It's happening

Trailer views don't lie

Members:

-Brbs
-Biggestgeekever
-publicenemy#1



EDIT: trailer views lied

In. Thinking $115M+

Generation Z loves they're D-List heroes.

Would be surprised if it managed a $50m opening.

I hope it does great, but this is too much for me.

Out.

In.

OUT!

I’ll be happy if it tops 50m OW

Out

I lean toward no. I see an opening around 67 million.

Venom is an iconic character, particularly, I feel, with children of the 1990s, but my reservations:

- Will it be a quality film? (I certainly hope so, but still.) Genre movies are no longer entirely review-proof. Not in the era of Rotten Tomatoes. Is Ruben Fleischer (Zombieland, 30 Minutes or Less, Gangster Squad) going to deliver a well-reviewed film?

- Will it be rated PG-13 or a more restrictive R? The trailer screams PG-13, but I remember reading they were aiming for the latter. It also feels dark and VERY geared toward young men, without the family appeal of most Marvel pictures (or the date-night appeal the first Deadpool enjoyed with its Valentine's release).

- The October record is held by Gravity with "only" 55 million. No October release has ever even flirted with 100m.

OUT. All the valid reasons in the post above

That's because no studio has ever put a film with MEGA potential in October. Until now. As Hollywood moves more towards dependency on big franchises, in a few years October will probably be the new March, which itself is the new July. There aren't enough slots in Spring/Summer/Holidays to put all the $200m tentpoles.

David raises a number of valid question marks about this films potebtial. This will limit the film from breaking out at 100m.

However - I believe there is no month on the calendar that can't deliver a 100m opener. October will be the last to do it but it will do it with the right film.

The key to this novie’s success is somehow getting it tied to the MCU

Out. Spiderman isn't in it and neither is Ironman.

I'd be in for $75 mil. Pending a great final trailer.

October record maybe, but no chance it does 100.

Out. Second trailer was better received but I don't see this getting to $100m in any month. Doesn't resonate to me as a 4 quadrant draw.

Seems like a good time to bump this

The film seems too dark and Venom was never portrayed as a sympathetic/caring character for families to give this a chance. Plus there are almost no funny or family oriented scenes in the trailer. They should have gone with a hard R-rating in its marketing but I guess they were trying to find the please both type of audience and had no idea of its appeal (or surprising trailer views). It has good appeal to adults but that's mostly when it is in competition with Spider-man (who is not in this). I don't think this will do better than Ant-Man OW or total wise. Now this will do well for the type of movie it is but its NOT going to become a $200m+ and $100m OW hit.

Venom cracking wise at the end of the new trailer!

Please bomb!

I liked the new trailer and am definitely excited. I still don't see 100 OW. Film is supposed to be Rated R. This isn't Deadpool but I do feel like 200 is doable.

No way this happens , you really expect this to double the current Oct opening weekend record? (Gravity- $55.7m or The Martian- $54.3m) It will be lucky to get to 40m.
- R- Rated film (Would out-gross Logan $88.4m, a beloved character)
- No film other than "Suicide Squad" and "It" has crossed $100m OW from August to November. Including the great "Guardians of the Galaxy".
- General audiences don't know this character and it doesn't have the unique hooks that Deadpool or Black Panther had.
- Tom Hardy
-Reviews, guarantee this is Rotten with no higher than 30% rating

^He's right, you know.

No way this movie comes anywhere near $100M OW. This character just doesn't have that kind of mass appeal and please don't bring up Deadpool as a comparison. That movie had so much going for it that not even the sequel could recapture. If this did $100M domestic that would be a pretty big win IMO.

First thing I would say is that BO rules and records are meant to be broken. Just look at IT or Black Panther or American Sniper.

That said - I agree with everything you've said.

This should have a solid $45-$60m OW and a $140-150m-ish total thanks to there being a fanbase. But cant see it breaking out much further.

Especially if Halloween breaks out like it is set to do (which will hurt legs and take away buzz).