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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20340 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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December 19-23 Predictions
Aquaman- 75 Mary Poppins- 45 3 day/56 5 day Bumblebee- 30 Second Act- 11 Welcome to Marwen- 5 Spider Verse- -55% Grinch- -25%
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Sun Dec 16, 2018 1:56 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: December 19-23 Predictions
Welcome to Marwen is an odd project. It presumably enjoyed a healthy budget between Steve Carell in the lead, Robert Zemeckis at the helm, and lots of animated sequences. But it is flying so far under the radar and seems uncomfortably caught between being an Oscar play and a commercial play. It is also just a hard concept to sell: "This Christmas, we present for your top movie-going choice the story of a man who is beaten nearly to death and recovers by creating super-elaborate World War II models!"
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Sun Dec 16, 2018 2:05 pm |
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Dil
Forum General
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 9:48 pm Posts: 8942 Location: Houston, Texas
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Re: December 19-23 Predictions
Aquaman - 80 Mary Poppins - 40 3-Day/53 5-Day Bumblebee - 23 Second Act - 7 Welcome to Marwen - 3
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Sun Dec 16, 2018 2:18 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20340 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: December 19-23 Predictions
Lopez is a draw among Latin audiences. I expect it will open to 10m plus.
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Sun Dec 16, 2018 2:27 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67028
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Re: December 19-23 Predictions
Bumblebee will be so overshadowed by Aquaman, but I think it will have better legs.
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Sun Dec 16, 2018 6:46 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: December 19-23 Predictions
1. AQUAMAN - 79.67 MILLION (New) 2. MARY POPPINS RETURNS - 43.677 MILLION (3-Day)/57.1 MILLION (5-Day) 3. SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE - 15.56 MILLION (-56%) 4. BUMBLEBEE - 14 MILLION (New) 5. THE MULE - 13.657 MILLION (-22%) 6. THE GRINCH - 9.4 MILLION (-20%) 7. SECOND ACT - 7.63 MILLION (New) 8. WELCOME TO MARWEN - 4.828 MILLION (New) 9. RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET - 4.822 MILLION (-48%) 10. MORTAL ENGINES - 3.099 MILLION (-59%) 11. THE FAVOURITE - 2.967 MILLION 12. CREED II - 2.585 MILLION (-52%) 13. MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS - 2.45 MILLION 14. BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY - 2.113 MILLION (-51%) 15. INSTANT FAMILY - 1.8 MILLION (-52%)
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Tue Dec 18, 2018 2:10 am |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6137 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: December 19-23 Predictions
Are people really expecting Bumblebee to do that badly? Damn.
_________________ .
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Tue Dec 18, 2018 2:25 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22673 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: December 19-23 Predictions
David wrote: Welcome to Marwen is an odd project. It presumably enjoyed a healthy budget between Steve Carell in the lead, Robert Zemeckis at the helm, and lots of animated sequences. But it is flying so far under the radar and seems uncomfortably caught between being an Oscar play and a commercial play. It is also just a hard concept to sell: "This Christmas, we present for your top movie-going choice the story of a man who is beaten nearly to death and recovers by creating super-elaborate World War II models!" Indeed. Surprised that this film was greenlit at all. Unfortunately it looks to go the way of Downsizing, though this time the underperformance will not be a surprise.
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Tue Dec 18, 2018 2:32 am |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18869 Location: San Diego
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Re: December 19-23 Predictions
I'm keen to see how Poppins does after seeing it. I thought it was just okay. I think the younger demographic will enjoy Bumblebee more.
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Tue Dec 18, 2018 2:43 am |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: December 19-23 Predictions
Barrabás wrote: Are people really expecting Bumblebee to do that badly? Damn. I mean, who is going to see it this weekend? There's way too much competition for families and it won't be the first choice for many. Will leg out though.
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Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:21 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67028
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Re: December 19-23 Predictions
Nah. Mike's losing his marbles if he thinks Bumblebee will go that low. It'll be good for $28 million. This isn't 1998 when only one movie could make above $25 million. There is no denying that Aquaman will eat into Bumblebee's audience, and vice-versa, but people can see more than one movie in three days.
