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Disney is in a bit of trouble...
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Author:  zwackerm [ Sat Dec 22, 2018 2:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Disney is in a bit of trouble...

2019 is going to be huge, and I’m sure the next few years will be too. But their business model is a short term, but not long term investment.

Marvel will peak next year with Avengers 4. I’m sure Phase 4 will make tons of $$$ too, but it’s all gonna be downhill.

Star Wars is probably going to see significantly lower returns post Episode 9. Disney probably is going to need to put it to sleep for a bit if they want to keep it an event.

Disney is blowing it’s live action remake load with Dumbo, Lion King, and Aladdin all in one year. There will be a few more that make money I’m sure but it will be all downhill from the Lion King.

Pixar and Disney have been sequelizing their animated films rather than creating new films lately. And Coco was one of their worst attended originals. Seems if they run out of movies to sequelize and their original films continue to just break 200m, they could be in trouble too.

Disney is putting all their effort into what is currently popular. They are not putting care into their original products which could carry the studio once Star Wars, Marvel and their live action remakes are put to rest. They’re going to be fine for a while, but 2019 will be their peak and they’re going to need to start investing more heavily in the new rather than the old once the current franchises they’re milking fall out of fashion.

Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Sat Dec 22, 2018 2:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...

Yeah 2020 will definitely seem like a down year for them with no $600M+ grossers, but they should still be fine. Pixar and DAS will be still be pumping out 2-3 films a year. And while Pixar claims it is only focusing on originals right now, the demand for Incredibles 3 is impossible to ignore. Then by mid 2020s they can relaunch their late 2000s much-beloved efforts.

Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Sat Dec 22, 2018 2:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...

Yeah, they'll be fine. Bump this thread up when they have less than 3 hits in a year.

Author:  Shack [ Sat Dec 22, 2018 2:49 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...

Zootopia 2 will be in 2021 or 2022

Overall though it's Disney, they'll find a new franchise. I do think Indy 5 is a mistake, the next movie should have been a reboot as there's been enough time since Crystal Skull to push it under the rug. Fucking up Indy 5 would cost them a lot

Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Sat Dec 22, 2018 2:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...

The move they should make is Kingdom Hearts where they can have literally all their different franchises share the same movie. But they'd have to redo the whole story because the games have never made any sense.

Author:  Shack [ Sat Dec 22, 2018 2:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...

They'd also be testing god by trying to break the bad video game movie streak

Author:  Barrabás [ Sat Dec 22, 2018 8:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...

Their problem is that they *are* trying to establish new franchises but they keep bombing.

Ralph 2 is looking like it will end up a money loser with worse than expected legs domestically and lackluster international grosses.

A Wrinkle in Time and Nutcracker both bombed hard.

Solo was supposed to set up a franchise and flopped.

Frozen and Zootopia should be good for sequels though. And Marvel will continue producing blockbusters. They've also got several animated classics yet to remake like The Little Mermaid and the Hunchback of Notre Dame.

They'll be fine. But the level of dominance they've had in the past few years was always going to be unsustainable since audiences tire of the same type of film after a while.

Author:  Algren [ Sat Dec 22, 2018 8:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...

It is hard to create long-lasting new franchises when you keep maintaining the older franchises. People already have their fill of franchise product. There's only so much they can take. Why take on a new franchise when the old ones are still pumping out quality? Disney are their own competitor.

Author:  DP07 [ Tue Dec 25, 2018 5:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...

It’s not just Disney, all of Hollywood will have trouble replacing their franchises. They are not creating new franchises fast enough. Like I said here.

Author:  i.hope [ Tue Dec 25, 2018 7:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...

Disney does not need new franchises. It needs to build on its existing franchises, which it is sort of doing now.

Author:  Shack [ Wed Dec 26, 2018 1:41 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...

DP07 wrote:
It’s not just Disney, all of Hollywood will have trouble replacing their franchises. They are not creating new franchises fast enough. Like I said here.


Interesting concept. The problem seems to be they're running out of print source material. Harry Potter, LOTR, Twilight, Hunger Games, etc. all benefitted from popular books. Then there's comic books of course. Coming up with a completely original franchise screenplay is difficult. It's easier to let the novelist create the character.

I still think franchise films is the model right now. Originally actors were the brands, you went to a John Wayne or Fred Astaire movie, or later Arnold or Sly not just of liking the actor, but because they were tied to a genre of film. The modern equivalent would be The Rock, Sandler, Ferrell. Sandler's draw power wasn't just based on him, or else people would have gone to Punch-Drunk Love. It was really the Happy Madison brand of humour that made it so people knew what they were getting. The Rock generally makes The Rock style films.

Eventually however the age of actor draws died because they got empowered and started looking for Oscar nominations and avoiding typecasting. They all got paid so much that adding a few more million didn't make them take roles they're iffy on. They no longer made decisions based now what will be the biggest hit, hence became impossible to control or for Hollywood to take the thing they're best at and build a whole financial brand around them. DiCaprio box office run wasn't quite as big as it could have been, because he makes all different types of films. Django, Wolf of Wall Street, Revenant have nothing to do with each other. So there's no DiCaprio style of film that you can guarantee 100 mil as soon as it's announced. If he makes another J Edgar it's still flopping. Rachel McAdams and Emma Stone both could have been huge romance or romcom stars but don't want to just be known for that genre, so Hollywood can't find its next Meg Ryan or Julia Roberts. Since actors no longer had much to do with the genre of film they picked, it got replaced by popular characters instead of popular actors. Now Iron Man and Jack Sparrow were the real draws, not Arnold and Sly. It also helped to take characters who were already established in pop culture in most comic book heroes.

