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| Weekend Estimates http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=86377 |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Sun Nov 24, 2019 12:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Weekend Estimates |
Frozen 2 - 127m Solid but I don't think any ot us thought it wasn't gonna out open Finding Dory OW. Overseas numbers are looking impressive. Should beat Frozen 1 for all time WW animated film (if you're not counting the Lion King lol) |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Sun Nov 24, 2019 12:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
That's with Disney's usual under-estimation. It's close to the numbers many suggested before the weekend. |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Sun Nov 24, 2019 12:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Huh. Looks like official estimate is 127. Fucking Deadline |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Sun Nov 24, 2019 12:43 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Those previews make it seem like Knives Out will break out. Deserved. WW Frozen is already at 350.2m WW |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Sun Nov 24, 2019 1:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Charlie's Angels won't hit 20m. Doctor Sleep struggling to 30m. What the fuck lol |
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| Author: | Excel [ Sun Nov 24, 2019 2:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Nobody with a functioning brain should be surprised by anything. -They waited too long for FROZEN 2 -Mr Rogers movie clearly will be leggy -Ford v Ferrari admissions didn't drop much, it just lost the IMAX screens -Nobidy - literally nobody - wanted a Charlie's Angels movie Star Wars going to explode if it's good |
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| Author: | Barrabás [ Sun Nov 24, 2019 3:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
I think the release of Disney+ had an effect. Lots of parents who were just reminded in a big way they could just watch a random Pixar or Marvel movie with the kids at home instead of going spending half a day on a movie theatre outing during a busy time of the year. |
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| Author: | Mau [ Sun Nov 24, 2019 3:52 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Yeah this won't have the legs of the first. It's just not on par. Let's see how this behaves in the following week |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Sun Nov 24, 2019 4:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
The opening probably means it will hold better than was expected. Saturday is a good signal for the week ahead. |
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| Author: | Keyser Söze [ Sun Nov 24, 2019 4:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
DP07 wrote: The opening probably means it will hold better than was expected. Saturday is a good signal for the week ahead. So much for your Youtube views argument :-) |
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| Author: | Keyser Söze [ Sun Nov 24, 2019 5:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Magnus wrote: projecting out ahead, I probably put Frozen 10-day to be 2-2.2x its 3-day so that would mean a 255m-280m projection. I would probably put its total to be 1.5x-1.65x of its 10-day so then that leaves us with 380m-460m total. So there's still a ways to go and there's a ways to go. Though I do think this opening probably shuts the door on 500m+ barring some major turnaround and absurd Christmas legs. I think it will leg to 400m. But I am not see much more than that. That disney has underestimated its sunday as well. its looking more like low 20s drop and so around 130m OW will still happen. 130/410 kind of run as its not having universal acclaim and so fence sitters will wait for it to hit Disney +. |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Sun Nov 24, 2019 5:54 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
I think it could finish with a total around Catching Fire with a huge 5-day this upcoming weekend and playing through Christmas. |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Sun Nov 24, 2019 7:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Keyser Söze wrote: Magnus wrote: projecting out ahead, I probably put Frozen 10-day to be 2-2.2x its 3-day so that would mean a 255m-280m projection. I would probably put its total to be 1.5x-1.65x of its 10-day so then that leaves us with 380m-460m total. So there's still a ways to go and there's a ways to go. Though I do think this opening probably shuts the door on 500m+ barring some major turnaround and absurd Christmas legs. I think it will leg to 400m. But I am not see much more than that. That disney has underestimated its sunday as well. its looking more like low 20s drop and so around 130m OW will still happen. 130/410 kind of run as its not having universal acclaim and so fence sitters will wait for it to hit Disney +. 130/410 sounds right to me, even though I think it can go higher still. |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Sun Nov 24, 2019 8:12 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Keyser Söze wrote: DP07 wrote: The opening probably means it will hold better than was expected. Saturday is a good signal for the week ahead. So much for your Youtube views argument :-) YouTube views were leggy, run could be too. |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Sun Nov 24, 2019 8:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
It has a good chance at 500m. Will probably finish around 460. Expecting a good increase for the 5 day from OW. The Sat increase pretty much makes that clear. |
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| Author: | Thegun [ Sun Nov 24, 2019 8:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
DP07 wrote: It has a good chance at 500m. Will probably finish around 460. Expecting a good increase for the 5 day from OW. The Sat increase pretty much makes that clear. Lol it'll be lucky to make 100 million 5 day with this weekend. More likely it misses it. |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Sun Nov 24, 2019 8:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Thegun wrote: DP07 wrote: It has a good chance at 500m. Will probably finish around 460. Expecting a good increase for the 5 day from OW. The Sat increase pretty much makes that clear. Lol it'll be lucky to make 100 million 5 day with this weekend. More likely it misses it. Monster’s Inc, Incredibles, Wreck it Ralph all had big increases for the 5 day. Obviously this is after OW, but the Sat increase shows frontloading isn’t too bad. The big Saturday number means it has good numbers coming Friday and Saturday next week. Worst case scenario 110 5 day. |
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| Author: | Thegun [ Sun Nov 24, 2019 8:53 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Yes, a film from 2002 and a film in its 4th weekend of 16 million are great comparisons. The first Frozen's 5 day is the goal. It'll probably be 65/90. If it wasn't for the holiday it would drop over 55% |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Sun Nov 24, 2019 9:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Thegun wrote: Yes, a film from 2002 and a 58 million opener. The first Frozen's 5 day is the goal. It'll probably be 65/90. If it wasn't for the holiday it would drop over 55% Same type of movie proves the point. Obviously it won’t increase 3 day like Monster’s Inc, but that increase is relevant for this type of movie. Correlation doesn’t prove causation. No evidence big openings cause frontloading. Without the weekend it would drop just under 50%. |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Sun Nov 24, 2019 11:49 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Also it should again have a great late December. If it earns 15m December 20-22 it should get another 100m. The holds in December will be crucial. |
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| Author: | Keyser Söze [ Mon Nov 25, 2019 12:06 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Its reaction seems similar to how Ralph 2 was last year. This is not gonna leg it out. We will know soon. |
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| Author: | Thegun [ Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:00 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
He lost me at big openings don't correlate to front loading, that's box office 101. And 15 million at weekend 5? 127 60-65 26-29 14-17 (jumanji) 7-9 (ROS) |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:52 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Thegun wrote: He lost me at big openings don't correlate to front loading, that's box office 101. And 15 million at weekend 5? They correlate, they don’t cause. Conventional wisdom is often wrong. |
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| Author: | Keyser Söze [ Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:59 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
That needs great WOM. I doubt this one has that. Even cinemascore on day 1 was just A- unlike A+ for 1st movie. Day 1 generally has fanbase. Every metric I see it well down from 1st movie. So I dont see how its gonna have special run from huge OW. |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Mon Nov 25, 2019 2:00 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
COS had a smaller drop than the first HP because it was the third weekend instead of the second. That was despite the fact that it held worse overall. So I was probably underestimating the second weekend franchise frontloading. It will probably drop 5 day, but it shouldn’t be too bad. Animated films do well over thanksgiving, especially Disney movies. Big Hero 6, Bolt, Chicken Little, Brother Bear. They only really drop if there is a big opener to compete with. |
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