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 KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - OVERALL RESULTS 
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Feb 3)
It is being heavily pushed on YouTube, FYI. Almost every other ad I get is for it.


Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:33 am
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Wallflower
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Feb 3)
They did that with The Prodigy too and it didn't work out so well. Not that I think it will disappoint like that.


Sun Feb 10, 2019 3:11 am
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Feb 3)
Okay, with a 34M OW, 100 millions will definitely happen for LM2.

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Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:18 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Feb 3)
Omni wrote:
Okay, with a 34M OW, 100 millions will definitely happen for LM2.


Yeah its still going to end up being a BIG disappointment, but with that opening it shouldn't miss $100M.


Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:57 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Feb 3)
I still think it will miss $100m. It has How to Train Your Dragon 3, Wonder Park, and Captain Marvel to compete with in the coming weeks.


Sun Feb 10, 2019 9:11 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Feb 3)
Algren wrote:
I still think it will miss $100m. It has How to Train Your Dragon 3, Wonder Park, and Captain Marvel to compete with in the coming weeks.

Lol it doesn’t even need a 3x multiple. It has good reviews and holidays coming up. It’s missing 100m when it snows in July.


Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:45 am
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Feb 3)
The $34m opening is still an estimate. Kids movies that open with around $30m at this time don't have a high success rate of reach 100.


Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:31 am
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Weekly Ranking for Feb 10

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Full chart with all movies:
Spoiler: show
Image


Total Gross Projections
Cold Pursuit - $30 million
A Dog's Way Home - $41 million
The Upside - $104 million
Glass - $108 million
The Kid Who Would Be King - $17.5 million
Serenity - $8.6 million
Cold Pursuit - $30 million
The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part - $115 million
The Prodigy - $12 million
What Men Want - $55 million

Current Top 5
1. Glass - $98.3 million
2. The Upside - $85.7 million
3. A Dog's Way Home - $38.9 million
4. The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part - $34.1 million
5. What Men Want - $18.2 million

Current Answers to Box Office Questions
#1: #1: Which will gross more in total - the family combination of Dumbo, How to Train Your Dragon 3, and The LEGO Movie 2, or the superhero combination of Captain Marvel, Glass, and Shazam?
  • The superhero combination of Captain Marvel, Glass, and Shazam (currently $98.3 million)

#4: Which sequel will fall the most from its predecessor (%-wise) - Glass, Happy Death Day 2U, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, or The LEGO Movie 2?
  • The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part (currently -86.5%)

#5: Which sequel will gross the closest to its predecessor (%-wise) - Glass, Happy Death Day 2U, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, or The LEGO Movie 2?
  • Glass (currently -28.9%)

#6: What will be the highest grossing film to not hit #1 on any of its weekends?
  • A Dog's Way Home (currently $38.9 million)

#7: What movie will lose the largest number of theaters in its 3rd weekend?
  • Serenity (-2,278 theaters)

#10: What will be the highest grossing film not predicted in the total gross section (including the backup films)?
  • Dragon Ball Super: Broly (currently $30.6 million)


Sat Feb 16, 2019 1:25 am
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Feb 10
Off the dreaded 0, hope the rest of the game continues well for me


Sat Feb 16, 2019 5:26 am
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Feb 10
Wow, Jack is the only one who predicted over $80m for Alita lol


Mon Feb 18, 2019 2:18 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Feb 10
And I put it in my Top 5. It should cross Lego for sure now let's see if it can pass Glass.


Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:09 pm
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Weekly Ranking for Feb 17

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Full chart with all movies:
Spoiler: show
Image


Total Gross Projections
A Dog's Way Home - $42 million
The Upside - $104 million
Glass - $110 million
The Kid Who Would Be King - $17 million
Serenity - $8.6 million
Cold Pursuit - $30 million
The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part - $115 million
The Prodigy - $16.5 million
What Men Want - $55 million
Alita: Battle Angel - $100 million
Happy Death Day 2U - $24 million
Isn't It Romantic - $43 million

Current Top 5
1. Glass - $104.5 million
2. The Upside - $94.1 million
3. The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part - $62.5 million
4. A Dog's Way Home - $40.3 million
5. Alita: Battle Angel - $37.0 million

