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goodvibe61
Waitress in LA
Joined: Fri Dec 21, 2007 4:00 pm Posts: 29
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The Big Holiday Duel: Aquaman vs. Mary Poppins Returns!
This is shaping up to be quite the battle. I'm sure that everyone will be excited to watch the grosses on a daily basis for both of these juggernauts.
How do you see this playing out?
Which will film will win the opening 3 and 5 day holiday weekend (Friday 12/21 through Tuesday 12/25)? And what will those numbers be?
Which will film will be ahead by the end of the second holiday weekend (Friday 12/28 through Tuesday 1/1/19)?
And just how huge are these 2 behemoths going to be?
I think that the comic book fans are going to come out right away and propel Aquaman to a big win during the opening weekend. With all the traditional things happening that keep movie goers away from the cinema leading up to the holiday (school finishing up, christmas shopping to finish up, travel starting up, etcetera), families probably won't start turning up in droves for Poppins until Christmas Day.
But beginning Christmas Day, I expect the tide (thanks, I'll be here all week) will turn and Mary will surge and overtake Aquaman. The huge weekdays after Christmas will probably see eye poppingly giant numbers for Mary, and the biggest interest will be in watching how Aquaman holds up after the initial front loaded turnout has subsided. I think Mary Poppins will be ahead by the time New Year's Day rolls around, and she'll be pulling away from the holiday field.
Opening Weekend 3 day: Aquaman 65 Million, Poppins 43 Million Opening Weekend 5 day: Aquaman 87 Million, Poppins 72 Million
By New Year's Day? Mary Poppins 175 Million, Aquaman 150 Million
I think Poppins will really start extending the lead during the second five day holiday weekend, and will go on to some pretty fantastic numbers. And DC will have a real hit on their hands with Aquaman. I think it's too much to expect a film like Aquaman to perform like Jumanji did last holiday season; those kind of legs are extremely rare.
There are so many films opening beginning next weekend, and with specialty films opening as well, the marketplace should really be set to explode over the next couple of weeks.
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Sun Dec 09, 2018 9:02 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18878 Location: San Diego
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Re: The Big Holiday Duel: Aquaman vs. Mary Poppins Returns!
Another thing will be interesting is if anything else besides Bumblebee, Poppins and Aquaman could gross over $75m. Last year idk if anyone saw Greatest Showman being as huge a hit as it was but I'm not sensing that from anything this year.
Marwen seems like a flop unless reviews are good. Second Act probably won't do over $50m but who knows since there really hasn't been a film aimed at women since maybe A Star is Born. Holmes and Watson... eh. Vice may be the one to do it but I don't expect it to open big but play throughout awards season.
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Sun Dec 09, 2018 9:29 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20346 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: The Big Holiday Duel: Aquaman vs. Mary Poppins Returns!
Aquaman will easily win opening weekend. Other than that no clue. I think Mary Poppins will make more weekend 2 but Aquaman's head start could be enough to keep it ahead total wise.
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Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:02 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38006
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Re: The Big Holiday Duel: Aquaman vs. Mary Poppins Returns!
I'm going with Aquaman here as a 300 mil breakout. I didn't realize its reviews were out already and a solid 73% on RT and being praised for being goofy fun. I think like Jumanji that's perfect for a holiday blockbuster
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:34 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22680 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: The Big Holiday Duel: Aquaman vs. Mary Poppins Returns!
Aquaman is the first major comic book superhero film to open at Christmas so it does have a lot going for it. It will have the bigger opening but will be more frontloaded.
I get the feeling that this could be another Venom/ASIB combo where instead of both hovering close to $200m, they'll both battle it out for $275-$300m. One with a bigger opening, the other with better legs.
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Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:37 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Re: The Big Holiday Duel: Aquaman vs. Mary Poppins Returns!
The expansion of the holiday box office has always fascinated me. This year, the average American will spend around $700 on Christmas gifts. One would think that would leave little to head to the movies, and yet, it's one of the most lucrative times of the year. I'll have to decide which ones I check out (only definite is Mary Poppins at the moment) and the rest will have to wait until streaming.
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Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:08 am |
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Thegun
On autopilot for the summer
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm Posts: 21641 Location: Walking around somewhere
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Re: The Big Holiday Duel: Aquaman vs. Mary Poppins Returns!
$700? Come on? I spent about 2400 last year but with cheat apps and coupons it went down to about 325 dollars. And no they were not knockoffs. Seriously we are in the worst period because people enjoy complacency way too much. Just look online! And then you'll have a few extra bucks to see both movies.
_________________Chippy wrote: As always, fuck Thegun. Chippy wrote: I want to live vicariously through you, Thegun!
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Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:37 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38006
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Re: The Big Holiday Duel: Aquaman vs. Mary Poppins Returns!
I thought Poppins RT score would be higher.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Thu Dec 13, 2018 3:37 pm |
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Thegun
On autopilot for the summer
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm Posts: 21641 Location: Walking around somewhere
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Re: The Big Holiday Duel: Aquaman vs. Mary Poppins Returns!
Ah, that's more than fine for candy fluff. AM being in the 70s is surprising. I thought it would be swimming in the 40s
_________________Chippy wrote: As always, fuck Thegun. Chippy wrote: I want to live vicariously through you, Thegun!
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Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:14 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38006
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Re: The Big Holiday Duel: Aquaman vs. Mary Poppins Returns!
Star Wars moving out of December for Mary Poppins
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Wed Dec 26, 2018 9:00 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67043
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Re: The Big Holiday Duel: Aquaman vs. Mary Poppins Returns!
This was a big wash out.
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Thu Dec 27, 2018 1:29 am |
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