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May 25-28 Predictions
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=84391		 Page 2 of 2
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Thu May 24, 2018 2:18 am ]
Post subject:  Re: May 25-28 Predictions
The pre-sales are MUCH bigger this far out for a movie to breakout and I don't think this is the kind of movie that will have HUGE walk-up business like MCU to compensate for lack of HUGE OD (previews will be BIG for sure). I mean its Wednesday and Solo is still behind DP2 at MT (36.7% vs 32.8%) and the later opened to $125m, I don't see how Solo out-opens that opening.
Author:  Rolling Thunder [ Thu May 24, 2018 8:36 am ]
Post subject:  Re: May 25-28 Predictions
Solo's 7-9pm shows tonight are sold-out or mostly full, as expected. However, most of the shows after 9pm have plenty of seats available here. You can sit anywhere you want after 10pm. Not typical for a SW film.
Author:  Algren [ Thu May 24, 2018 8:42 am ]
Post subject:  Re: May 25-28 Predictions
Solo gives me a family entertainment type of Star Wars vibe, not a Revenge of the Sith must-rush-out-see-it-five-times-on-opening-day vibe. If the two were bodily gestures, Solo would be a shrug of the shoulders, while Revenge of the Sith was throbbing penis about to explode.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Thu May 24, 2018 11:04 am ]
Post subject:  Re: May 25-28 Predictions
I thought with those early presales numbers at the least the previews would be HUGE.
Author:  i.hope [ Thu May 24, 2018 11:21 am ]
Post subject:  Re: May 25-28 Predictions
Thinking $110-120m 4-day for Solo.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Thu May 24, 2018 12:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 25-28 Predictions
That would be lower than DP's 3-day. The meltdowns will be epic.
Author:  zwackerm [ Thu May 24, 2018 9:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 25-28 Predictions
Sub 20m previews for Solo most likely. I’m thinking 19m.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Thu May 24, 2018 9:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 25-28 Predictions
Haha no one dared to predict previews which looks to be coming much lower.
Author:  Rolling Thunder [ Fri May 25, 2018 12:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 25-28 Predictions
Not an exciting story but noteworthy nonetheless - Book Club has a chance to have the best 2nd week MD hold in over a decade if the trajectory holds. Will be curious if it can hit $12m+ in the frame.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Fri May 25, 2018 1:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 25-28 Predictions
Rolling Thunder wrote:
Not an exciting story but noteworthy nonetheless - Book Club has a chance to have the best 2nd week MD hold in over a decade if the trajectory holds. Will be curious if it can hit $12m+ in the frame.


I wouldn't be surprised. There's not much else showing for people not interested in the big blockbusters and WOM is great. Plus the older demographic tends to not come out right away.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Fri May 25, 2018 3:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 25-28 Predictions
What's really impressive is Book Club being right behind Avengers in weekday numbers. Well, it was actually ahead on Wednesday and is not far behind on Thursday.
Author:  Rolling Thunder [ Fri May 25, 2018 3:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 25-28 Predictions
Magic Mike wrote:
What's really impressive is Book Club being right behind Avengers in weekday numbers. Well, it was actually ahead on Wednesday and is not far behind on Thursday.


It needs a very small Friday increase (50% or so) to drop less than 25% this weekend. Not even animated films have been able to accomplish that in the sophomore frame over MD weekend. This is a textbook example of well-marketed and effective counterprogramming.
Author:  SolC9 [ Fri May 25, 2018 4:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 25-28 Predictions
Rolling Thunder wrote:
Magic Mike wrote:
What's really impressive is Book Club being right behind Avengers in weekday numbers. Well, it was actually ahead on Wednesday and is not far behind on Thursday.


It needs a very small Friday increase (50% or so) to drop less than 25% this weekend. Not even animated films have been able to accomplish that in the sophomore frame over MD weekend. This is a textbook example of well-marketed and effective counterprogramming.


These types of films usually don't increase a lot on Friday, so I wouldn't expect it to increase that much necessarily. Even if it doesn't it's doing well.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Fri May 25, 2018 5:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 25-28 Predictions
Yeah Book Club is a weekday movie with older women supporting it. It won't do great over weekend because the demograph would be taking care of their families over the long weekend.
Author:  Algren [ Fri May 25, 2018 7:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 25-28 Predictions
Algren wrote:
$110m for Solo


So, looks like I win this. ;)
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Fri May 25, 2018 7:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 25-28 Predictions
That was 3-day you mentioned $130m 4-day. Its not going to open above $100m 3-day.

Algren wrote:
4-day will be $130m.
Author:  Algren [ Fri May 25, 2018 7:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 25-28 Predictions
I still win.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Fri May 25, 2018 10:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 25-28 Predictions
You joined the sub-$100m club so you also lose :P
Author:  Algren [ Fri May 25, 2018 11:49 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 25-28 Predictions
It can still gross sub-$100m, and I win both.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sat May 26, 2018 12:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: May 25-28 Predictions
Then you lose this one :P
Author:  Algren [ Sat May 26, 2018 12:49 am ]
Post subject:  Re: May 25-28 Predictions
Nah, because I'll be closest.
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