Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20340 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
Re: Aladdin predictions
This will still be people’s third choice in May. It should move to August, or September . I don’t see very many families shelling out $100 to see a movie they can watch at home just animated over Avengers or Detective Pikachu. It’s only gonna be a priority for hardcore Disney fans who haven’t already been turned off.
Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:56 pm
Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
Re: Aladdin predictions
You can also get your Pikachu fill easily through that endless animation series. Most families will also not be shelling $100 for watching Avengers again, by 4 weeks they would have already seen it once. Besides Disney Princess movies will not only attract families you are forgetting female demograph and to a good extent teenagers.
I am not saying that this will do gangbusters but May for now seems appropriate for it. Coming after TLK might not turn out to be good for this.
Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:17 am
publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18870 Location: San Diego
Re: Aladdin predictions
September would've been a great date for this.
I think this can do 100m+ for the 4-day.
Fri Mar 15, 2019 1:37 am
Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6138 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
Re: Aladdin predictions
I think we could have a May 2007 situation on our hands with three films doing $100m+ OW (Avengers included).
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Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:07 pm
Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23758 Location: Classified
Re: Aladdin predictions
Barrabás wrote:
I think we could have a May 2007 situation on our hands with three films doing $100m+ OW (Avengers included).
Pikachu = Shrek, Aladdin = Pirates and John Wick = Spider-Man. Makes sense.
I liked the trailer and am back in. Have only seen two of the LARs in theaters (Alice and Book), this is likely to be the third.
Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:58 pm
publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18870 Location: San Diego
Re: Aladdin predictions
Um... John Wick is not opening over 70m.
Fri Mar 15, 2019 1:55 pm
Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
Re: Aladdin predictions
How would John Wick jump from $30m OW/$92m total of the previous entry to $100m OW this time? Even Twilight didn't get such jump and NM was a huge surprise/jump.
Yeah as much as I would love it JW3 isn't opening to $100M lol. Either way this is going to suffer being surrounded by so many heavy hitters unless the marketing from here on out is spectacular.
Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:39 pm
Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6138 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
Re: Aladdin predictions
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
Barrabás wrote:
I think we could have a May 2007 situation on our hands with three films doing $100m+ OW (Avengers included).
Pikachu = Shrek, Aladdin = Pirates and John Wick = Spider-Man. Makes sense.
I liked the trailer and am back in. Have only seen two of the LARs in theaters (Alice and Book), this is likely to be the third.
lol I think you missed the "Avengers included" part.
Obviously I meant:
Spider Man 3 = Avengers Endgame Shrek the Third = Pikachu Pirates 3 = Aladdin
They're even the same type of film. Superhero, family adventure, and period/fantasy.
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Sat Mar 16, 2019 2:17 am
Alex Y.
Top Poster
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 4:47 pm Posts: 5705
Re: Aladdin predictions
2018=Better comparison box office wise Infinity war = Endgame (both Avengers blockbusters) Deadpool 2 = Pikachu (both starring Ryan Reynold’s voice) Solo = Aladdin (both considered Disney bombs, best case scenario is barely $100m over 4-day instead of 3-day)
Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:12 am
DP07
Homo Dperious
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 14470 Location: Everywhere
Re: Aladdin predictions
Last trailer: straight out of a parody of a big budget movie gone wrong.
This one is a big improvement. A) They seem to have worked on the genie’s special effects (no doubt there was some panic at Disney). B) He looks better when you see he doesn’t have legs. I guess our brains are not expecting him to look human and our imaginations take over. C) He also won’t always be blue.
Really by May I don’t think many people will remember the February trailer if they can keep this tone.
Sun Mar 24, 2019 1:33 am
Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6138 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
Re: Aladdin predictions
Trailer has 45M views and the likes/dislike ratio is overwhelmingly positive. Disney may have just saved this movie, could $1B+ WW be in play again? It certainly has the iconic stature and nostalgia to have a really high BO ceiling, we all saw what happened with BatB and Jungle Book. It's kind of a wildcard this summer.
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Sun Mar 24, 2019 3:31 am
lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am Posts: 3129
Re: Aladdin predictions
Barrabás wrote:
Trailer has 45M views and the likes/dislike ratio is overwhelmingly positive. Disney may have just saved this movie, could $1B+ WW be in play again? It certainly has the iconic stature and nostalgia to have a really high BO ceiling, we all saw what happened with BatB and Jungle Book. It's kind of a wildcard this summer.
I feel like it needs one more good trailer to help cleanse the palate. Also, it wouldn't hurt to have Dumbo be a good film.
_________________ I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
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Mon Mar 25, 2019 12:21 pm
Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67028
Re: Aladdin predictions
Disney may have just pulled one of the greatest marketing coups of this century. I'm looking forward to Aladdin way more than The Lion King now. Be it the turnaround with its trailers or just to see how awful or great Will Smith as the Genie will be, it all amounts to a much more interesting project than the all-too-perfect CG-rendition of The Lion King. It's so weird to be feeling this way, too. Because I so wanted this film to fail. lol. There's just more to get my teeth stuck into with this movie. More potential for failure. And that excites me more than yet another Disney animal movie drawing at the heart strings.
Mon Mar 25, 2019 11:27 pm
Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67028
Re: Aladdin predictions
Love it.
Tue Mar 26, 2019 12:49 am
Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6138 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
Re: Aladdin predictions
Great poster. It's like they woke up a month ago and realized "hey, don't we have a bunch of iconic songs and scenes that we could use to market this?".
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20340 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
Re: Aladdin predictions
I think it opens right around what Solo did but the legs won’t be quite as awful.
Thu May 02, 2019 2:25 pm
O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11514
Re: Aladdin predictions
Feel the tide is turning a little bit and now this is due for a breakout. Expectations are so low already that could see a underestimated event film like JW. As much as people will bash blue Will Smith its still going to be a pop culture event.
Sat May 11, 2019 1:34 am
Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6138 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
Re: Aladdin predictions
This has the market all to itself now, I feel like $100m OW is in play again.
I hate Disney so much.
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Sat May 11, 2019 1:51 am
Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6166
Re: Aladdin predictions
John Wick 3 will break out big time. Other thing disney is delaying the reviews to as late as possible. Does not sound like a breakout to me. That said this is not bombing.
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Sat May 11, 2019 2:56 am
O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11514
Re: Aladdin predictions
Believe the original film was #5 at one time for all time overseas gross. It's overseas tally is going to be monstrous this time.
Sat May 11, 2019 2:57 am
Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67028
Re: Aladdin predictions
I'm much happier this not bombing and Pikachu bombing than the other way around.
Sat May 11, 2019 5:42 am
Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 37969
Re: Aladdin predictions
This is hilarious. The so bad it's good potential for this is through the roof
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