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 Victory on Day 153: A Star is Born > Venom Total Domestic 
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Post Victory on Day 153: A Star is Born > Venom Total Domestic
PG-13 Venom smells like a turd. Think it's going to open higher but crash and burn where A Star is Born's only competition for the first six weeks of it's run is First Man.

Anyone else in?


Last edited by MovieDude on Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:21 am, edited 1 time in total.



Thu Sep 27, 2018 5:34 pm
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Post Re: A Star is Born > Venom Total Domestic
I was born IN.


Thu Sep 27, 2018 6:07 pm
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Post Re: A Star is Born > Venom Total Domestic
IN.


Thu Sep 27, 2018 6:08 pm
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Post Re: A Star is Born > Venom Total Domestic
I'm in for it doubling Venom.


Thu Sep 27, 2018 6:34 pm
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Post Re: A Star is Born > Venom Total Domestic
I think no, Venom will make more.

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Thu Sep 27, 2018 6:53 pm
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Post Re: A Star is Born > Venom Total Domestic
Easy, in.


Thu Sep 27, 2018 11:08 pm
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Post Re: A Star is Born > Venom Total Domestic
Venom will open higher I'm sure but A Star Is Born will definitely make more. I'm in.

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Fri Sep 28, 2018 3:34 am
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Post Re: A Star is Born > Venom Total Domestic
Yes I'm in.

Venom will open big but free fall. Star will open well and have good legs.

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Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:38 am
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Post Re: A Star is Born > Venom Total Domestic
Definitely in.

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Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:41 am
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Post Re: A Star is Born > Venom Total Domestic
IN


Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:14 am
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Post Re: A Star is Born > Venom Total Domestic
Seems like an easy in. The only potential problem I see is the R rating for A Star Is Born. There are very few R rated successful musicals. If nothing else, I think it could prevent it from being a huge breakout. I still think it will beat Venom though.


Fri Sep 28, 2018 3:00 pm
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Post Re: A Star is Born > Venom Total Domestic
Well I wouldn't really call it a "musical" just because it has music. A good comparison might be 8 Mile which, adjusted did $186,139,800. That wasn't an awards season player though and had bad legs after opening over 51 Million unadjusted (81,755,600 adjusted, which is pretty insane).

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Fri Sep 28, 2018 5:06 pm
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Post Re: A Star is Born > Venom Total Domestic
Magic Mike wrote:
Well I wouldn't really call it a "musical" just because it has music. A good comparison might be 8 Mile which, adjusted did $186,139,800. That wasn't an awards season player though and had bad legs after opening over 51 Million unadjusted (81,755,600 adjusted, which is pretty insane).

How is it not a musical? The movie has like 20 full length songs.

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Fri Sep 28, 2018 6:28 pm
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Post Re: A Star is Born > Venom Total Domestic
zwackerm wrote:
Magic Mike wrote:
Well I wouldn't really call it a "musical" just because it has music. A good comparison might be 8 Mile which, adjusted did $186,139,800. That wasn't an awards season player though and had bad legs after opening over 51 Million unadjusted (81,755,600 adjusted, which is pretty insane).

How is it not a musical? The movie has like 20 full length songs.


The songs in both films exist as diegetic sound within the narrative of the film.

I think it's also a good comparison in that this is really Lady Gaga's first lead role in a film.


Fri Sep 28, 2018 6:43 pm
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Post Re: A Star is Born > Venom Total Domestic
MovieDude wrote:
zwackerm wrote:
Magic Mike wrote:
Well I wouldn't really call it a "musical" just because it has music. A good comparison might be 8 Mile which, adjusted did $186,139,800. That wasn't an awards season player though and had bad legs after opening over 51 Million unadjusted (81,755,600 adjusted, which is pretty insane).

How is it not a musical? The movie has like 20 full length songs.


The songs in both films exist as diegetic sound within the narrative of the film.

I think it's also a good comparison in that this is really Lady Gaga's first lead role in a film.

The songs are not all diegetic, id guess, but I’d have to see it to know for sure.

And it can still be a musical if the songs are diegetic.

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Fri Sep 28, 2018 7:06 pm
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Post Re: A Star is Born > Venom Total Domestic
I'm not here for parsing through the weeds but I don't think that most people consider films about music to be the same as musicals with heightened artifice where the cast spontaneously breaks into an elaborate song and dance number.


Fri Sep 28, 2018 7:47 pm
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Post Re: A Star is Born > Venom Total Domestic
MovieDude wrote:
I'm not here for parsing through the weeds but I don't think that most people consider films about music to be the same as musicals with heightened artifice where the cast spontaneously breaks into an elaborate song and dance number.


Well, it's not The Greatest Showman or Mamma Mia!, but it's certainly probably as much of a musical as La La Land.

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Fri Sep 28, 2018 8:43 pm
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Post Re: A Star is Born > Venom Total Domestic
I'd go as far to say it will have a higher opening weekend

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Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:33 pm
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Post Re: A Star is Born > Venom Total Domestic
MovieDude wrote:
PG-13 Venom smells like a turd. Think it's going to open higher but crash and burn where A Star is Born's only competition for the first six weeks of it's run is First Man.

Anyone else in?


Totally in. Here are my temporary final prediction totals:

ASIB: $180m
Venom: $125m


Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:35 pm
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Post Re: A Star is Born > Venom Total Domestic
Looks like we have a horse race on our hands!

First weekend:
Venom $80,255,756
A Star is Born (2018) $44,258,051

End of second weekend:
Venom $142,802,151
A Star is Born $94,160,360

Can A Star is Born catch up? I have to admit I'm impressed by Venom's second weekend decline but I think it speaks to audiences liking it more than critics. Still think A Star is Born is going to beat it, but now the question is how long will it take?


Mon Oct 15, 2018 1:48 am
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Post Re: A Star is Born > Venom Total Domestic
It was $36m behind. Now it's $48m behind. That's not going in the right direction for this club to succeed.


Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:06 am
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Post Re: A Star is Born > Venom Total Domestic
bl1222 wrote:
MovieDude wrote:
PG-13 Venom smells like a turd. Think it's going to open higher but crash and burn where A Star is Born's only competition for the first six weeks of it's run is First Man.

Anyone else in?


Totally in. Here are my temporary final prediction totals:

ASIB: $180m
Venom: $125m


Funny post in hindsight...

Anyway, in, ASIB will eventually pass Venom, even if it takes a 2028 re-release


Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:24 am
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Post Re: A Star is Born > Venom Total Domestic
If Venom has a 3x multiplier from its 2nd weekend it'll end with 214 million. A Star is Born has a long run ahead but it'll be a long one to 200m, and it's not even certain it'll get past 190m so we will see.


Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:07 am
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Post Re: A Star is Born > Venom Total Domestic
Tuesday down 35% week to week. The Friday increase is bound to be better (how could it go anywhere but up?); the first weekdays tend to be inflated for surprise openers. I think it’s good for a drop under 30%.


Thu Oct 18, 2018 12:59 pm
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Post Re: A Star is Born > Venom Total Domestic
Five weekends in A Star is Born is now making $11,003,083 to Venom's $7,877,174. A Star is Born dropped 21%... but Venom only dropped 26%! Totals are now $165,537,649 for ASIB vs $198,690,522 for Venom.

Long legs are possible but it seems like Venom overindexed too much for ASIB's overperformance to be enough. Still pretty phenomenal that we'll have two movies open in 1st weekend of October and make over $400 million combined.


Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:01 pm
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