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February predictions
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=85315
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Author:  Shack [ Sun Jan 27, 2019 4:31 pm ]
Post subject:  February predictions

Not a bad month. Lots of sequels. Lego movie 2, What Men Want, Happy Death Day 2U, How to Train Your Dragon 3

Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Sun Jan 27, 2019 4:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February predictions

Eh. I'd be surprised if any of the non animated sequels hit 100m.

Author:  zwackerm [ Sun Jan 27, 2019 4:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February predictions

I don’t see anything with real breakout potential. Both animated sequels will decrease. Nothing else seems likely to do more than 75m.

Maybe What Men Want can get urban audiences excited but I don’t expect more than a mid level hit.

Alita will bomb.

Happy Death Day will do the same as the first.

Author:  Shack [ Sun Jan 27, 2019 5:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February predictions

I have Lego Movie 2 flopping with under 100 mil. It's like Star Wars where they diluted the brand with the spin offs, and the novelty is dead. HTTYD3 will also be meh

What Men Want will do well, although it could have really used Kevin Hart

The Prodigy could be the sleeper to break out

Author:  zwackerm [ Sun Jan 27, 2019 5:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February predictions

Shack wrote:
I have Lego Movie 2 flopping with under 100 mil.


It would have to open to sub 30m which I don’t see happening.

Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Sun Jan 27, 2019 8:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February predictions

Yeah... i could see people not giving a shit about Ninjago but Lego Movie 2 should still open with 35m+, especially since there really hasn't been a family film since Ralph.

Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sun Jan 27, 2019 8:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February predictions

Alita won't do big numbers but it will cross $100m+ domestically, though OS numbers will save it or break it.

Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Sun Jan 27, 2019 8:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February predictions

Will be surprised of Alita does 30m+ for the 4 day weekend. I wouldn't mind if it does well though.

Author:  Rev [ Sun Jan 27, 2019 10:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February predictions

Hope Alita surprises :D early words is that it’s good

Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Mon Jan 28, 2019 1:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February predictions

Cold Pursuit and Lego both have a mid 60s score on meta which is just fine. Dragon obviously already has a huge score (low 80s) since it has released overseas.

Hopefully Alita comes through as well.

Author:  Shack [ Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:42 am ]
Post subject:  Re: February predictions

February preview http://wokj.worldofkj.com/animated-sequ ... -february/

Author:  zwackerm [ Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:45 am ]
Post subject:  Re: February predictions

Uh, kJ insiders think Lego Movie grosses less than Dragon? Is that anybody besides Shack? If there’s any animated franchise that would be overpredicted by Kj it would be dragon.

Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: February predictions

Given that Ninjango dropped so heavily from Batman Movie (even though both of them releasing in the same year might have bigger impact on its grosses) and upcoming sequel has much lesser buzz of the past two, so there is a high probability Lego 2 does less than $150m.

Given its reviews thus far for Dragon 3 and KFP comparisons makes it a very likely contender to pass $150m.

Author:  zwackerm [ Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:51 am ]
Post subject:  Re: February predictions

Jack Sparrow wrote:
Given that Ninjango dropped so heavily from Batman Movie (even though both of them releasing in the same year might have bigger impact on its grosses) and upcoming sequel has much lesser buzz of the past two, so there is a high probability Lego 2 does less than $150m.

Given its reviews thus far for Dragon 3 and KFP comparisons makes it a very likely contender to pass $150m.


I don’t see much reason to expect LEGO to open sub 40m, most likely it opens to 50m. There hasn’t been an animated film in a while. I think comparing it to Ninjago is dumb. I think it can match Batman. It’s like saying because Solo grossed 213m that Episode 9 will only gross 350m. The spinoffs hurt the franchise overall but the main franchise won’t do that much worse than the spinoffs.

The new Dragon isn’t cracking 150m. It will do KFP 3 numbers at best.

Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February predictions

Both will open at about $45M and it will just depend on which one audiences like more. Critics are favoring Dragon so it has the advantage right now.

Author:  i.hope [ Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February predictions

I think Lego 2 looks like a more standalone entry than Dragon 3 and will play more broadly. One caveat though: the animation can be a turn-off.

For now, I think they will both do around $150m.

Author:  i.hope [ Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February predictions

Jack Sparrow wrote:
Alita won't do big numbers but it will cross $100m+ domestically, though OS numbers will save it or break it.


What made you so confident? I think it will do better than Ghost in the Shell (2017) but not double it. It might do slightly better than Tomb Raider (2018).

Author:  i.hope [ Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February predictions

Shack wrote:
I have Lego Movie 2 flopping with under 100 mil. It's like Star Wars where they diluted the brand with the spin offs, and the novelty is dead. HTTYD3 will also be meh


True, the brand is diluted and the novelty is gone. But sub-$100m would be too big of a drop.

Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February predictions

i.hope wrote:
Jack Sparrow wrote:
Alita won't do big numbers but it will cross $100m+ domestically, though OS numbers will save it or break it.


What made you so confident? I think it will do better than Ghost in the Shell (2017) but not double it. It might do slightly better than Tomb Raider (2018).


Just a gut feeling. I am still not sure :funny:

Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:49 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February predictions

zwackerm wrote:
Jack Sparrow wrote:
Given that Ninjango dropped so heavily from Batman Movie (even though both of them releasing in the same year might have bigger impact on its grosses) and upcoming sequel has much lesser buzz of the past two, so there is a high probability Lego 2 does less than $150m.

Given its reviews thus far for Dragon 3 and KFP comparisons makes it a very likely contender to pass $150m.


I don’t see much reason to expect LEGO to open sub 40m, most likely it opens to 50m. There hasn’t been an animated film in a while. I think comparing it to Ninjago is dumb. I think it can match Batman. It’s like saying because Solo grossed 213m that Episode 9 will only gross 350m. The spinoffs hurt the franchise overall but the main franchise won’t do that much worse than the spinoffs.

The new Dragon isn’t cracking 150m. It will do KFP 3 numbers at best.


I wish people stop needlessly throwing words like "dumb" and stupid for winning an argument. You asked opinion and I gave one. Just because it doesn't favour your opinion it's not right to call comparisons bad or dumb.

The comparison was still with Batman movie because the figure I gave was not below $59m it was below $150m which would be same drop from original to Lego 2 .

KFP3 did $143m so it wasn't that far and I still believe the ratings here plus the finale factor will help Dragon 3 crack $150m even if it limps there

Author:  zwackerm [ Thu Jan 31, 2019 8:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February predictions

Lol Alita is at 33% positive early reactions my butt.

Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Thu Jan 31, 2019 8:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February predictions

Damn!! My points at MGKC's game.....

Author:  Dil [ Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February predictions

I'm glad I went low on Alita. The trailers didn't make it look all that great to begin with and Rodriguez hasn't made a good film since Planet Terror IMO.

Author:  Shack [ Thu Jan 31, 2019 10:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February predictions

Alita is going to be one of the biggest bombs of all time

Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Thu Jan 31, 2019 10:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February predictions

I concede. Looks like it will flop bad....ugh

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