Register  |  Sign In
View unanswered posts | View active topics It is currently Mon Jan 21, 2019 11:10 pm



Reply to topic  [ 20 posts ] 
 Disney is in a bit of trouble... 
Author Message
Hold the door!
User avatar

Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm
Posts: 14348
Location: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Post Disney is in a bit of trouble...
2019 is going to be huge, and I’m sure the next few years will be too. But their business model is a short term, but not long term investment.

Marvel will peak next year with Avengers 4. I’m sure Phase 4 will make tons of $$$ too, but it’s all gonna be downhill.

Star Wars is probably going to see significantly lower returns post Episode 9. Disney probably is going to need to put it to sleep for a bit if they want to keep it an event.

Disney is blowing it’s live action remake load with Dumbo, Lion King, and Aladdin all in one year. There will be a few more that make money I’m sure but it will be all downhill from the Lion King.

Pixar and Disney have been sequelizing their animated films rather than creating new films lately. And Coco was one of their worst attended originals. Seems if they run out of movies to sequelize and their original films continue to just break 200m, they could be in trouble too.

Disney is putting all their effort into what is currently popular. They are not putting care into their original products which could carry the studio once Star Wars, Marvel and their live action remakes are put to rest. They’re going to be fine for a while, but 2019 will be their peak and they’re going to need to start investing more heavily in the new rather than the old once the current franchises they’re milking fall out of fashion.

_________________
Image


Sat Dec 22, 2018 2:32 pm
Profile
The Kramer
User avatar

Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am
Posts: 14702
Location: Classified
Post Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...
Yeah 2020 will definitely seem like a down year for them with no $600M+ grossers, but they should still be fine. Pixar and DAS will be still be pumping out 2-3 films a year. And while Pixar claims it is only focusing on originals right now, the demand for Incredibles 3 is impossible to ignore. Then by mid 2020s they can relaunch their late 2000s much-beloved efforts.


Sat Dec 22, 2018 2:41 pm
Profile
Extraordinary
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am
Posts: 14316
Location: San Diego
Post Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...
Yeah, they'll be fine. Bump this thread up when they have less than 3 hits in a year.


Sat Dec 22, 2018 2:47 pm
Profile
Is this heaven, or is this hell?
User avatar

Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 30243
Post Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...
Zootopia 2 will be in 2021 or 2022

Overall though it's Disney, they'll find a new franchise. I do think Indy 5 is a mistake, the next movie should have been a reboot as there's been enough time since Crystal Skull to push it under the rug. Fucking up Indy 5 would cost them a lot

_________________
Follow WOKJ's official box office account twitter.com/wokjboxoffice


Sat Dec 22, 2018 2:49 pm
Profile
The Kramer
User avatar

Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am
Posts: 14702
Location: Classified
Post Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...
The move they should make is Kingdom Hearts where they can have literally all their different franchises share the same movie. But they'd have to redo the whole story because the games have never made any sense.


Sat Dec 22, 2018 2:51 pm
Profile
Is this heaven, or is this hell?
User avatar

Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 30243
Post Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...
They'd also be testing god by trying to break the bad video game movie streak

_________________
Follow WOKJ's official box office account twitter.com/wokjboxoffice


Sat Dec 22, 2018 2:53 pm
Profile
llegó a la casa vía marítima
User avatar

Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm
Posts: 4749
Location: la gran casa de la esquina
Post Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...
Their problem is that they *are* trying to establish new franchises but they keep bombing.

Ralph 2 is looking like it will end up a money loser with worse than expected legs domestically and lackluster international grosses.

A Wrinkle in Time and Nutcracker both bombed hard.

Solo was supposed to set up a franchise and flopped.

Frozen and Zootopia should be good for sequels though. And Marvel will continue producing blockbusters. They've also got several animated classics yet to remake like The Little Mermaid and the Hunchback of Notre Dame.

They'll be fine. But the level of dominance they've had in the past few years was always going to be unsustainable since audiences tire of the same type of film after a while.

