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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18878 Location: San Diego
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March 29-31 predictions
Dumbo - 4,000 The Beach Bum - Wide Unplanned - 1,000
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Sat Mar 23, 2019 2:05 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23779 Location: Classified
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Re: March 29-31 predictions
$40M. More of Mary Poppins than Lion King.
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Sat Mar 23, 2019 3:52 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20346 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: March 29-31 predictions
Dumbo should hit 50. I think it shouldn’t do too much worse in the opening than Dragon 3.
Us will probably drop like 40-45%.
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Sat Mar 23, 2019 4:42 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67043
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Re: March 29-31 predictions
Dumbo will make $56 million.
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Sat Mar 23, 2019 9:26 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18878 Location: San Diego
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Re: March 29-31 predictions
I'm gonna go with 62m for Dumbo. Hasn't really been a family friendly film in awhile and the trailers have been solid. Hoping we get 3 60m openers in a row [Us, Dumbo, Shazam!]
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Sun Mar 24, 2019 10:28 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Re: March 29-31 predictions
Been a long time since I've seen the original Dumbo. Is this a depressing story?
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Mon Mar 25, 2019 7:56 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20346 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: March 29-31 predictions
Rolling Thunder wrote: Been a long time since I've seen the original Dumbo. Is this a depressing story? It’s got sad and happy parts like most Disney movies. The mom actually lives in this one though.
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Mon Mar 25, 2019 10:15 am |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23779 Location: Classified
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Re: March 29-31 predictions
I know The Greatest Showman was a huge hit, but the circus itself doesn’t even exist anymore, mostly because of the mistreatment of elephants. It’s a depressing topic in general.
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Mon Mar 25, 2019 10:22 am |
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Dil
Forum General
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 9:48 pm Posts: 8942 Location: Houston, Texas
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Re: March 29-31 predictions
I'm predicting 55 for Dumbo. It's a shame because I feel like it had potential to do much better, but I've honestly seen very little marketing for it.
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Mon Mar 25, 2019 9:00 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23779 Location: Classified
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Re: March 29-31 predictions
It’s been on Hulu alot, with Danny Devito front and center. Though maybe that is just a targeted ad since I watch Disney movies and It’s Always Sunny.
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Mon Mar 25, 2019 9:53 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: March 29-31 predictions
1. DUMBO - 55.8 MILLION (New) 2. US - 36.269 MILLION (-49%) 3. CAPTAIN MARVEL - 19.877 MILLION (-42%) 4. FIVE FEET APART - 5.98 MILLION (-30%) 5. UNPLANNED - 5.85 MILLION (New) 6. WONDER PARK - 4.64 MILLION (-47%) 7. HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON: THE HIDDEN WORLD - 4.17 MILLION (-36%) 8. A MADEA FAMILY FUNERAL - 2.5 MILLION (-43%) 9. HOTEL MUMBAI - 2.1 MILLION 10. THE BEACH BUM - 1.8 MILLION (New) 11. GLORIA BELL - 1.336 MILLION (-19%) 12. NO MANCHES FRIDA 2 - $903,100 (-49%) 13. LEGO MOVIE 2: THE SECOND PART - $557,327 (-52%) 14. ALITA: BATTLE ANGEL - $529,850 (-51%) 15. APOLLO 11 - $490,822 (-38%)
Last edited by Magic Mike on Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Tue Mar 26, 2019 1:11 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: March 29-31 predictions
Would be interesting to see how US holds up. I see it declining in mid-50's for the weekend, slightly better than Halloween but still big due to the loss of IMAX screens and some PLF screens to Dumbo.
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Tue Mar 26, 2019 1:49 am |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18878 Location: San Diego
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Re: March 29-31 predictions
I'm gonna go with a 54% drop for Us, $32.7m (just under Get Out's first weekend)
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Tue Mar 26, 2019 1:52 am |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: March 29-31 predictions
Jack Sparrow wrote: Would be interesting to see how US holds up. I see it declining in mid-50's for the weekend, slightly better than Halloween but still big due to the loss of IMAX screens and some PLF screens to Dumbo. What keeps me from going with that high a drop is it's still the biggest thing for teens and adults and still very buzzy. Not sure how much losing IMAX screens will hurt it.
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Tue Mar 26, 2019 2:32 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: March 29-31 predictions
Yeah I guess that's true on the buzz and audience attraction but then again Dumbo will attract fair amount of adults as well. I just don't think the WoM for this will translate well outside OW and it will start working as a regular horror movie with slightly better legs (less multiplier than AQP for example) from here on.
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Tue Mar 26, 2019 2:36 am |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Re: March 29-31 predictions
Dumbo with a disappointing 51% start on RT. Burton does it again.
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Tue Mar 26, 2019 1:57 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Re: March 29-31 predictions
Dumbo is primed to open higher than what its reviews should otherwise dictate. Standard issue Disney blinders.
_________________ Making Predictions Great Again!
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Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:24 am |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: March 29-31 predictions
1,015 theaters for The Beach Bomb. They're smart to just go wide though. Wouldn't survive limited release with those reviews.
Hotel Mumbai expands to 924.
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Thu Mar 28, 2019 2:29 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Re: March 29-31 predictions
Despite the cast, The Beach Bum feels DOA.
_________________ Making Predictions Great Again!
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Thu Mar 28, 2019 8:17 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: March 29-31 predictions
Magic Mike wrote: 1,015 theaters for The Beach Bomb. They're smart to just go wide though. Wouldn't survive limited release with those reviews.
Hotel Mumbai expands to 924. True that
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Thu Mar 28, 2019 8:32 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18878 Location: San Diego
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Re: March 29-31 predictions
Dumbo seems to be doing pretty decent in my area. Expecting 3.5-4m for previews.
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Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:18 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: March 29-31 predictions
Similar to Mid90s, The Beach Bum might show a tiny bit of strength directly out of the gate, drawing a hyper-specific hipster-stoner audience, and then absolutely fall off a cliff.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:31 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38006
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Re: March 29-31 predictions
McConaughey is ice cold. I would like to see him embrace supporting actor roles instead of pulling a Nic Cage and insist on being the lead even if it means crap DTV fare
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Fri Mar 29, 2019 1:25 am |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: March 29-31 predictions
David wrote: Similar to Mid90s, The Beach Bum might show a tiny bit of strength directly out of the gate, drawing a hyper-specific hipster-stoner audience, and then absolutely fall off a cliff. I do believe that's who this will attract. But without great reviews like Mid90's it won't get many others. I wonder if this will have a big Friday to Saturday drop like Mid90's did?
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Fri Mar 29, 2019 2:13 am |
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i.hope
Defeats all expectations
Joined: Fri May 26, 2006 5:04 pm Posts: 6665
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Re: March 29-31 predictions
Magic Mike wrote: David wrote: Similar to Mid90s, The Beach Bum might show a tiny bit of strength directly out of the gate, drawing a hyper-specific hipster-stoner audience, and then absolutely fall off a cliff. I do believe that's who this will attract. But without great reviews like Mid90's it won't get many others. I wonder if this will have a big Friday to Saturday drop like Mid90's did? Yes, very likely. It might make just over $1m for the weekend, a similar gross to Assassination Nation.
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Fri Mar 29, 2019 3:09 am |
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