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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18899 Location: San Diego
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Weekend estimates
Aquaman - 67.4m, 72.1m total with early previews Second Act - 6.5m
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Sun Dec 23, 2018 11:49 am |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18899 Location: San Diego
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Re: Weekend estimates
Solid start for Aquaman. A multiplier like the first Sherlock Holmes [3.3x] would give it a $226m finish, a little lower than Justice League. I suspect it'll do better that that but that's probably the low end. And just for shits, a Jumanji multiplier would give this a 750m+ finish. I'm expecting a $265m-ish total.
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Sun Dec 23, 2018 11:59 am |
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mark66
Extraordinary
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:41 pm Posts: 13041 Location: Augsburg (2,038 years young)
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Re: Weekend estimates
1 N Aquaman WB $67,400,000 - 4,125 - $16,339 $72,100,000 - 1 2 N Mary Poppins Returns BV $22,235,000 - 4,090 - $5,436 $31,049,671 - 1 3 N Bumblebee Par. $21,000,000 - 3,550 - $5,915 $21,000,000 $135 14 1 Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse Sony $16,700,000 -52.8% 3,813 - $4,380 $64,800,063 $90 2 5 2 The Mule WB $9,950,000 -43.2% 2,656 +68 $3,746 $35,653,465 $50 2 6 3 Dr. Seuss' The Grinch (2018) Uni. $8,180,000 -30.4% 2,780 -900 $2,942 $253,218,975 $75 7 7 N Second Act STX $6,501,000 - 2,607 - $2,494 $6,501,000 $16 18 4 Ralph Breaks the Internet BV $4,599,000 -50.4% 2,495 -1,080 $1,843 $162,093,930 $175 5 9 N Welcome to Marwen Uni. $2,358,000 - 1,911 - $1,234 $2,358,000 $39 1 10 17 Mary Queen of Scots Focus $2,240,000 +220.1% 795 +729 $2,818 $3,544,755 - 3 11 12 The Favourite FoxS $2,060,000 -20.9% 790 +349 $2,608 $10,087,140 - 512 7 Bohemian Rhapsody Fox $1,855,000 -57.0% 1,168 -1,045 $1,588 $184,686,798 $52 8 13 5 Mortal Engines Uni. $1,727,000 -77.2% 3,103 - $557 $11,990,960 $100 2 14 6 Creed II MGM $1,517,995 -71.8% 1,127 -1,980 $1,347 $108,704,612 $50 5 15 10 Green Book Uni. $1,406,000 -49.3% 732 -483 $1,921 $27,530,971 $23 6[quote][/quote] https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/c ... =51&p=.htm
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Sun Dec 23, 2018 12:18 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38122
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Re: Weekend estimates
It looks like Second Act is a movie about Jennifer Lopez finding out she has a daughter Vanessa Hudgens and building a relationship with her, not a romcom. Considering low OW, probably wasn't worth it to mismarket
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Sun Dec 23, 2018 12:21 pm |
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DP07
Homo Dperious
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 14531 Location: Everywhere
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Re: Weekend estimates
Aquaman will have a better bump next week because of the release date, but otherwise it will be more frontloaded than Sherlock Holmes. Also holidays on weekdays will affect the multiplier. It should get 3.7 or higher. TFA shouldn’t be difficult to beat, it was after all still very frontloaded.
That’s not a bad IM for Aquaman. December will negatively affect Sat and Sun more than previews and opening day (like with Pitch Perfect last year).
Bumblebee can certainly make 100m. Ouch Marwen. Impressive that Mary Queen of Scots has pulled ahead of The Favorite.
Last edited by DP07 on Sun Dec 23, 2018 12:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Sun Dec 23, 2018 12:33 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18899 Location: San Diego
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Re: Weekend estimates
Weird BoM still haven't changed their Mule Friday #. The 2.7 on th-numbers makes more sense than it plummeting kn Saturday.
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Sun Dec 23, 2018 12:33 pm |
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DP07
Homo Dperious
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 14531 Location: Everywhere
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Re: Weekend estimates
That Mule Friday jump looked so weird compared to the other Friday increases.
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Sun Dec 23, 2018 12:38 pm |
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Vanilla
The Incredible Hulk
Joined: Fri Aug 21, 2009 4:19 pm Posts: 509
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Re: Weekend estimates
When did Rampage make it to 101?
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Sun Dec 23, 2018 12:41 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18899 Location: San Diego
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Re: Weekend estimates
Poppins 3-day lower than Christopher Robin lol
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Sun Dec 23, 2018 12:46 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 21898 Location: Places
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Re: Weekend estimates
No clue why anyone thought Mary Poppins would do well, good but not great beginning for Aquaman though we will see where legs take it- seems to be THE action movie to see over xmas which will help it.
