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Bird Box: estimated 26 million people watched opening week
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Author:  Shack [ Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Bird Box: estimated 26 million people watched opening week
Nielson releases Netflix numbers sometimes based on having audio recognition on phone (not that different than having a Nielson box). They have Bird Box at 26 million in the first 7 days. To put it in perspective Stranger Things Season 2 which is by far the biggest TV number Nielson has for them so far was 15.8. Bright did 11 million.

At an average ticket price of $9.16, 26 million people works out to be about 238 million opening week. Bright's 11 million would be about 98 million. I don't think either makes that much in theatres (IT made 158.7 in its opening week), but between that and the social media activity it's safe to say Bird Box is a game changing hit for Netflix, one of the biggest hits of Bullock's career and a breakthrough for Paulson and Bier. Another way to look at it is Bird Box's number is 2.36x Bright's. If Bright made a conservative 20 million if released in theatres, that would be 47 for Bird Box. If on the high end it made 40 million, that would be 94 million for Bird Box. Splitting it down the middle for 25-30 million would be 59-71 million for Bird Box. I think it's likely Bird Box is the equivalent of a 50 mil horror opening weekend or more. A Quiet Place did 50 million and Bird Box had to have at least been that big
Author:  neo_wolf [ Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Bird Box: estimated 26 million people watched opening we
Didnt netflix say 45 million diffrent accounts saw it first week?
Author:  Shack [ Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:30 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Bird Box: estimated 26 million people watched opening we
neo_wolf wrote:
Didnt netflix say 45 million diffrent accounts saw it first week?


Worldwide
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:45 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Bird Box: estimated 26 million people watched opening we
It's pretty strange (but not surprising considering how everyone at least steals someone's Netflix account...) how much of a phenomenon it became (definitely is dying though), I think it would've been a hit in theaters but not at the same level.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:03 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Bird Box: estimated 26 million people watched opening we
You also have to consider the repeat viewings and/or legs here. If a movie is available in the comfort of home on a streaming service more people are likely to watch it OW (if marketed well or the buzz is good enough). Plus the accessibility it MUCH higher/easier than those of theatres. The legs thereafter aren't going to be as huge as it would have been in theatres.
Author:  Rolling Thunder [ Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:10 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Bird Box: estimated 26 million people watched opening we
Yeah, this only did so well because it was heavily marketed, featured a likeable star, and was included in the Netflix subscription. I don't think it would have opened huge as a wide release in theaters. It was a unique film to check out at home but I doubt the curiosity would have translated to $10 tickets.
Author:  MadGez [ Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:22 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Bird Box: estimated 26 million people watched opening we
I could see it being a 15m/40m grosser at best. Most people I know who have seen it thought little of it so it's legs wouldn't have been great either.
Author:  lesterg [ Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Bird Box: estimated 26 million people watched opening we
So far Netflix's popcorn movies have made a big splash without being particularly good (Bright, Birdbox, Cloverfield Paradox, the Sandler films, etc). It's going to get real interesting for the industry once they inevitably solve the quality issue.
Author:  lilmac [ Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:17 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Bird Box: estimated 26 million people watched opening we
Rolling Thunder wrote:
Yeah, this only did so well because it was heavily marketed, featured a likeable star, and was included in the Netflix subscription. I don't think it would have opened huge as a wide release in theaters. It was a unique film to check out at home but I doubt the curiosity would have translated to $10 tickets.


That's not what he's saying. Bird Box wouldn't have had the same 'attendance' numbers but it does suggest Bird Box represents the equivalent of a major hit for the horror genre. I agree that it's probably on A Quiet Place level (ironic given the similarities between the two). Curious to see what the legs look like for a major streaming hit. Precipitous decline? Great legs? The issue is visibility.

This is just the beginning - we'll continue to see big budget hits from the streaming giants and I think it could be fun tracking Netflix/Prime 'boxoffice' numbers but we rarely get the numbers. :(
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