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 KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - OVERALL RESULTS 
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Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 8:30 am
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Post Re: KJ's Winter/Spring Box Office Contest 2019
Was too lazy to edit my Glass prediction after the reviews dropped before the game closed.

I don't think it'll make anywhere near my prediction ($173m) with dodgy reviews.

Although I still don't think Us will make close to Get Out due to the weaker hook/story, it does have potential to match it. Reversing those 2 predictions might have been a good bet for me. ($148m for Us)

Still think HTTYD3, even if not great, will beat Lego Movie. I think the latter's humour is dated already after all the Pratt vehicles and other entries in the Lego franchise.

Whilst SM:ITSV showed Lord & Miller are brilliant, it just doesn't translate with the LM2 trailer.

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Ghost Rider + Clash of the Titans = 2x Wrath of the Titans + Ghost Rider 2
Lorax over Despicable Me
Men in Black 3 Under 100m
Madagascar 3 Under 100m
Rise of the Guardians over 250m


Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:40 am
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Dont Mess with the Gez
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Post Re: KJ's Winter/Spring Box Office Contest 2019
Yeah I think I was also too lazy to downgrade Glass. I'm hoping for a Venom like run.

Also may have went too low for Dragon. Its going gangbusters here in Oz but January is also the peak moviegoing season so I could still be right to downplay its NA domestic performance.

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Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:01 pm
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Hold the door!

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Post Re: KJ's Winter/Spring Box Office Contest 2019
I think dragon decreases the same amount as panda 2 to 3. I don’t see any reason for a better retention. The trailers have been unspectacular. All they seem to have added is a girl dragon.


Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:07 pm
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Movie Predictions

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Top 5 Predictions

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Box Office Questions

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Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:29 am
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The Kramer
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Post Re: KJ's Winter/Spring Box Office Contest 2019
zwackerm wrote:
I think dragon decreases the same amount as panda 2 to 3. I don’t see any reason for a better retention. The trailers have been unspectacular. All they seem to have added is a girl dragon.
Have you seen the new one before Bumblebee? That and the spots they had on during the NFL playoffs have me really hyped for it.

Great job on the charts!


Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:39 am
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Wallflower
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Post Re: KJ's Winter/Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Overview Pa
May as well give Sparrow and I points for Missing Link now :P.


Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:48 am
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Keeping it Light
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Post Re: KJ's Winter/Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Overview Pa
Charts are great!

I should have changed my answer for Q5 to Glass after all too.


Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:23 am
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Post Re: KJ's Winter/Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Overview Pa
Great job on those charts MGKC.


Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:18 pm
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Wallflower
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Post Re: KJ's Winter/Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Overview Pa
What are the predictions for the backups?


Tue Jan 15, 2019 1:10 am
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Wallflower
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Post Re: KJ's Winter/Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Overview Pa
Bernadette is out. Pushed back to August.


Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:43 am
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The Kramer
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Post Re: KJ's Winter/Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Overview Pa
I thought Greyhound would be the first one to move.

That should be a tiebreaker question: which movies will not make their release dates? :funny:


Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:49 am
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Weekly Ranking for Jan 20

Image

Full chart with all movies:
Spoiler: show
Image


Total Gross Projections
A Dog's Way Home - $35 million
Glass - $105 million

Current Top 5
1. The Upside - $44.0 million
2. Glass - $40.6 million
3. A Dog's Way Home - $21.3 million

Current Answers to Box Office Questions
#1: #1: Which will gross more in total - the family combination of Dumbo, How to Train Your Dragon 3, and The LEGO Movie 2, or the superhero combination of Captain Marvel, Glass, and Shazam?
  • The superhero combination of Captain Marvel, Glass, and Shazam (currently $40.6 million)

#4: Which sequel will fall the most from its predecessor (%-wise) - Glass, Happy Death Day 2U, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, or The LEGO Movie 2?
  • Glass (currently -70.7%)

#5: Which sequel will gross the closest to its predecessor (%-wise) - Glass, Happy Death Day 2U, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, or The LEGO Movie 2?
  • Glass (currently -70.7%)

#6: What will be the highest grossing film to not hit #1 on any of its weekends?
  • A Dog's Way Home (currently $21.3 million)

#10: What will be the highest grossing film not predicted in the total gross section (including the backup films)?
  • Dragon Ball Super: Broly (currently $21.1 million)


Mon Jan 21, 2019 12:57 pm
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The Kramer
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Jan 21
Well 14 of the top 5s are already busted. :funny:


Mon Jan 21, 2019 5:00 pm
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Wallflower
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Jan 21
Are we moving The Prodigy or Upside into the game?


