout the summer, much like Aladdin. This goes to say that Incredibles 2 is the exception, not the rule.


Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:58 pm
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Post Re: Was Toy Story 4 a disappointment?
TI2 also had the advantage of superheros which was/is currently the biggest sell


Mon Mar 02, 2020 7:04 pm
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Post Re: Was Toy Story 4 a disappointment?
We won't see another Pixar film reach TS4's heights until Incredibles 3 (whenever that comes out).

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Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:02 am
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Post Re: Was Toy Story 4 a disappointment?
lilmac wrote:
We won't see another Pixar film reach TS4's heights until Incredibles 3 (whenever that comes out).


Yeah I agree. Incredibles 3, Finding Nemo 3, or Toy Story 5 (and maybeeeee Inside Out 2) have the best chance.


Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:56 pm
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Post Re: Was Toy Story 4 a disappointment?
At that time there are a lot of people who thought Toy Story 4 shouldn't be made by various reason like 1. The trilogy is already perfect 2. Pixar is milking the franchise 3. John Lasseter sexual harrassment. So Toy Story 4 was fighting against the anti-hype instead of riding the hype.
The result is actually surprisingly good, 97% Rotten Tomatoes, best worldwide gross of Toy Story franchise, and winning Oscars despite other organizations giving awards to indie animation.


Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:59 am
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Post Re: Was Toy Story 4 a disappointment?
pookpooi wrote:
At that time there are a lot of people who thought Toy Story 4 shouldn't be made by various reason like 1. The trilogy is already perfect 2. Pixar is milking the franchise 3. John Lasseter sexual harrassment. So Toy Story 4 was fighting against the anti-hype instead of riding the hype.
The result is actually surprisingly good, 97% Rotten Tomatoes, best worldwide gross of Toy Story franchise, and winning Oscars despite other organizations giving awards to indie animation.


Yeah I’ll admit I had doubts about TS4 due to it being delayed twice, Pixar throwing out 75% of the script, etc., but it turned out to be just as good as the other Toy Story’s. It really tugged my emotions in some scenes, like when Woody says goodbye to Bo in the beginning, and the ending scene. And the animation was beautiful and so realistic, especially the rain scene.


Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:35 am
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Post Re: Was Toy Story 4 a disappointment?
I enjoyed Toy Story 4. I was extremely skeptical at yet another sequel but it didn’t disappoint.

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Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:39 am
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