Book Club- 16
Deadpool 2- 146
Show Dogs- 6

Deadpool 2 - 151m
Book Club - 15m
Show Dogs - 5m

Deadpool 2 - 165m

No idea how show dogs would perform. What is there count on that one?

Edit: So BOM says 3000 and that's even more baffling. It will get one of the worst openings for super wide release.

Book Club will overperform.

Deadpool will hold a lot better than I expected a few weeks ago. Marketing has been steller.

Show Dogs could benefit from Deadpool spillover from people that can't get into an R rated movie.

Best comparison for Show Dogs seems like it would be Nine Lives which opened to 6m.

There is a lot of competition for female audience. I don't think book club will overperform. It's also facing DP2 which has good female appeal IMO.

Show Dogs looks like an abomination. But there's been a real lack of kids movies which should benefit it. Still, it looks so bad I don't know who would want to see it.

Deadpool 2 - 145
Book Club - 11
Show Dogs - 8

Why the high predictions for Book Club? Looks like a Lifetime movie.

This feels like the real start to summer. Infinity War was its own season.

Book a Club reminds me of Last Vegas but with women. So a mid teens opening is realistic.

What are you predicting for it? I don't with the competition it will do very well but it should get past double digits.

Deadpool 2 - 140m
Book Club - 14m
Show Dogs - 9m

Book Club trailer always gets a good reaction and it's an underserved demographic as far as mainstream wide releases. Should definitely do well.

I feel like Snow Dogs would flop badly like $2m-$4m OW but I don't know why people are going so high on it. Maybe a high theater count will help but I feel families already had their share of fun with Avengers and then JW and Solo coming up would give them plenty of opportunities to see a family friendly "live" action movie.

The Deadpool reviews are pretty good. I really regret going low on it in the summer game. Was thinking $120 / $285m. Now I’d be surprised if it dips under $150m. The opening day will be huge, maybe $70m.

The reviews are decent, but it does not have the buzz and momentum of the first, right? I don't see anyone talking about it like I did back in 2016. Reviews ain't buying tickets! I think it could disappoint a little bit.

I am hoping DP2 surprises and opens bigger than the first. Good reviews can only help here, specially when it attracts adults who would see reviews before buying tickets.

Deadpool ain't targeting adults that read reviews before attending. It's targeting 18-30s. Not silver screeners. Those same 18-30s that loved the first. So reviews ain't gonna matter one bit. But buzz will.

Its not like there is no buzz plus its not like 18-30s don't care about reviews otherwise JL would have opened above WW easily. Good reviews will only help as they will help generate buzz as well as tickets.

Sitting in China, it's hard to gauge buzz in the US. Maybe I should move to Singapore, which seems to be the perfect vantage point to peer into US society.

Your comparison of JL/WW is full of problems. Justice League targeted older than Deadpool. Deadpool is a relatively new, hip, meta superhero. Justice League has been around for 50 years, and targets older moviegoers as well as youngsters. Plus, JL's opening was not just affected by reviews, but also BvS and it looked shit. WW, on the other hand, was inflated not just because of reviews, but because of the female movement at the time.

And I didn't say there was no buzz for Deadpool 2. I asked a question, because from where I am I just don't see it.

I think people just enjoy the character and will wanna go on another ride. I see just as many Deadpool shirts as Spider-Man shirts these days. And the target demo is a wider range than you think. More in the 14-50 range, including the girls that drove the original to such high numbers on Valentine’s Day, and everyone who likes to be a bit naughty. But if reviews were weak, they could wait until it comes out on HBO.

My orginal lower prediction was based on TDS saying the movie was bad for the last year. And I figured people would be burnt out from Thanos. But since neither has come to be true, there’s little stopping Deadpool from a monster opening.

Do we think AIW will suffer a big blow even though Deadpool is rated 'R'? It's going to absorb a lot of the same audience.