If that franchise characters period one day dims similar to actor draws, the question is a) Why? and b) What's next? I have to think the most likely scenario is they will just find a way to get new recognizable characters, or somehow get good at creating them again. Maybe eventually genre tastes will change away from VFX blockbusters, but the same principles of franchises will exist. Genres like romance, westerns, detectives, etc. have a lot of print material available if they somehow became in vogue instead of comic books. Another possibility would be the director one day becoming the most important thing financially. But the mainstream audience's appreciation of filmmaking would have to increase a great deal.

Author:  lilmac [ Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:24 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...

Tim Burton’s Dumbo (March 29, 2019)
Guy Ritchie’s Aladdin (May 24, 2019)
Jon Favreau’s The Lion King (July 19, 2019)
Niki Caro’s Mulan (March 27, 2020)

Pretty sure there was a boardroom debate over whether or not to spread the 2019 slate out. I suppose 2019 was destined to be an all-in year. Disney hit $3.003B last year. They could exceed $3.3B in 2019. :noway:


To your point yes, they are hemorrhaging through their franchises. What else is there besides Little Mermaid? There are not enough Zootopias, Wreck it Ralph’s and Big Hero 6’s to feed the 2021-2025 pipeline...yet. Not at the current rate.

Author:  Algren [ Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...

Why can't these live-action remakes spawn sequels?

Author:  pookpooi [ Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:33 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...

It'll be a downhill for sure (not just Disney but for a cinema industry as a whole), and that's why regulators around the world allow Disney to buy Fox. I don't know if streaming will replace cinema or not but any platform will need content.

Author:  lesterg [ Wed Jan 02, 2019 12:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...

Algren wrote:
Why can't these live-action remakes spawn sequels?


Disney's President of Production said they were were looking at prequels or spin-offs of Beauty and the Beast but nothing has been announced. Since it's already been a couple of years, I wouldn't be surprised to see something pop up on the Disney streaming service instead.

The Jungle Book 2 is in development, but again...been a long time since there were any updates.

Author:  Barrabás [ Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:25 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...

Algren wrote:
Why can't these live-action remakes spawn sequels?


They're remakes of self contained stories so a sequel can't rely on nostalgia and looks like a cash grab. Plus, they tried with Alice even when it was based on another book, and it bombed horribly. At any rate, why do sequels when there are still several animated classics left to remake? They haven't even announced The Little Mermaid, The Hunchback of Notre Dame, Bambi, Fantasia, or Pocahontas.

Author:  Algren [ Thu Jan 03, 2019 4:48 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...

I'd rather see a sequel to a remake (you know, it's at least a bit original) than seeing yet another remake of a classic.

Author:  Price [ Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...

Algren wrote:
I'd rather see a sequel to a remake (you know, it's at least a bit original) than seeing yet another remake of a classic.


Same here. Remakes I only like if they take another approach to the original material a la The Fly 1959 vs the 1986 version.

Author:  lilmac [ Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:35 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...

Disney will certainly start feeding the Disney+ beast with some of their tentpole properties, furthering diluting the theatrical pipeline. We see that with Lady and the Tramp remake going to the small screen despite being a legit big budget picture. One driver is Netflix uppping their game. Disney has no choice but to diversify and by doing so split its attention and dollars.

Author:  BK [ Thu Jan 10, 2019 1:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...

Are you finally seeing the light?

Not really because you'll still see Lion King and Aladdin which look awful.

Even the once promising Disney Animation has become a mess with WIR2 (sucked) and sequels starting to dominate.

Sequels aren't inherently bad of course, but the approach Disney has taken is deplorable. Also because of their general behaviour and business practices that everyone loves to excuse because they are Marvel and Star Wars fanboys.

Heck, I just saw Mary Poppins because of nostalgia (maybe it too looked like an exact copy, but I don't remember much of it unlike TLK/BATB/Aladdin) but that was a massive letdown and just seemed to miss the point completely. I'm really glad it didn't blow up like was predicted on here.

Given that their predecessors were so well received, I am not sure what they could have done with their live action adaptations (well, besides not touching them) but if they were less greedy and short termist they could have had an actual new take and turn that into a franchise.

Author:  Chippy [ Thu Jul 04, 2019 2:42 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...

The Little Mermaid has cast Halle Bailey to play Ariel. (she's a HELL of a singer)

I think if they can round out that cast, it could be pretty big.

Author:  Barrabás [ Thu Jul 04, 2019 2:44 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...

I think their casting decision has severely diminished the international box office potential for The Little Mermaid. Is it right and fair? Absolutely not. But I do think it will have an effect, look at what happened to A Wrinkle in Time. Literally the worst-performing major studio fantasy film ever in terms of international/domestic box office split. Sadly audiences around the world do not like to see black girls in films. Having lived in Latin America for a while, I sure know it's true there.

Author:  zwackerm [ Thu Jul 04, 2019 8:58 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...

They at least gotta dye her hair red.

Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Thu Jul 04, 2019 11:02 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...

Is she still gonna be a whiny spoiled rich girl who nearly gets her family killed for some strange dick though?

Author:  Excel [ Thu Jul 04, 2019 11:49 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...

Alladin 2 will be a big hit.

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