_________________
.


Sat Dec 22, 2018 8:21 pm
Profile
now we know
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 62538
Post Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...
It is hard to create long-lasting new franchises when you keep maintaining the older franchises. People already have their fill of franchise product. There's only so much they can take. Why take on a new franchise when the old ones are still pumping out quality? Disney are their own competitor.


Sat Dec 22, 2018 8:24 pm
Profile
Homo Dperious
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 13659
Location: Everywhere
Post Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...
It’s not just Disney, all of Hollywood will have trouble replacing their franchises. They are not creating new franchises fast enough. Like I said here.


Tue Dec 25, 2018 5:24 pm
Profile ICQ
Defeats all expectations
User avatar

Joined: Fri May 26, 2006 5:04 pm
Posts: 5626
Post Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...
Disney does not need new franchises. It needs to build on its existing franchises, which it is sort of doing now.


Tue Dec 25, 2018 7:19 pm
Profile
Is this heaven, or is this hell?
User avatar

Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 30243
Post Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...
DP07 wrote:
It’s not just Disney, all of Hollywood will have trouble replacing their franchises. They are not creating new franchises fast enough. Like I said here.


Interesting concept. The problem seems to be they're running out of print source material. Harry Potter, LOTR, Twilight, Hunger Games, etc. all benefitted from popular books. Then there's comic books of course. Coming up with a completely original franchise screenplay is difficult. It's easier to let the novelist create the character.

I still think franchise films is the model right now. Originally actors were the brands, you went to a John Wayne or Fred Astaire movie, or later Arnold or Sly not just of liking the actor, but because they were tied to a genre of film. The modern equivalent would be The Rock, Sandler, Ferrell. Sandler's draw power wasn't just based on him, or else people would have gone to Punch-Drunk Love. It was really the Happy Madison brand of humour that made it so people knew what they were getting. The Rock generally makes The Rock style films.

Eventually however the age of actor draws died because they got empowered and started looking for Oscar nominations and avoiding typecasting. They all got paid so much that adding a few more million didn't make them take roles they're iffy on. They no longer made decisions based now what will be the biggest hit, hence became impossible to control or for Hollywood to take the thing they're best at and build a whole financial brand around them. DiCaprio box office run wasn't quite as big as it could have been, because he makes all different types of films. Django, Wolf of Wall Street, Revenant have nothing to do with each other. So there's no DiCaprio style of film that you can guarantee 100 mil as soon as it's announced. If he makes another J Edgar it's still flopping. Rachel McAdams and Emma Stone both could have been huge romance or romcom stars but don't want to just be known for that genre, so Hollywood can't find its next Meg Ryan or Julia Roberts. Since actors no longer had much to do with the genre of film they picked, it got replaced by popular characters instead of popular actors. Now Iron Man and Jack Sparrow were the real draws, not Arnold and Sly. It also helped to take characters who were already established in pop culture in most comic book heroes.

If that franchise characters period one day dims similar to actor draws, the question is a) Why? and b) What's next? I have to think the most likely scenario is they will just find a way to get new recognizable characters, or somehow get good at creating them again. Maybe eventually genre tastes will change away from VFX blockbusters, but the same principles of franchises will exist. Genres like romance, westerns, detectives, etc. have a lot of print material available if they somehow became in vogue instead of comic books. Another possibility would be the director one day becoming the most important thing financially. But the mainstream audience's appreciation of filmmaking would have to increase a great deal.

_________________
Follow WOKJ's official box office account twitter.com/wokjboxoffice


Wed Dec 26, 2018 1:41 am
Profile
Indiana Jones IV
User avatar

Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am
Posts: 1591
Post Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...
Tim Burton’s Dumbo (March 29, 2019)
Guy Ritchie’s Aladdin (May 24, 2019)
Jon Favreau’s The Lion King (July 19, 2019)
Niki Caro’s Mulan (March 27, 2020)

Pretty sure there was a boardroom debate over whether or not to spread the 2019 slate out. I suppose 2019 was destined to be an all-in year. Disney hit $3.003B last year. They could exceed $3.3B in 2019. :noway:


To your point yes, they are hemorrhaging through their franchises. What else is there besides Little Mermaid? There are not enough Zootopias, Wreck it Ralph’s and Big Hero 6’s to feed the 2021-2025 pipeline...yet. Not at the current rate.

