Second Weekend Drop:

Nemo was down 33.7%, while Monsters Inc. dropped 27.2%.

Some factors:
-Nemo had summer weekdays that arguably could have left a bit less demand remaining for the second weekend. So, this might help The Incredibles' hold relative to Nemo.
-Nemo was released a year and a half later then Monsters Inc. and The Incredibles will be relased nearly a year and a half after Nemo. The frontloading trend might have contributed to Nemo having a larger drop then MI, and it might affect The Incredible's drop relative to these two films.
-Neither of the two have major competition in their second weeks. The Incredibles will have TPE. I believe that TPE will bomb, although it should still have a bit of an impact. However, I know many think it will do well.

My pick: I would go with 30.9% without TPE. With it I'm going to say 33.4%.

Make your predictions.



I should note that I know there is an Incredibles prediction thread, but that has only been about opening and total. There has been no discussion about the second week drop, and it is generally difficult to get such discussion going in such a thread.


Actual: 28.7%

Predictions:
BJ - 24%
JURiNG - 28%
Archangel Supreme - 30%
Goldie - 30%
choubachou - 30.5%
DP07 - 33.4%
Plot - 34.5%
BigMoviePimp - 34.6%
xiayun - 34.7%
Erendis - 35%
micasey300 - 35%
Algren - 35%
Dr. Lecter - 35.9%
matatonio - 36%
Zingaling - 36.17%
Nebs - 37%
torrino - 39%
hans - 40%
BOYFRESH - 45-50%

Third Weekend Drop:

DP07 - 34.3%
matatonio - 34.5%
Zingaling - 35%
micasey300 - 36.4%
newfoundglorysp - 37.4%
BJ - 38.6%
BigMoviePimp - 39.5%
Steve - 40%
Dr. Lecter - 40.5%
xiayun - 41.2%

Are there anymore predictions?

The Incredibles will drop 34%.

I say this because while I do think it will murder The Polar Express, it will nonetheless be slightly hurt by it.

Well, I see The Incredibles falling a bit more than Monsters Inc. due to the content of the movie (superheroes) and the fact that it is PG rated. Also, I expect a major hit from The Polar Express which I expect to be a hit.

Hmm...


34%

this is a ramdom number!

im going to say 38%
Polar Express will do a little effect, just a little!

Yes, I agree. I see TPE opening with 70% as much as is would have if it opened on a date free of The Incredibles.

I'm the one that thinks The Polar Express wont be 'murdered', infact think it will have quite good opening weekend.

So, drop of 39%-41%. Probably even bigger.

But The Incredibles would have also dropped less than 30% if it wasn't for TPE, in my opinion.

I seriously see no chance for The Incredibles to cross $300 million. The Polar Express will hit it first and that will already be somewhat of a major hit, but then, Spongebob will give it the rest. I see it dropping 32+% 2 weekends in a row and those 2 are the deciding weekends for this movie.

I'm thinking -35% because of the slight more violent stuff in there. Then down 45-50% in its third weekend.

You really think it will have that much of an impact? After all, against the Harry Potter films Monsters Inc. dropped 50% while Shrek 2 dropped 47%. TPE isn't Harry Potter by a longshot however well you think it might do.

You are expecting +50m from SpongeBob, if I remember correctly? :wink:

Yes, that's why. :wink:

No, he is expecting $75 million, hehe.

Im gonna go with a 38-45% drop, mainly because I see a huge opening weekend and The Polar Express will make a small dent aswell but, not that much, I think.

micasey300's Spongebob predictions are crazy. If it happens though...

I'm thinking -39%. It'll be slightly frontloaded for an animated film.

I don't think it will get half of that.

Laugh now! I will be there that Saturday to prove you all wrong! Mua hahaha!

And if doesn't go like that, I'll never live it down....

Me neither. I expect around $30 million. But either way, it will hit The Incredibles hard.

@micasey300

If you are right, I will personally congratulate you...



but that will never happen!

It isn't HP, but will be big imo.

Though now remembered that it opens on wednesday, so prolly will have smaller weekend, and will help The Incredibles' 2nd weekend.

The Incredibles 37% drop, with The Polar Express opening to $55m five-day weekend ($7m, $6m, $13m, $20m, $9m).

Incredibles 2nd weekend drop: 35%

I predict 30.5% of a drop. Polar Express will hurt it a bit, but I don't think TPE will be a massive hit.

choubachou - 30.5%
DP07 - 33.4%
Zingaling - 34%
Dr. Lecter - 34%
micasey300 - 35%
Algren - 35%
Nebs - 37%
matatonio - 38%
torrino - 39%
hans - 38-45%

Just four more days until it opens. Any new/more predictions?

I am going short with 30% only.

As i've said before, i hope Polar Express dethrones Incredibles.....but it might turn out as follows

Incredibles - $75m > -30% = $52.5m
Polar Expres - $42m/$55m

:wink:

34.5 %

If it opens with 60+m this weekend, 2nd week will see a 45-50% drop

45-50m open, 2nd weekend will see a 35-40% drop