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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36917
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Re: May 25-28 Predictions
The pre-sales are MUCH bigger this far out for a movie to breakout and I don't think this is the kind of movie that will have HUGE walk-up business like MCU to compensate for lack of HUGE OD (previews will be BIG for sure). I mean its Wednesday and Solo is still behind DP2 at MT (36.7% vs 32.8%) and the later opened to $125m, I don't see how Solo out-opens that opening.
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Thu May 24, 2018 2:18 am |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Re: May 25-28 Predictions
Solo's 7-9pm shows tonight are sold-out or mostly full, as expected. However, most of the shows after 9pm have plenty of seats available here. You can sit anywhere you want after 10pm. Not typical for a SW film.
_________________ Making Predictions Great Again!
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Thu May 24, 2018 8:36 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67000
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Re: May 25-28 Predictions
Solo gives me a family entertainment type of Star Wars vibe, not a Revenge of the Sith must-rush-out-see-it-five-times-on-opening-day vibe. If the two were bodily gestures, Solo would be a shrug of the shoulders, while Revenge of the Sith was throbbing penis about to explode.
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Thu May 24, 2018 8:42 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36917
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Re: May 25-28 Predictions
I thought with those early presales numbers at the least the previews would be HUGE.
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Thu May 24, 2018 11:04 am |
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i.hope
Defeats all expectations
Joined: Fri May 26, 2006 5:04 pm Posts: 6665
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Re: May 25-28 Predictions
Thinking $110-120m 4-day for Solo.
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Thu May 24, 2018 11:21 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36917
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Re: May 25-28 Predictions
That would be lower than DP's 3-day. The meltdowns will be epic.
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Thu May 24, 2018 12:37 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20302 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: May 25-28 Predictions
Sub 20m previews for Solo most likely. I’m thinking 19m.
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Thu May 24, 2018 9:02 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36917
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Re: May 25-28 Predictions
Haha no one dared to predict previews which looks to be coming much lower.
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Thu May 24, 2018 9:48 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Re: May 25-28 Predictions
Not an exciting story but noteworthy nonetheless - Book Club has a chance to have the best 2nd week MD hold in over a decade if the trajectory holds. Will be curious if it can hit $12m+ in the frame.
_________________ Making Predictions Great Again!
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Fri May 25, 2018 12:11 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34875 Location: Minnesota
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Re: May 25-28 Predictions
Rolling Thunder wrote: Not an exciting story but noteworthy nonetheless - Book Club has a chance to have the best 2nd week MD hold in over a decade if the trajectory holds. Will be curious if it can hit $12m+ in the frame. I wouldn't be surprised. There's not much else showing for people not interested in the big blockbusters and WOM is great. Plus the older demographic tends to not come out right away.
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Fri May 25, 2018 1:29 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34875 Location: Minnesota
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Re: May 25-28 Predictions
What's really impressive is Book Club being right behind Avengers in weekday numbers. Well, it was actually ahead on Wednesday and is not far behind on Thursday.
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Fri May 25, 2018 3:19 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Re: May 25-28 Predictions
Magic Mike wrote: What's really impressive is Book Club being right behind Avengers in weekday numbers. Well, it was actually ahead on Wednesday and is not far behind on Thursday. It needs a very small Friday increase (50% or so) to drop less than 25% this weekend. Not even animated films have been able to accomplish that in the sophomore frame over MD weekend. This is a textbook example of well-marketed and effective counterprogramming.
_________________ Making Predictions Great Again!
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Fri May 25, 2018 3:35 pm |
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SolC9
Forum General
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:11 pm Posts: 7172 Location: Wisconsin
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Re: May 25-28 Predictions
Rolling Thunder wrote: Magic Mike wrote: What's really impressive is Book Club being right behind Avengers in weekday numbers. Well, it was actually ahead on Wednesday and is not far behind on Thursday. It needs a very small Friday increase (50% or so) to drop less than 25% this weekend. Not even animated films have been able to accomplish that in the sophomore frame over MD weekend. This is a textbook example of well-marketed and effective counterprogramming. These types of films usually don't increase a lot on Friday, so I wouldn't expect it to increase that much necessarily. Even if it doesn't it's doing well.
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Fri May 25, 2018 4:30 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36917
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Re: May 25-28 Predictions
Yeah Book Club is a weekday movie with older women supporting it. It won't do great over weekend because the demograph would be taking care of their families over the long weekend.
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Fri May 25, 2018 5:50 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67000
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Re: May 25-28 Predictions
Algren wrote: $110m for Solo So, looks like I win this.
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Fri May 25, 2018 7:40 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36917
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Re: May 25-28 Predictions
That was 3-day you mentioned $130m 4-day. Its not going to open above $100m 3-day. Algren wrote: 4-day will be $130m.
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Fri May 25, 2018 7:42 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67000
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Re: May 25-28 Predictions
I still win.
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Fri May 25, 2018 7:53 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36917
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Re: May 25-28 Predictions
You joined the sub-$100m club so you also lose
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Fri May 25, 2018 10:50 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67000
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Re: May 25-28 Predictions
It can still gross sub-$100m, and I win both.
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Fri May 25, 2018 11:49 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36917
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Re: May 25-28 Predictions
Then you lose this one
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Sat May 26, 2018 12:39 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67000
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Re: May 25-28 Predictions
Nah, because I'll be closest.
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Sat May 26, 2018 12:49 am |
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