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 How much will Vice flop? 
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Devil's Advocate
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Post How much will Vice flop?
This really needed great reviews and Oscar attention. With a 61 on MC will anyone want to watch a Dick Cheney biopic on Christmas? The movie is about 10 years and 3 months too late

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Tue Dec 18, 2018 12:07 am
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Post Re: How much will Vice flop?
It won't flop. Its performances should garner enough attention, plus there's always people on both sides that are always interested to see what the filmmakers take on it is. And what do we consider a flop anyway? I think if it does $50 million, it's done fine. Below $30 million, yes that would be a flop. But anywhere in-between will be fine-ish.


Tue Dec 18, 2018 12:13 am
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Post Re: How much will Vice flop?
Shit, its budget is $60 million.


Tue Dec 18, 2018 12:14 am
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Post Re: How much will Vice flop?
I don't think it will flop but right now - its not looking like it can reach The Big Short's ~$70m.

It still has Golden Globe nominations and Bale is getting great buzz. The subject is intriguing enough. So should have enough support.

Probably about $45-$55m which would be disappointing but not a disaster.

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Tue Dec 18, 2018 12:29 am
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Post Re: How much will Vice flop?
The Big Short $50m budget
Vice $60m budget
Not too different but yah still too much for the type of movie they are

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Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:21 am
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Post Re: How much will Vice flop?
Appears to be highly polarizing,

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Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:28 am
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Post Re: How much will Vice flop?
I mean, it will get Oscar nominations for at least Bale and Adams so with the star power, Globes nominations, eventual Oscar nominations, etc... I don't think it will flop. Probably 50-60 Million.


Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:24 am
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Post Re: How much will Vice flop?
I'm actually looking forward to this - Bale as Cheney looks amazing, and Rockwell looks like he turns in an entertaining W. The passing of Bush senior likely has drummed up some additional interest.

It doesn't really have much direct Oscar bait competition. The Big Short (which would have a very similar audience) had both Concussion and Joy for biopic competition. There should be plenty of space for this.

On the down side, getting people to pay to watch more politics these days is asking a lot.

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Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:41 am
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Post Re: How much will Vice flop?
Shack wrote:
This really needed great reviews and Oscar attention. With a 61 on MC will anyone want to watch a Dick Cheney biopic on Christmas? The movie is about 10 years and 3 months too late


It's gonna get one of my AMC A List tickets.

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Tue Dec 18, 2018 6:45 pm
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Post Re: How much will Vice flop?
I know McKay is a “serious filmmaker” now, but this movie would bank so much if it switched casts with Holmes and Watson.


Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:05 pm
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Post Re: How much will Vice flop?
I'd say it will do respectable $50m but it won't enough for its $60m budget (they definitely seem to have overspent) and its hardly going to make any money in OS markets.


Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:07 pm
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Post Re: How much will Vice flop?
$60m budget? It would need about $130m domestic to break even considering no one outside the US knows who Dick Cheney is.

Itz a bomb

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Thu Dec 20, 2018 12:52 am
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Post Re: How much will Vice flop?
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
I know McKay is a “serious filmmaker” now, but this movie would bank so much if it switched casts with Holmes and Watson.


True

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Thu Dec 20, 2018 1:17 am
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Post Re: How much will Vice flop?
Barrabás wrote:
$60m budget? It would need about $130m domestic to break even considering no one outside the US knows who Dick Cheney is.


:er:

But yes its foreign gross wont be making up for any domestic short fall.

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Thu Dec 20, 2018 2:03 am
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Post Re: How much will Vice flop?
I was never expecting this to be a big breakout hit. A $50-$60M total seems respectable enough for it, although the potential was probably there for much more.


Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:15 am
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Post Re: How much will Vice flop?
It was not designed to break out. It was made for awards and a "respectable" gross, which it will probably accomplish.


Thu Dec 20, 2018 4:54 am
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Post Re: How much will Vice flop?
The studio behind this film will probably have their hands full with if Beale Street could talk for the awards season. Plus Wolfie 59 MC score in a 67% rating on Rotten Tomatoes after 120 reviews I think it's safe to say this won't be going to the Oscars for any major Awards. This had the potential to be as critical and commercially successful as the big short but it seems like Adam McKay dropped the ball


Sat Dec 22, 2018 2:06 am
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Post Re: How much will Vice flop?
Even though I mostly liked the trailer, the MOST IMPORTANT TRUE STORY YOU DIDN'T EVEN KNOW ABOUT title cards were always obnoxious. So if it flops hard I won't be too sad. That's just bad marketing.


Sat Dec 22, 2018 2:37 pm
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Post Re: How much will Vice flop?
W. Only earned 25m and that was 2008 when his approval was under like 20%. I’m thinking 40m or less. And before you mention reviews or awards, how much more did Steve Jobs earn than the Aston Kutcher movie?


Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:13 pm
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