It looks like a crowd-pleaser, but it also looks very family-oriented so I think that may taper the OW potential a bit but increase legs. I see an OW around $115m-$135m now (depending on reviews).

Aladdin is certainly toast. It's already on thin ice, but it won't be able to withstand two mega openers so soon before it. Families can't spend $100+ for a movie outing three times in a month.

Those are bold predictions. Let's say I'm on-board with this being huge (I'm not, but let's say I am), it will be a $70-$80m opener, not Deadpool / IT range opener. It's a family movie and surely won't have that type of fervent fan that shows up opening weekend.

I see this having a lot of appeal with fans, so opening around $100m sounds very likely to me now, if it's also appealing with families then it's going to do incredibly well. It's not my kind of movie, so while I think a big opening weekend will happen, I hope it fizzles the legs. Look forward to see how it does.

If it opens to $100m on fans alone, then it's going to be huge and naturally attract families.

Yeah, I have no doubt this will be HUGE, but $70-$80m would still be a major breakout.

It seems $70m will be the floor. at this point

Previews for this one will be big. $15m+.

150m+ | 400m+

God damn. This movie is gonna be huge.

How the market is going to handle this and Endgame at the same time is going to be very, very interesting.

Predictions:

Friday: $64 million ($16 million previews)
Saturday: $52 million
Sunday: $39 million

Opening Weekend: $155 million
Total: $445 million
Worldwide: $1.15 billion

#3 movie of the summer if you count Endgame as a summer movie.

This has to be some kind of personal disconnect record for me. All this talk about it being huge and it probably will be. I guess it's easier to have tempered expectations when a certain movie isn't your thing.

I mean I don't blame you Rolling Thunder. The online hype is definitely the most vocal so far, but as far as real world hype goes that probably won't kick in until after Endgame.

Idk do you know how big a fanbase Pokemon has? A lot of 90s kids grew up with this, so this has a built in fanbase in addition to just looking like an appealing movie for people who aren't necessarily fans.

You don't have to be a fan of Pokémon to see that the real fans, of which there are millions, have been very enthusiastic about the trailers.

The poster campaign they're going for is interesting, most of them feature Pikachu in the background as a small silhouette and focus more on the futuristic city. Maybe they don't want it to seem too kiddy like an animated movie-style poster, with the CGI character front and centre and some wacky tagline over it?

In China, they've gone for the CGI character front-and-centre approach.

I wonder how big this can be OS. I'm sure it'll pass Warcraft's 386 million, could this do over 500 OS?

Is Pokémon still huge in Japan?

Under $500m would be a disappointment tbh. This is a Pokemon live action movie and it looks good. There is no reason this shouldn't be ludicrously big around the world.

You guys are going to be so disappointed.

I am not sure why people are so sure of this.

Endgame will be in its 3rd weekend at that time, and the Pokemon crowd is not exactly the same as the Superhero crowd.

The "Superhero crowd". That's like saying "the people with eyes".

Lol there's definitely audience overlap. I bet at least 75% of the adults who will see Pikachu will see Endgame this weekend.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmnkAOO6Qo4

This new trailer

I'd argue this has the best marketing for any film we've seen or will see this year.

I would go see this in theatres even if it had -50% on RT and Ryan Reynolds was convicted for first degree murder. They look SO good. All my life I've imagined what real-life Pokemon would be like and they NAILED it.

This is doing 150m+ I think. I feel like it could even do 160-170. If reviews end up being good, I think this could be unstoppable.