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The Dark Shape
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:56 am Posts: 12119 Location: Adrift in L.A.
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Re: Has Marvel Dethroned Star Wars as the Box Office Champ?
Mannyisthebest wrote: Lol Chippy, TFA, TLJ and RO are the high water mark for the SW brand overseas and the trend is now going to go down down down... The Force Awakens - $1.1 billion Rogue One - $523 million The Last Jedi - $712 million That's not "down down down", especially when the competition we're talking about trends up or down based on the sub-brand. Avengers: Age of Ultron - $946 million Ant-Man - $339 million Captain America: Civil War - $745 million Doctor Strange - $445 million Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 - $473 million The two major differences between Star Wars and Marvel overseas are China and the potential to cross over franchises for extra hype. So while I do think Marvel is more important outside the United States, it isn't nearly as clear-cut as Star Wars going "down down down" and Marvel going "up up up."
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Tue May 08, 2018 12:04 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Has Marvel Dethroned Star Wars as the Box Office Champ?
Marvel movies are increasing but I wouldn't consider them going up always from their universe's immediate sequel (like Ant-Man 2 from IW). For SW I don't think the franchise hasn't yet stabilized from the initial high of TFA once it does they will routinely do those $350m+ OS numbers.
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Tue May 08, 2018 1:26 am |
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Mannyisthebest
Forum General
Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 3:53 pm Posts: 8636 Location: Toronto, Canada
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Re: Has Marvel Dethroned Star Wars as the Box Office Champ?
RO was boosted by TFA hype and fell by 50%, TLJ fell by over 30% and flopped in many growing markets. The trendline for SW overseas is a decline, not growth.
The issue is Solo will likely make less than Doctor Strange overseas and this will be the case for many non-Skywalker Saga films. Even a film like RO that tied heavily to the Skywalker Saga did around 500 overseas below your typical Marvel fare like Homecoming and Thor 3.
So it is true that TFA was a massive global hit but that was the high water mark but in comparison 5 MCU films IM3, CW, Ultron, Avengers and now IW made more money then TLJ overseas, and a uncertainty if Episode 9 will grow much from it or likely decline.
_________________The Dark Prince
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Tue May 08, 2018 8:34 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Has Marvel Dethroned Star Wars as the Box Office Champ?
The thing is that SW movies could easily settle down at $500m OS with the strength of non-growing markets and that's not an easy mark yet for all MCU movies. We'll have to wait for a few more installments from SW to gauge the trend.
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Tue May 08, 2018 8:44 am |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm Posts: 63026 Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: Has Marvel Dethroned Star Wars as the Box Office Champ?
Manny, I know you got banned from Theory for trolling about TLJ, but please don't do it here.
You can't say TLJ "declined" WW when it increased over Rogue One. Nobody expected it to increase over the BIGGEST GROSSER OF ALL TIME. Of course it was going to decline in comparison to TFA. But then every Marvel film has declined in comparison to Ultron... except IW now.
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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Tue May 08, 2018 11:21 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67041
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Re: Has Marvel Dethroned Star Wars as the Box Office Champ?
Manny, feel free to troll here as much as you like. The more you do it, the more likely it is that they'll make you a mod.
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Tue May 08, 2018 12:05 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32102 Location: the last free city
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Re: Has Marvel Dethroned Star Wars as the Box Office Champ?
Algren wrote: Manny, feel free to troll here as much as you like. The more you do it, the more likely it is that they'll make you a mod. No & no!
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
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Tue May 08, 2018 12:15 pm |
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Mannyisthebest
Forum General
Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 3:53 pm Posts: 8636 Location: Toronto, Canada
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Re: Has Marvel Dethroned Star Wars as the Box Office Champ?
It is trolling to you because you do not want to get your head out of the sand and see the trends.
TLJ WW performance went lower than most conservative expectations and it also performed rather badly in many developing markets with poor legs and WOM. It did well in developed markets, but that is where SW cannot really grow much more or if at all.
My point which you guys do not get is that SW makes a lot of money WW, but the trendline is not growth and we shall see that with Solo which will go below all the recent MCU films.
_________________The Dark Prince
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Tue May 08, 2018 12:29 pm |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm Posts: 63026 Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: Has Marvel Dethroned Star Wars as the Box Office Champ?
Yes, Manny. The 25th best Overseas performance of all time was "bad".
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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Tue May 08, 2018 12:52 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6139 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: Has Marvel Dethroned Star Wars as the Box Office Champ?