Mon Jan 21, 2019 5:42 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Jan 21
Magic Mike wrote:
Are we moving The Prodigy or Upside into the game?

Oh good call - The Prodigy will move in first (since it goes alphabetically). I'll also put up their prediction charts when I have a chance.


Mon Jan 21, 2019 5:57 pm
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Jan 21
Greyhound moved to next year.


Fri Jan 25, 2019 10:46 pm
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Wallflower
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Jan 21
Nice now both backups can be in the game.


Sat Jan 26, 2019 1:37 am
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Defeats all expectations
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Jan 21
Keep an eye on both openers this weekend as they may be contenders for largest theater drop.


Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:09 pm
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Wallflower
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Jan 21
I'm glad I picked Kid Who Would Be King. It opened super wide.


Sun Jan 27, 2019 1:22 am
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KJ's Leading Idiot

Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Jan 21
Replicas just lost 1977 theaters and that would be hard to replicate :P


Sun Jan 27, 2019 11:41 am
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Wallflower
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Jan 21
Jack Sparrow wrote:
Replicas just lost 1977 theaters and that would be hard to replicate :P


The third weekend for this weekend's openers is packed though.


Sun Jan 27, 2019 4:10 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Jan 21
That's true but to take things in perspective Replicas opened in almost same amount of theaters as Serenity having a PTA just above 1k. The second weekend for Replicas was disastrous with PTA of $200. I don't think both this weekend's openers will do so poorly. They will lose A LOT like (1400+) theaters just not 2000+ theaters.


Sun Jan 27, 2019 8:40 pm
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Wallflower
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Jan 21
Not Serenity but I think Kid will with as many as it's in. At least around the same amount.


Sun Jan 27, 2019 10:40 pm
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Weekly Ranking for Jan 27

Image

Full chart with all movies:
Spoiler: show
Image


Total Gross Projections
A Dog's Way Home - $39 million
The Upside - $100 million
Glass - $105 million
The Kid Who Would Be King - $18 million
Serenity - $10 million

Current Top 5
1. Glass - $73.6 million
2. The Upside - $63.1 million
3. A Dog's Way Home - $30.8 million
4. The Kid Who Would Be King - $7.3 million
5. Serenity - $4.8 million

Current Answers to Box Office Questions
#1: #1: Which will gross more in total - the family combination of Dumbo, How to Train Your Dragon 3, and The LEGO Movie 2, or the superhero combination of Captain Marvel, Glass, and Shazam?
  • The superhero combination of Captain Marvel, Glass, and Shazam (currently $73.6 million)

#4: Which sequel will fall the most from its predecessor (%-wise) - Glass, Happy Death Day 2U, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, or The LEGO Movie 2?
  • Glass (currently -46.8%)

#5: Which sequel will gross the closest to its predecessor (%-wise) - Glass, Happy Death Day 2U, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, or The LEGO Movie 2?
  • Glass (currently -46.8%)

#6: What will be the highest grossing film to not hit #1 on any of its weekends?
  • A Dog's Way Home (currently $30.8 million)

#7: What movie will lose the largest number of theaters in its 3rd weekend?
  • Replicas (-1,975 theaters)

#10: What will be the highest grossing film not predicted in the total gross section (including the backup films)?
  • Dragon Ball Super: Broly (currently $29.0 million)


Sun Jan 27, 2019 10:58 pm
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Keeping it Light
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Post Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Jan 27
Shit, last


Mon Jan 28, 2019 9:11 am
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