...much better than expected...

Woah, where did that come from???? That's like half what I expected for Friday. It has virtually no presence on FB or Twitter whatsoever.

Helps prove my point that they should have put Girl in Spider's Web here or next weekend. Two full weekends devoid of new wide releases is absurd. Horror is always a good choice for post holidays - it always kills it the first week of the new year after a week of family fluff and feel-good leftovers.

A pleasant but seemingly undeserving surprise for a film better suited for a DTV release. I guess the 5.5M Youtube views deceived plenty into thinking it's a decent film.

I wouldn't say horror is always a good choice for post holidays. Rarely does much after Thanksgiving (Incarnate, The Pyramid, The Collection - though this didn't do too bad). But after Christmas it's pretty much a recipe for success. Of course they haven't really given much with potential a chance after Thanksgiving. Krampus is the only one I can think of, and that did pretty well.

Very curious how it performs over the weekend. The more the merrier, even if it doesn't look great. Would still be a success for a weekend normally devoid of new wide openers. It is right behind Krampus for its Thursday preview number. That was PG-13, pretty well-reviewed, and had some family appeal though. This has none of that. Definitely don't think it will reach those heights at all but its Thursday being so close in gross to a 16 Million horror opener over the same weekend frame is encouraging. I think it's highly unlikely it even gets to double digits this weekend, but it doesn't need to.

Incarnate did $120,000 in preview numbers and opened with 2.53 Million. Maybe a similar multiplier?

I'm thinking $3m/$7.5m. Crazy it will gross as much today as I predicted for the entire weekend.

It's a good choice when there's otherwise a total vacuum - I would argue those films were pure dumps and would have done a lot less (percentage wise) without their release dates. A great example is It - total home run on the slowest weekend of the year, after a major holiday. This is prime real estate for your more gothic or mid-low tier horror film that will just get buried if you pit it against too many big films. It just drives me nuts that studios are so terrified of the first 1-2 weeks after thanksgiving. Last year also there was nothing for 2 full weeks.

I don't think they're terrified necessarily of the weekend after Thanksgiving, but more have dollar signs in their eyes and think they either need to release it on Thanksgiving weekend or delay it so gets more of that December Christmas money.

It's got to be a specific type of scenario where a studio is not interested in taking advantage of either big holiday.

This. But it's really annoying. Movies can do fine here but studios rarely give it a shot except with movies that obviously aren't going to do well no matter where you release them.

There are so few examples of a studio taking a chance on this date with a movie that has potential. The Last Samurai opened on this weekend in 2003 and grossed 24.3 Million and opened at #1. Opening at #2 was Honey which did 12.856 Million. In 2015 Krampus opened with 16.3 Million. I swear those are it. It does not have to be a dud weekend. I wish something would open over this weekend to huge numbers and make it less of a dumping ground.

Yeah that's why I say it is prime ground for mid tier horror, or perhaps just mid tier anything, though I do think it's ripest for horror. The fear is they think their low/mid tier stuff can make more on better dates, so they pit them against 2-3 other films, and of course they get somewhat lost in the mix. We've seen time and again that being the one film opening wide on a weekend has significant value, and having 2 full weekends to yourself is crazy. Just don't be the film that feeds most heavily on family holiday time - anything R rated or on the darker side and has a fervent gene fanbase is a prime candidate.

Also if you know your film sucks, what better way to get the most out of it than giving it its own weekend so you can suck in dollars before word gets out. I've definitely seen new movies that I night not otherwise see just because there was nothing new out and I wanted to go to the theater.

Early estimate is $6M weekene. Still pretty good. $28.5M would also be really nice for Ralph after all the freedalling its been doing.