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Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:57 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20340 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: December 19-23 Predictions
publicenemy#1 wrote: I'm keen to see how Poppins does after seeing it. I thought it was just okay. I think the younger demographic will enjoy Bumblebee more. Is it not going to have good WOM? It’s reviews may not be Oscar worthy but they’re fine for making money at the holidays.
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Tue Dec 18, 2018 12:21 pm |
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Proud Ryu
Deshi Basara
Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2007 3:36 pm Posts: 5322 Location: The Interstice
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Re: December 19-23 Predictions
I never saw Justice League so I have no idea if that movie served as a good springboard for the Aquaman character or rather if people would have been this interested in the character without JL. Makes me wonder though if JL would have done even LESS without Aquaman in it?
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Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:15 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: December 19-23 Predictions
Algren wrote: Nah. Mike's losing his marbles if he thinks Bumblebee will go that low. It'll be good for $28 million. This isn't 1998 when only one movie could make above $25 million. There is no denying that Aquaman will eat into Bumblebee's audience, and vice-versa, but people can see more than one movie in three days. High teens is possible. But you're losing your marbles if you think it's doing 28 Million or even close.
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Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:18 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67028
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Re: December 19-23 Predictions
Magic Mike wrote: Algren wrote: Nah. Mike's losing his marbles if he thinks Bumblebee will go that low. It'll be good for $28 million. This isn't 1998 when only one movie could make above $25 million. There is no denying that Aquaman will eat into Bumblebee's audience, and vice-versa, but people can see more than one movie in three days. High teens is possible. But you're losing your marbles if you think it's doing 28 Million or even close. Avatar bet? Whoever's 3-day prediction is closest changes their avatar to what the winner says from now until the new year. So basically it's over/under $21m. You in?
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Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:40 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18869 Location: San Diego
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Re: December 19-23 Predictions
Bumblebee is gonna do 20m+ for the 3-day. It has good buzz.
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Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:29 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 37968
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Re: December 19-23 Predictions
14 mil for Bumblebee? That would be shocking
I really don't understand Bumblebee's release date though. Head to head with Aquaman is bad news for it.
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Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:05 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22673 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: December 19-23 Predictions
I'd love if a studio had the balls to release one of these major films a week later on the pre-New Year weekend. Seems ripe for a film like Bumblebee.
_________________
What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
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Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:35 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20340 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: December 19-23 Predictions
MadGez wrote: I'd love if a studio had the balls to release one of these major films a week later on the pre-New Year weekend. Seems ripe for a film like Bumblebee. Vice and Holmes and Watson technically open next weekend. In that it will be recorded as their opening weekend.
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Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:39 am |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6137 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: December 19-23 Predictions
I'm sensing an underperformance for Mary Poppins. I think it may look a bit too young for the usual musical crowd that gave Les Mis/Hairspray/Into the Woods big openings, and kids will be more interested in Bumblebee. Plus, high brow old white people wanting their dose of British sophistication will go see The Favourite instead.
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Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:08 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67028
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Re: December 19-23 Predictions
The Favourite is only in 775 cinemas.
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Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:30 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22673 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: December 19-23 Predictions
Yes indeed. While Poppins could end up slightly softer than initially expected (sat closer to 200m than 300m) - it won't be due to audiences segments seeing The Favourite instead.
_________________
What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
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Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:17 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22673 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: December 19-23 Predictions
zwackerm wrote: MadGez wrote: I'd love if a studio had the balls to release one of these major films a week later on the pre-New Year weekend. Seems ripe for a film like Bumblebee. Vice and Holmes and Watson technically open next weekend. In that it will be recorded as their opening weekend. Fair point technically that is the case yes.
_________________
What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=85934
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Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:18 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20340 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: December 19-23 Predictions
Why on earth are Spider Verse and Mule still ahead of both Mary Poppins and Aquaman on MT? I think it’s actually worse for Aquaman to be so low considering I’m pretty sure Venom was number 1 by this point.
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Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:21 am |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18869 Location: San Diego
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Re: December 19-23 Predictions
Discount Tuesday, probably hasn't updated yet.
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Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:35 am |
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