Mannyisthebest wrote: RO was boosted by TFA hype and fell by 50%, TLJ fell by over 30% and flopped in many growing markets. The trendline for SW overseas is a decline, not growth.
The issue is Solo will likely make less than Doctor Strange overseas and this will be the case for many non-Skywalker Saga films. Even a film like RO that tied heavily to the Skywalker Saga did around 500 overseas below your typical Marvel fare like Homecoming and Thor 3.
So it is true that TFA was a massive global hit but that was the high water mark but in comparison 5 MCU films IM3, CW, Ultron, Avengers and now IW made more money then TLJ overseas, and a uncertainty if Episode 9 will grow much from it or likely decline. That's not surprising though, Spider-Man has always been more global than Star Wars. Spider-Man 2002 destroyed Attack of the Clones, Spider-Man 3 destroyed Revenge of the Sith.
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Tue May 08, 2018 1:08 pm |
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Mannyisthebest
Forum General
Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 3:53 pm Posts: 8636 Location: Toronto, Canada
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Re: Has Marvel Dethroned Star Wars as the Box Office Champ?
No TLJ was not bad but I think its rather clear that MCU is now a bigger brand Globally now.
_________________The Dark Prince
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Tue May 08, 2018 1:50 pm |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm Posts: 63026 Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: Has Marvel Dethroned Star Wars as the Box Office Champ?
Mannyisthebest wrote: No TLJ was not bad but I think its rather clear that MCU is now a bigger brand Globally now. Yet all the numbers disagree with you.
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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Tue May 08, 2018 2:33 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6139 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: Has Marvel Dethroned Star Wars as the Box Office Champ?
Lol Civil War made more OS than Last Jedi. Internationally, the numbers indicate that Marvel is now bigger. It doesn't matter if the B-list characters don't make as much. The flagship multi-character Marvel films are more popular than any of the Star Wars films at this point.
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Tue May 08, 2018 3:16 pm |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm Posts: 63026 Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: Has Marvel Dethroned Star Wars as the Box Office Champ?
tl:dr
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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Tue May 08, 2018 5:13 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6139 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: Has Marvel Dethroned Star Wars as the Box Office Champ?
Quote: The Last Jedi is where things become even trickier: it experienced severe backlash, without which it would’ve still no doubt decreased from TFA, but with a reception as good or better than TFA it’s highly probable it would’ve beaten Avatar’s non-inflated total. But, you’re only as good as your last dance, and even though there’s still a sense of Star Wars having bigger market potential, the plain truth is they fucked it up more than Marvel did with Ultron a few years ago. It’s reasonable to expect that they’ll bounce back with the third instalment however. No they won't. Unlike Marvel, which is actively building its mythology and iconic characters in the minds of moviegoers right now, the selling point for the new Star Wars films was seeing the original trio again. Now they're all gone. No1cares about Rey, Kylo Ren and Finn. They're all non events. Star Wars has maxed out its potential at this point because it was all dependent on nostalgia for 1977-1983. They literally killed what made people nostalgic. Now they have a big universe, meh new characters that some people like, and a big brand name, but they don't have the mega selling point of Han/Leia/Luke anymore. It's time for diminishing returns. Chewbacca, the Falcon, force ghosts, etc and 2 minutes of CGI Carrie Fisher in Episode IX will not prevent the downward trend. It was the same with the prequels, what made Sith bounce back was that the advertising made it very clear we would finally see DARTH VADER. There's no card like that they can pull with Episode IX. Considering the feminist all-women writers room that came up with the stories for the new Star Wars films, they probably wanted to keep Leia alive after killing off Luke and Han, but unfortunately they forgot to take Carrie to rehab so they shot themselves in the foot. Leia with a lightsaber would have been a mega selling point for IX.
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Tue May 08, 2018 5:32 pm |
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Price
Gamaur's sex slave
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2005 7:15 pm Posts: 8889 Location: Los Pollos Hermanos
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Re: Has Marvel Dethroned Star Wars as the Box Office Champ?
What? Chippy's back? Again?
Damn, he really is like genital herpes. It never really goes away.
And to answer the thread question. I would say not yet, but it's getting there very quickly. If Solo gets beaten by Ant-Man /Wasp worldwide then IW2 will have no problem crushing episode IX.
Although to be fair, it's a little bit of an apples vs oranges comparison when taking into consideration the amount of movies per brand released, the time between releases and some other factors.