_________________
I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.

I was blind, but now I see.


Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:24 am
Profile
now we know
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 62538
Post Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...
Why can't these live-action remakes spawn sequels?


Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:39 am
Profile
Speed Racer

Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2017 11:21 am
Posts: 116
Post Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...
It'll be a downhill for sure (not just Disney but for a cinema industry as a whole), and that's why regulators around the world allow Disney to buy Fox. I don't know if streaming will replace cinema or not but any platform will need content.


Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:33 am
Profile
Indiana Jones IV
User avatar

Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2005 11:40 am
Posts: 1268
Post Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...
Algren wrote:
Why can't these live-action remakes spawn sequels?


Disney's President of Production said they were were looking at prequels or spin-offs of Beauty and the Beast but nothing has been announced. Since it's already been a couple of years, I wouldn't be surprised to see something pop up on the Disney streaming service instead.

The Jungle Book 2 is in development, but again...been a long time since there were any updates.

_________________
Image


Wed Jan 02, 2019 12:00 pm
Profile WWW
llegó a la casa vía marítima
User avatar

Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm
Posts: 4749
Location: la gran casa de la esquina
Post Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...
Algren wrote:
Why can't these live-action remakes spawn sequels?


They're remakes of self contained stories so a sequel can't rely on nostalgia and looks like a cash grab. Plus, they tried with Alice even when it was based on another book, and it bombed horribly. At any rate, why do sequels when there are still several animated classics left to remake? They haven't even announced The Little Mermaid, The Hunchback of Notre Dame, Bambi, Fantasia, or Pocahontas.

_________________
.


Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:25 am
Profile
now we know
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 62538
Post Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...
I'd rather see a sequel to a remake (you know, it's at least a bit original) than seeing yet another remake of a classic.


Thu Jan 03, 2019 4:48 am
Profile
Gamaur's sex slave
User avatar

Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2005 7:15 pm
Posts: 8787
Location: Los Pollos Hermanos
Post Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...
Algren wrote:
I'd rather see a sequel to a remake (you know, it's at least a bit original) than seeing yet another remake of a classic.


Same here. Remakes I only like if they take another approach to the original material a la The Fly 1959 vs the 1986 version.

_________________
Image


Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:52 pm
Profile
Indiana Jones IV
User avatar

Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am
Posts: 1591
Post Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...
Disney will certainly start feeding the Disney+ beast with some of their tentpole properties, furthering diluting the theatrical pipeline. We see that with Lady and the Tramp remake going to the small screen despite being a legit big budget picture. One driver is Netflix uppping their game. Disney has no choice but to diversify and by doing so split its attention and dollars.

_________________
I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.

I was blind, but now I see.


Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:35 am
Profile
Forum General
User avatar

Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 8:30 am
Posts: 6997
Post Re: Disney is in a bit of trouble...
Are you finally seeing the light?

Not really because you'll still see Lion King and Aladdin which look awful.

Even the once promising Disney Animation has become a mess with WIR2 (sucked) and sequels starting to dominate.

Sequels aren't inherently bad of course, but the approach Disney has taken is deplorable. Also because of their general behaviour and business practices that everyone loves to excuse because they are Marvel and Star Wars fanboys.

Heck, I just saw Mary Poppins because of nostalgia (maybe it too looked like an exact copy, but I don't remember much of it unlike TLK/BATB/Aladdin) but that was a massive letdown and just seemed to miss the point completely. I'm really glad it didn't blow up like was predicted on here.

Given that their predecessors were so well received, I am not sure what they could have done with their live action adaptations (well, besides not touching them) but if they were less greedy and short termist they could have had an actual new take and turn that into a franchise.

_________________
Calls
Ghost Rider + Clash of the Titans = 2x Wrath of the Titans + Ghost Rider 2
Lorax over Despicable Me
Men in Black 3 Under 100m
Madagascar 3 Under 100m
Rise of the Guardians over 250m


Thu Jan 10, 2019 1:16 pm
Profile WWW
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Reply to topic   [ 20 posts ] 

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: exxdee13 and 11 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
cron
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group.
Designed by STSoftware for PTF.