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 Underestimating A Weekend Estimate 
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KJ's Leading Pundit
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Post Underestimating A Weekend Estimate
Someone on twitter pointed this out, and while it's pretty specific, there is an interesting trend.

For films that finish first on their Opening Weekend, 5 movies have been underestimated by >5% (estimate to actuals) since 2015.

Those films are: Crazy Rich Asians, Black Panther, It, Get Out, and Straight Outta Compton.

Of those, It is the only one without a "diverse" cast, unless you consider children a diverse cast.

Is the reason for the studios underestimating these films purely due to their lack of understanding of how minority audiences watch films? Or is it simply because those films all had monster WOM?

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Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:03 pm
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Post Re: Underestimating A Weekend Estimate
It's a WOM issue - studios underestimate how fast WOM can accelerate from Friday (or really, previews) to Sunday. They have more than enough data on demographics where I don't see that being the problem.

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Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:24 pm
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Post Re: Underestimating A Weekend Estimate
I mean, that was my initial thought too. But it is strange that it's only happened to those 5 films (since 2015). Could just be a "why the arbitrary 5%" or "why only for #1 movies".

Estimates are pretty off for religious films, too. But those rarely finish #1. I can't find any other #1 films that was estimated >5% off through 2011. Bridesmaids was 7.5% off! but finished #2.

Valentine's Day!!! was #1 and was 7.3% off, back in 2010. More than 5 years prior to SOC. Avatar (5.5%) prior to that. Michael Jackson's This is It?! prior to that (9.1%). That's it through 2009.

Maybe it was just a weird blip in the trend for the 5 films mentioned.

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Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:50 pm
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Post Re: Underestimating A Weekend Estimate
I think it's just underestimating hype, which I guess is the same as WOM. Those films had no precedent to do THAT well, instead hype carried them to unforeseen heights. If history is not repeating itself it's hard to predict.


Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:56 pm
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Post Re: Underestimating A Weekend Estimate
It's possible the WOM effect is stronger in minorities with closer knit communities

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Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:19 pm
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Post Re: Underestimating A Weekend Estimate
I think it's a combo of demographics and WOM.

Black films and horror films (which often skew black) do tend to drop more heavily on Sunday than other films, so in addition to WOM, those films are probably picking up a white audience on Sunday that is hard to predict.

Also it shows they are appealing to older and more conservative demographics which help bolster a Sunday.

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Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:31 pm
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Post Re: Underestimating A Weekend Estimate
It's a WOM issue because studios typically do not know how minority audiences work, so it's both, but it's more about demography.


Tue Aug 21, 2018 7:45 pm
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Post Re: Underestimating A Weekend Estimate
stuffp wrote:
I think it's just underestimating hype, which I guess is the same as WOM. Those films had no precedent to do THAT well, instead hype carried them to unforeseen heights. If history is not repeating itself it's hard to predict.


Yeah, surprise hits tend to be underestimated (including It). This is partly the effect of sellouts in context of higher than expected demand, and buzz lasting beyond opening day.

I don't think it is just a coincidence that mainstream films that don't center on Middle America can become surprise hits.


Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:46 am
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Post Re: Underestimating A Weekend Estimate
This might help with underestimation: https://www.slashfilm.com/most-anticipa ... 18-movies/


Fri Aug 31, 2018 9:00 pm
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