Current Answers to Box Office Questions
#1: #1: Which will gross more in total - the family combination of Dumbo, How to Train Your Dragon 3, and The LEGO Movie 2, or the superhero combination of Captain Marvel, Glass, and Shazam?
  • The superhero combination of Captain Marvel, Glass, and Shazam (currently $104.5 million)

#2: Which will gross more in total - the second-tier family combination of Missing Link and Wonder Park, the second-tier superhero combination of Alita: Battle Angel and Hellboy?
  • The second-tier superhero combination of Alita: Battle Angel and Hellboy (currently $37.0 million)

#4: Which sequel will fall the most from its predecessor (%-wise) - Glass, Happy Death Day 2U, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, or The LEGO Movie 2?
  • Happy Death Day 2U (currently -76.2%)

#5: Which sequel will gross the closest to its predecessor (%-wise) - Glass, Happy Death Day 2U, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, or The LEGO Movie 2?
  • Glass (currently -24.4%)

#6: What will be the highest grossing film to not hit #1 on any of its weekends?
  • A Dog's Way Home (currently $40.3 million)

#7: What movie will lose the largest number of theaters in its 3rd weekend?
  • Serenity (-2,278 theaters)

#10: What will be the highest grossing film not predicted in the total gross section (including the backup films)?
  • Dragon Ball Super: Broly (currently $30.6 million)


Tue Feb 19, 2019 6:46 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Feb 19
Not really sure where to put this, but I'm pretty sure the March schedule I looked at to predict this game was a lot fuller than it is now.

Currently:

1st: Greta (think this went from limited to wide), Madea
8th: Captain Marvel
15th: Five Feet Apart, Wonder Park
22nd: Us
29th: Dumbo, Unplanned (not sure this was there before)

There definitely wasn't just 6 films scheduled lol.

Chaos Walking was on the 1st but that wasn't ever making its date, then Captive State is now "limited" on the 15th, as is Hotel Mumbai on the 22nd. Greyhound, Where'd You Go Bernadette and the Informer all moved off the 22nd. Thought there were a couple more though.

The whole thing seems like pretty terrible scheduling, but I just can't recall whether it ever looked decent.

I suppose, if Madea/CM/Us/Dumbo are big hits, then what more do you really need if 4/5 weekends have a hit, but this isn't May, it's March. Currently besides Dragon 2 there'll be no holdovers making anything either. Seems pretty terrible.

Even some of the summer months (May, incidentally) seem more "put together" for co-existence or depth.

I guess the following years will continue to test whether the BO needs depth to survive or if tentpoles can carry it throughout an entire year.

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Fri Feb 22, 2019 6:42 am
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Feb 19
I guess everything just wanted to stay away from Captain Marvel. Pretty crazy though how packed the rest of the year seems though.


Fri Feb 22, 2019 4:37 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Feb 19
I could potentially get 6 points off last week's wide releases.

Making a mini-resurgence since I hit bottom, lol. :thumbsup:

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Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:03 am
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Weekly Ranking for Feb 24

Image

Full chart with all movies:
Spoiler: show
Image


Total Gross Projections
A Dog's Way Home - $41.6 million
The Upside - $104 million
Glass - $110 million
The Kid Who Would Be King - $16.8 million
Serenity - $8.6 million
Cold Pursuit - $31 million
The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part - $108 million
The Prodigy - $15.5 million
What Men Want - $55 million
Alita: Battle Angel - $85 million
Fighting with my Family - $21 million
Happy Death Day 2U - $27.5 million
Isn't It Romantic - $44 million
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World - $200 million

Current Top 5
1. Glass - $107.9 million
2. The Upside - $99.7 million
3. The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part - $83.3 million
4. Alita: Battle Angel - $61.0 million
5. A Dog's Way Home - $41.2 million

Current Answers to Box Office Questions
#1: Which will gross more in total - the family combination of Dumbo, How to Train Your Dragon 3, and The LEGO Movie 2, or the superhero combination of Captain Marvel, Glass, and Shazam?
  • The family combination of Dumbo, How to Train Your Dragon 3, and The LEGO Movie 2 (currently $140.8 million)

#2: Which will gross more in total - the second-tier family combination of Missing Link and Wonder Park, the second-tier superhero combination of Alita: Battle Angel and Hellboy?
  • The second-tier superhero combination of Alita: Battle Angel and Hellboy (currently $61.0 million)

