Breaking In- 19
Life of the Party- 16

Avengers- -45%

Melissa McCarthy will continue to bleed. I don't see this doing any better than I Feel Pretty.

3 weeks straight IW will have to itself. Definitely will help it beat BP domestic gross.

Too early for next weekend's thread ?

Mothers' Day is going to help both these movies BIG time specially since its on Sunday. Snatched looked crap but almost did $20m due to the holiday. Both these movies look slightly better though I think Breaking In resonates more with the holiday theme.

Breaking In - $30m
Life of the Party - $23m

Avengers - (-47%)

The poll is such a no brainer this week. Both will.

Yep both movies should break $20m mark. The better question is will both break $25m mark?

There are more fat white women in the US than black people, so I'll go with Life of the Party for $19m and Breaking In for 16m.

fact based predictions

Breaking In seemed like a no-brainer crossover hit from the trailer. But the marketing hasn’t tried to expand at all.

Breaking In - 24
Life of the Party - 20

Avengers- -50%

Breaking In- 15m (This will not out open Acrimony) Gabrielle Union's leading roles have all been with ensemble casts

Ranked GU Opening weekends

1.Think Like a Man- $33,636,303 (Kevin Hart, Taraji P. Henson)
2.Think Like a Man Too- $29,241,911 (Kevin Hart, Taraji P. Henson)
3.Almost Christmas- $15,134,235 (Mo’Nique, Danny Glover, Kimberly Elise)
4.Daddy's Little Girls- $11,210,754 (Idris Elba)
5.Top Five- $6,896,593 (Chris Rock)
6.Deliver Us From Eva- $6,648,374 (LL Cool J)
7.The Honeymooners- $5,538,835 (Cedric the Entertainer, Mike Epps)
8.The Perfect Holiday- $2,283,360 (Queen Latifah, Terrence Howard, Katt Williams)
9.Constellation- $215,801
10.In Our Nature- $4,378

It will out open Acrimony because of the Mother’s Day boost if nothing else.

As for Gabrielle Union being a draw, what major hits did Sanna Lathan headline prior to The Perfect Guy opening to 25 million? I don’t think these sorts of film need major star power. Union is a household name within the target audience and that’s about all you need here.

Yeah it's the concept and release date that will drive Breaking In.

Black movies needed star powers to open big ?

Looks to be a strong Mother Day's weekend. Both openers will break $20m, with Life of the Party having the edge to crack $25m, I think.

Yeah? Look at Tyler Perry.

Both will

And....

He is not a big name outside of Madea movies and two of the biggest openers of the series were the first two movies where he was relatively unknown.

BINGO

Perfect Guy's draw was Micheal Ealy who was at the time the "It/In" Black male lead for the community outside of Idris Elba for romantic comedies or dramas.

The only thing that may drive it over 20 is the Will Packer factor as his directed movies have averaged about $25m OW

That is quite a reach lol. Michael Ealy has never been a box office draw.

You obviously aren't in tune with the "community" as in minorities. This will not have much crossover appeal despite the Mother's Day Tie in. Hasn't shown up at all for pre-sales and the first projections are for between 13-15m

From the Breaking In $100m thread:

Snatched last year was poorer in tracking and projections. I am not worried yet for Breaking In. Its not going to be a pre-sale heavy movie either.

1. AVENGERS: INFINITY WARS - 61.978 MILLION (-46%)
2. LIFE OF THE PARTY - 26.294 MILLION (New)
3. BREAKING IN - 24.844 MILLION (New)
4. OVERBOARD - 11 MILLION (-25%)
5. A QUIET PLACE - 5.667 MILLION (-27%)
6. I FEEL PRETTY - 3.838 MILLION (-24%)
7. RAMPAGE - 3.478 MILLION (-25%)
8. TULLY - 2.5 MILLION (-23.8%)
9. BLACK PANTHER - 1.985 MILLION (-39%)
10. BLOCKERS - 1.295 MILLION (-26%)
11. TRUTH OR DARE - 1.227 MILLION (-35%)
12. SUPER TROOPERS 2 - $916,938 (-51%)
13. RBG - $900,000 ($6,000 Theater Average)
14. READY PLAYER ONE - $877,828 (-34%)
15. BAD SAMARITAN - $759,821 (-56%)

Yeah, Breaking In is the kind of film that is historically under-tracked. Will be surprised if it only opens to $15m.