All right man, there is no proof. Frozen 2 can make 140 5 day next weekend. You are absolutely right.

WOM is just one factor for staying power, and except for outliers, with great or horrible WOM, it’s usually secondary to other factors.

Keep in mind the original had a multiplier of 6 from an extremely inflated holiday OW. It can be far more frontloaded and still have great legs.

I also think the original’s staying power was a combination of WOM, the type of movie, and the winter theme (which might help it into the winter just like Christmas movies hold well). So it still has the other two variables.

118m 5 day

Original was a wednesday release after a limited engagement previous weekend. It became a phenomenon with "Let it Go". Also that december was horrible. Smaug was the biggest movie which disappointed both OW and domestic. So Frozen again became number 1. Also the music was so big that they could do a sing along to add BO in late Jan. I doubt this will play anything like that for several reasons. WOM about Movie/Music definitely is a factor. Anyway we will know soon.

The effect of WOM is a bell curve. It mostly affects a few outliers but doesn’t make a big difference for most movies. People tend to see legs and think it’s WOM, when it’s other factors. Movie fans think adult skewing films hold because of WOM, when it’s the demographic. Why did Yesterday hold so well with mediocre WOM?

Yeah the song helped, too bad they don’t have something like that again, but it’s rare for a movie to find a song as popular as that.

I really think a cold/snowy December would help it. If not I’ll blame climate change and Donald Trump.

I thought people already mentioned other factors that made the first one a phenomenon. You can also factor in the type of demograph the movie attracts in this case females. Female led movies are generally very PS heavy and have relatively less walk-in business though weekdays "could" be better but that's true for female led movies that attracts adult women. Most of female led movies are frontloaded unless they are WoM juggernaut like the first one, and we have established that this one isn't going to be WoM juggernaut as the first. 6 year gap is another thing against this movie as the kids would have grown into other things by now.

I really should always ignore you and I won’t reply, but the average female film isn’t extremely frontloaded. If there’s a very popular book it’s one thing, but action movies are usually more frontloaded than romance.

Keep bringing the ignore argument because its definitely not getting old. Anyone saying anything is incorrect for you but you know sometimes you can also be wrong. But I guess that idea never crossed your mind.

Also romance movies = female movies really? Is that the only movies that females see?

It’s not worth arguing with you. You’ll keep arguing about the smallest thing if you have any opportunity.

I’m going to resist the urge to pick apart every misunderstanding you spread. I don’t owe you an explanation for everything.

I fully expect another reply intended to provoke me.I would appreciate it if you stopped replying to me.

He’s not so much provoking, I just tend to worry, he seems like the type of person that falls down a lot, his lack rational thought is harmless.

Toy story 4 dropped 51% and that was about as textbook family crowd pleaser you could get. Plenty of family films are front loaded. They do tend to drop better because of their forgiving audience.

I try not to get personal. In Jack Sparrow’s case I can’t avoid saying he’s creating misunderstandings without making my point.

I don’t really care about being victim. I care about getting out of an unhealthy situation.

Rational thought is deduction, not being conservative and not taking risks by following conventional wisdom without question and appealing to people’s biases and assumptions while making educated guesses. I wouldn’t be surprised if you think Sam Harris, Bill Maher and the ‘intellectual dark web’ are rational.



TS4 was the third sequel; Frozen is the first sequel. Franchises tend to get more frontloaded with each installment. If they had released TS2 this year it would have held better.

Frozen II's estimate has risen to $130 million. It is now projected to drop 23% on Sunday with a $38.4 million gross.

Toy Story 4 was released in June, when people check stuff out opening weekend. Plenty of people wait for thanksgiving week to hit the cinema, even bad WOM movies like Crimes of Grindelwald didn’t collapse over thanksgiving.

Good point. TS4 had summer weekdays which took sales away from the second weekend. Doesn’t hurt thanksgiving releases since they have a Friday boost. They drop in December.

Kind of amazing they are expecting Frozen 2 to drop almost as much as Grindelwald.

Yeah 475m is on the optimistic side. It would need really good holds in the middle of December.

I would appreciate if you would stop creating rumors about me. You think they are your opinions then keep them to yourself. I haven't told anything about you personally only give my opinions about some topics but you always try to attack my intellect when you cannot counter which to me is as personal as you can get in this forum.

If I stop talking about you, request you to do the same!

Drama! I missed this WOKJ

How Dare DP insult Sparrow. isn't he supreme leader here now? Ban him.

On a serious note I am with DP on this. One has to just read Sparrow's comment. He is comparing Frozen to Twilight it seems

I should note I meant 15m 5th weekend as an optimistic scenario, but it still got close. It certainly will get the 460m I predicted and might get 475m.