#4: Which sequel will fall the most from its predecessor (%-wise) - Glass, Happy Death Day 2U, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, or The LEGO Movie 2?
  • Happy Death Day 2U (currently -67.5%)

#5: Which sequel will gross the closest to its predecessor (%-wise) - Glass, Happy Death Day 2U, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, or The LEGO Movie 2?
  • Glass (currently -22.0%)

#6: What will be the highest grossing film to not hit #1 on any of its weekends?
  • What Men Want (currently $45.1 million)

#7: What movie will lose the largest number of theaters in its 3rd weekend?
  • Serenity (-2,278 theaters)

#8: How many films will gross over $100 million?
  • One (Glass)

#10: What will be the highest grossing film not predicted in the total gross section (including the backup films)?
  • Dragon Ball Super: Broly (currently $30.7 million)


Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:42 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Feb 24
Darn, down again. Didn't expect Fighting with my Family to not do better, but I guess it was always just a niche then. Happy Death Day and Dragon surprised everyone.


Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:10 am
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Wallflower
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Feb 24
Wow I'm #1 for like 2 seconds. :sweat:


Fri Mar 01, 2019 9:54 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Feb 24
Yes! In the top ten.


Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:01 pm
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Weekly Ranking for March 17

Big apologies to the delay on this - my free time the past month has basically dropped to 0. :(

Image

Full chart with all movies:
Spoiler: show
Image


Total Gross Projections
A Dog's Way Home - $42.1million
The Upside - $109 million
Glass - $111.1 million
The Kid Who Would Be King - $16.8 million
Serenity - $8.547 million
Cold Pursuit - $31.9 million
The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part - $108 million
The Prodigy - $14.9 million
What Men Want - $56 million
Alita: Battle Angel - $86 million
Fighting with my Family - $23.5 million
Happy Death Day 2U - $28.1 million
Isn't It Romantic - $49.3 million
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World - $163 million
Captain Marvel - $440 million
Wonder Park - $44 million
Captive State - $7 million

Current Top 5
1. Captain Marvel - $264.9 million
2. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World - $135.6 million
3. Glass - $110.5 million
4. The Upside - $105.9 million
5. The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part - $101.3 million

Current Answers to Box Office Questions
#1: Which will gross more in total - the family combination of Dumbo, How to Train Your Dragon 3, and The LEGO Movie 2, or the superhero combination of Captain Marvel, Glass, and Shazam?
  • The superhero combination of Captain Marvel, Glass, and Shazam (currently $375.3 million)

#2: Which will gross more in total - the second-tier family combination of Missing Link and Wonder Park, the second-tier superhero combination of Alita: Battle Angel and Hellboy?
  • The second-tier superhero combination of Alita: Battle Angel and Hellboy (currently $81.8 million)

#4: Which sequel will fall the most from its predecessor (%-wise) - Glass, Happy Death Day 2U, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, or The LEGO Movie 2?
  • The LEGO Movie 2 (currently -60.7%)

#5: Which sequel will gross the closest to its predecessor (%-wise) - Glass, Happy Death Day 2U, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, or The LEGO Movie 2?
  • Glass (currently -20.1%)

#6: What will be the highest grossing film to not hit #1 on any of its weekends?
  • What Men Want (currently $45.1 million)

#7: What movie will lose the largest number of theaters in its 3rd weekend?
  • Serenity (-2,278 theaters)

#8: How many films will gross over $100 million?
  • Five (Glass, The Upside, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Captain Marvel, The LEGO Movie 2)

#9: How many films will gross over $200 million?
  • One (Captain Marvel)

#10: What will be the highest grossing film not predicted in the total gross section (including the backup films)?
  • Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral (currently $58.8 million)


Sat Mar 23, 2019 9:20 am
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Mar 17
Captive State almost steals question #7

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Thu Mar 28, 2019 8:43 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Mar 17
Chippy wrote:
Captive State almost steals question #7


:sweat:


Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:59 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Mar 17
i.hope wrote:
Chippy wrote:
Captive State almost steals question #7


:sweat:


It was my guess. Serenity sucks!

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Mon Apr 01, 2019 1:28 am
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Mar 17
Nobody is going to get the top 5. How long has this streak gone? Kind of amazing.


Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:05 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Mar 17
Yeah, Dumbo may be what, #5?

It'll likely be Captain Marvel, Us, Shazam, HTTYD and Dumbo? Unless Shazam disappoints.


Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:27 pm
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