... after calling Dark Phoenix a lock last year, not gonna use the term anymore.

Very Likely
Birds of Prey
No Time to Die
Black Widow
Onward
Mulan
Fast and Furious 9
Wonder Woman 1984
A Quiet Place II
Soul
Top Gun: Maverick
Eternals
Trolls World Tour
Minions II
The Croods II
Ghostbusters: Afterlife
Tenet
Jungle Cruise
Venom 2
Godzilla vs. Kong
Raya and the Last Dragon
Dune

Maybe
Bad Boys For Life
Doolittle
Sonic The Hedgehog
Scoob
Spongebob
Tom and Jerry
Free Guy
Morbius
Death on the Nile
The Conjuring 3
Candyman

Low Chance
Call of the Wild
New Mutants
The King's Man

I agree on the maybe's...the low chances are really low chances I think.

And i'd group Dune, Death on the Nile, Conjuring 3 and Candyman in the maybe category too.

After watching the trailer, I'd say Scoob is very likely.

Yeah, agreed with all but I'll keep Dune in very likely just cause it's the only big December release as or now. Didn't realize Murder on the Orient Express finished at 102m

I think Coming 2 America, West Side Story and Many Saints of Newark are maybes.

As are Bios and Halloween Kills (very likely)

In the Heights may also have a decent chance.

Birds is by no means a lock

For 100 million it’s definitely a lock

What are you expecting Alita #s? Lol

In the Heights is good chance I’d say. Should attract musical fans and non white audiences in droves.

Agreed. As long as it's good.

$80-$100m for Birds


Malignant Man is a possibility. Written and directed by James Wan.

Coming to America 2 could do Crocodile Dundee in LA numbers. It could also do 150+ plus. Eddie Murphy is the epitome of "that moment" and marketing. We'll need a trailer for that.

I think Coming to America has a string cult following. It has a real shot at 100m+

Yeah, Coming 2 America should do very well.

Movie - Days to $100m

1. Bad Boys For Life (9)

Off to a good start. By end of February we may be at 3 if Sonic does well.

Could the coronavirus situation kill Mulan's box office? Especially in China, but also elsewhere. If this becomes an actual pandemic how many people will want to go to theatres period, especially for a film that's bound to have a higher than usual Chinese audience in attendance? Remember China has the largest diaspora worldwide, there are hardly any major cities anywhere without a substantial Chinese population.

Sonic is close to a lock at this point, it's tracking at 45m+ OW. I'd be surprised if it missed. Even if it is bad, I doubt it would do sub 100m. Dolittle will probably gross 75m+ and it's a turd, Sonic should have similar family appeal.

I also think that The Invisible Man could be a 100m candidate if it got great reviews. Call of the Wild looks like a flop, though I could see it do 80-90m off the Dog's Purpose audience, plus a Disney marketing boost. So 100m is unlikely for it, but not out of the question.

My kids have been super excited for Sonic (despite the character being from my childhood not theirs). The tracking is no surprise. The film also has good will thanks to Paramount listening to fans and changing the Sonic design. Good buzz that follows initial bad buzz is good news for the BO. $100m plus for Sonic.

Invisible Mam is a good shot for 100m too.

And yes not sure why the high expectations for Call of the Wild here on KJ. Something like 70m would be huge IMO.

Possibly in China yes. Well unless it’s just delayed which is likely.

In NA and elsewhere? Impact won’t be as great unless things get substantially worse from here. There have been official cases here in Oz and also in Canada. So time will tell.

I think regardless - Mulan is good for 150m but I have doubts it can get past 250m domestic.

Deaths/confirmed infected is increasing exponentially. They are saying it has a two-week incubation period and can be spread before symptoms show up. Worst case scenario is a Spanish Flu situation. That killed 3% of the world's population at the time. If that actually happens I think a couple studios may go bankrupt altogether, let alone individual movies flopping.

Movie - Days to $100m

1. Bad Boys For Life (9)
2. Sonic the Hedgehog (10)

Birds is out.

Call of the Wild is still a chance. Invisible Man is a small chance too.

Next up is Onward.

Next one should be Onward don't see any movie reaching this mark before that.

I'd almost say Coming to America was a lock a year ago. I think in a lot of ways it's Eddie Murphy's most evergreen movie, (It can be played on family channels with minimal editing), and there were a LOT shout-outs to it in the run-up to Black Panther.