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Wed May 09, 2018 7:05 am |
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Omni
The Antichrist
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:04 am Posts: 1742 Location: Calisota
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Re: Has Marvel Dethroned Star Wars as the Box Office Champ?
Barrabás wrote: Lol Civil War made more OS than Last Jedi. Internationally, the numbers indicate that Marvel is now bigger. It doesn't matter if the B-list characters don't make as much. The flagship multi-character Marvel films are more popular than any of the Star Wars films at this point. Precisely. Unfortunately for SW, the brand remains very strong in the old markets (Europe, Australia, Japan - which are NOT growing at all) but it failed to connect in the emerging ones, sometimes in a pretty miserable way. In South Korea, Last Jedi was the 54th (!!!!) release of 2017 in terms of gross, it even got beaten by...Happy Death Day. Similar situation in China. In the Philippines the damage was limited, but the movie was still beaten by a considerable margin by all MCU films. In Brazil it was 15th for the year (hardly a huggernaut), again behind every MCU movie. In Mexico...21th. What's even more alarming is that these (and other) markets seem to have embraced SW7 only because of ots phenomenon status, but then they often rejected it (in China TLJ dropped by almost 50% from TFA, in South Korea by an incredible 67%). Ultron increased over Avengers when adding China, and even in local currencies once you remove China from the equation, while TLJ lost a good 37% of its audience (keep in mind that while a 35% drop from the original is normal in the US, OS brands tend to follow a different trend). Anyone thinks SW9 could even come close to IW's OS total? Unless Solo somehow reverse the trend, this OS comparison is a no brainer for anyone who's got a brain.
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Wed May 09, 2018 2:56 pm |
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The Dark Shape
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:56 am Posts: 12119 Location: Adrift in L.A.
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Re: Has Marvel Dethroned Star Wars as the Box Office Champ?
Is this a surprise? The Marvel movies grew. Most of these emerging markets don't have easy access to the Original Trilogy, which makes the new movies hard to follow even without considering the weird sequel-prequel-sequel-prequel rhythm.
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Wed May 09, 2018 3:48 pm |
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Mannyisthebest
Forum General
Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 3:53 pm Posts: 8636 Location: Toronto, Canada
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Re: Has Marvel Dethroned Star Wars as the Box Office Champ?
SW is still the champ domestically but that is based on the past and the iconic status of the film in pop culture.
I am not sure it holds for the future when TWO MCU films beat it in less than 5 months and it is uncertain if Episode 9 can increase from Episode 8. However, on a film avg basis, SW is unbeatable likely domestically to other franchises.
The issue is of the future and not of the past I think.
_________________The Dark Prince
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Wed May 09, 2018 5:54 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 21890 Location: Places
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Re: Has Marvel Dethroned Star Wars as the Box Office Champ?
Episode 9 will not increase form 8 if Luke is not in it. If it is just Rey and red, no way.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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Thu May 10, 2018 10:38 am |
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Darth Indiana Bond
007
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:43 pm Posts: 11008 Location: Wouldn't you like to know
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Re: Has Marvel Dethroned Star Wars as the Box Office Champ?
Marvel is putting Star Wars on the ropes, but Star Wars still holds the belt! How long will Star Wars be able to last before Marvel claims the crown?
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Thu May 10, 2018 10:57 am |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm Posts: 63026 Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: Has Marvel Dethroned Star Wars as the Box Office Champ?
Darth Indiana Bond wrote: Marvel is putting Star Wars on the ropes, but Star Wars still holds the belt! How long will Star Wars be able to last before Marvel claims the crown? This is the correct post. If Ant-Man were to beat Solo, and Ep 9 loses to IW2, I'd say this thread it right. But as of now, it's not.
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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Thu May 10, 2018 11:23 am |
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Darth Indiana Bond
007
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:43 pm Posts: 11008 Location: Wouldn't you like to know
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Re: Has Marvel Dethroned Star Wars as the Box Office Champ?
Meanwhile Disney profits
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Thu May 10, 2018 12:13 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Has Marvel Dethroned Star Wars as the Box Office Champ?
Ant-Man is expected to beat Solo in which universe? I think the expectations have to be in-check. We should compare Solo to something like Iron-Man's $406m adjusted numbers. Rogue One should most likely be compared to Guardians and that is a battle SW won handily.
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Wed May 16, 2018 10:18 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67041
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Re: Has Marvel Dethroned Star Wars as the Box Office Champ?
Nobody said Ant-Man is expected to beat Solo.
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Thu May 17, 2018 3:07 am |
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