Aquaman- 75
Mary Poppins- 45 3 day/56 5 day
Bumblebee- 30
Second Act- 11
Welcome to Marwen- 5

Spider Verse- -55%
Grinch- -25%

Welcome to Marwen is an odd project. It presumably enjoyed a healthy budget between Steve Carell in the lead, Robert Zemeckis at the helm, and lots of animated sequences. But it is flying so far under the radar and seems uncomfortably caught between being an Oscar play and a commercial play. It is also just a hard concept to sell: "This Christmas, we present for your top movie-going choice the story of a man who is beaten nearly to death and recovers by creating super-elaborate World War II models!"

Aquaman - 80
Mary Poppins - 40 3-Day/53 5-Day
Bumblebee - 23
Second Act - 7
Welcome to Marwen - 3

Lopez is a draw among Latin audiences. I expect it will open to 10m plus.

Bumblebee will be so overshadowed by Aquaman, but I think it will have better legs.

1. AQUAMAN - 79.67 MILLION (New)
2. MARY POPPINS RETURNS - 43.677 MILLION (3-Day)/57.1 MILLION (5-Day)
3. SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE - 15.56 MILLION (-56%)
4. BUMBLEBEE - 14 MILLION (New)
5. THE MULE - 13.657 MILLION (-22%)
6. THE GRINCH - 9.4 MILLION (-20%)
7. SECOND ACT - 7.63 MILLION (New)
8. WELCOME TO MARWEN - 4.828 MILLION (New)
9. RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET - 4.822 MILLION (-48%)
10. MORTAL ENGINES - 3.099 MILLION (-59%)
11. THE FAVOURITE - 2.967 MILLION
12. CREED II - 2.585 MILLION (-52%)
13. MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS - 2.45 MILLION
14. BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY - 2.113 MILLION (-51%)
15. INSTANT FAMILY - 1.8 MILLION (-52%)

Are people really expecting Bumblebee to do that badly? Damn.

Indeed. Surprised that this film was greenlit at all.

Unfortunately it looks to go the way of Downsizing, though this time the underperformance will not be a surprise.

I'm keen to see how Poppins does after seeing it. I thought it was just okay. I think the younger demographic will enjoy Bumblebee more.

I mean, who is going to see it this weekend? There's way too much competition for families and it won't be the first choice for many. Will leg out though.

Nah. Mike's losing his marbles if he thinks Bumblebee will go that low. It'll be good for $28 million. This isn't 1998 when only one movie could make above $25 million.

There is no denying that Aquaman will eat into Bumblebee's audience, and vice-versa, but people can see more than one movie in three days.

Is it not going to have good WOM? It’s reviews may not be Oscar worthy but they’re fine for making money at the holidays.

I never saw Justice League so I have no idea if that movie served as a good springboard for the Aquaman character or rather if people would have been this interested in the character without JL. Makes me wonder though if JL would have done even LESS without Aquaman in it?

High teens is possible. But you're losing your marbles if you think it's doing 28 Million or even close.

Avatar bet? Whoever's 3-day prediction is closest changes their avatar to what the winner says from now until the new year. So basically it's over/under $21m. You in?

Bumblebee is gonna do 20m+ for the 3-day. It has good buzz.

14 mil for Bumblebee? That would be shocking

I really don't understand Bumblebee's release date though. Head to head with Aquaman is bad news for it.

I'd love if a studio had the balls to release one of these major films a week later on the pre-New Year weekend. Seems ripe for a film like Bumblebee.

Vice and Holmes and Watson technically open next weekend. In that it will be recorded as their opening weekend.

I'm sensing an underperformance for Mary Poppins. I think it may look a bit too young for the usual musical crowd that gave Les Mis/Hairspray/Into the Woods big openings, and kids will be more interested in Bumblebee. Plus, high brow old white people wanting their dose of British sophistication will go see The Favourite instead.

The Favourite is only in 775 cinemas.

Yes indeed. While Poppins could end up slightly softer than initially expected (sat closer to 200m than 300m) - it won't be due to audiences segments seeing The Favourite instead.

Fair point technically that is the case yes.

Why on earth are Spider Verse and Mule still ahead of both Mary Poppins and Aquaman on MT? I think it’s actually worse for Aquaman to be so low considering I’m pretty sure Venom was number 1 by this point.

Discount Tuesday, probably hasn't updated yet.