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Sun Dec 23, 2018 1:13 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38122
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Re: Weekend estimates
The DCEU's only problem was Zack Snyder. Hiring him has to be one of the worst financial decisions in the history of film. Without him you're looking at Batman vs Superman, Batman vs Superman 2, Justice League, Justice League 2, Justice League 3 probably ranging from 400 to 600 mil domestic and 1 to 1.5 billion worldwide.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Sun Dec 23, 2018 1:21 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18899 Location: San Diego
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Re: Weekend estimates
I wonder how bad Alita would've done had it stayed here. Probably Second Act #s.
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Sun Dec 23, 2018 1:38 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23843 Location: Classified
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Re: Weekend estimates
Shack wrote: The DCEU's only problem was Zack Snyder. I disagree. If they had let Snyder make Snyder movies it would have been fine. But they wanted Snyder to make Nolan movies. He did it well enough once, but doing it 3 times, especially with the unexpected personal tragedy, was way too much to ask
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Sun Dec 23, 2018 1:48 pm |
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mark66
Extraordinary
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:41 pm Posts: 13041 Location: Augsburg (2,038 years young)
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Re: Weekend estimates
Vanilla wrote: When did Rampage make it to 101? WB updated its 2018 cumes... Some studios update the box office of their movies at the end of the year (Universal does it usually too)...
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Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:00 pm |
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Dil
Forum General
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 9:48 pm Posts: 8942 Location: Houston, Texas
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Re: Weekend estimates
Wow at some of the drops this weekend. There are some nasty multiples all around, and it not only being the openers tells me people just weren't really interested in going to the movies this weekend. Who knows maybe there will be some epic rebounds next week, but as of right now I'm just not feeling it. Other than Aquaman its honestly not looking all that promising for anything, but this is what happens when studios release too many damn movies all aimed at similar audiences in a single weekend. I hope they learn to never do this shit again, but knowing Hollywood they probably will.
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Sun Dec 23, 2018 3:08 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18899 Location: San Diego
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Re: Weekend estimates
I'm actually considering seeing Marwen today lol interested if it actually is as bad as I think it'll be.
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Sun Dec 23, 2018 3:11 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6147 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: Weekend estimates
Dil wrote: Wow at some of the drops this weekend. There are some nasty multiples all around, and it not only being the openers tells me people just weren't really interested in going to the movies this weekend. Who knows maybe there will be some epic rebounds next week, but as of right now I'm just not feeling it. Other than Aquaman its honestly not looking all that promising for anything, but this is what happens when studios release too many damn movies all aimed at similar audiences in a single weekend. I hope they learn to never do this shit again, but knowing Hollywood they probably will. It's also the weekend before Christmas, everyone is running around busy either buying presents or food, travelling, etc. Last time the dates aligned in 2012 all the new films opened on the 25th.
_________________ .
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Sun Dec 23, 2018 3:27 pm |
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DP07
Homo Dperious
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 14531 Location: Everywhere
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Re: Weekend estimates
Turns out engines are definitely mortal after all.
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Sun Dec 23, 2018 3:58 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22697 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: Weekend estimates
Mary, Queen of Scots' expansion didn't go well at all. It either should have opened wider in early December or expanded in January.
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Sun Dec 23, 2018 4:38 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67060
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Re: Weekend estimates
Vanilla wrote: When did Rampage make it to 101? Back in August.
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Sun Dec 23, 2018 6:08 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23843 Location: Classified
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Re: Weekend estimates
DP07 wrote: Turns out engines are definitely mortal after all. Yep lol. Poor PJ, he’ll never want to return to fantasy.
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Sun Dec 23, 2018 10:23 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67060
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Re: Weekend estimates
DP07 wrote: Turns out engines are definitely mortal after all. Love you, DP07, but that gag blew.
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Sun Dec 23, 2018 10:24 pm |
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DP07
Homo Dperious
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 14531 Location: Everywhere
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Re: Weekend estimates
MadGez wrote: Mary, Queen of Scots' expansion didn't go well at all. It either should have opened wider in early December or expanded in January. It’s PTA is a lot better than the recent expansions to drop under $1000 PTA (Front Runner, A Private War, Vox Lux). It seems to be a trend of falling PTAs. Anyway, this weekend was deflated, and the next week can set it on a better trajectory.
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Mon Dec 24, 2018 1:48 am |
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DP07
Homo Dperious
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 14531 Location: Everywhere
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Re: Weekend estimates
Algren wrote: DP07 wrote: Turns out engines are definitely mortal after all. Love you, DP07, but that gag blew. Well then, I suppose I was dead serious.
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Mon Dec 24, 2018 1:52 am |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18899 Location: San Diego
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Re: Weekend estimates
Aquaman dipped 12% on Sunday. Great drop, bodes well for this week.
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Mon Dec 24, 2018 12:54 pm |
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