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April 13-15 Predictions
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=84203		 Page 2 of 4
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Mon Apr 09, 2018 1:24 am ]
Post subject:  Re: April 13-15 Predictions
There is no way that AQP does more than $35m and that is the lowest I can see Rampage doing so AQP is not repeating #1.
Author:  Rolling Thunder [ Mon Apr 09, 2018 8:34 am ]
Post subject:  Re: April 13-15 Predictions
Rampage is opening to about $30m. Rock or not, it's a video game adaptation few asked for.
Author:  zwackerm [ Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:28 am ]
Post subject:  Re: April 13-15 Predictions
Jack Sparrow wrote:
There is no way that AQP does more than $35m and that is the lowest I can see Rampage doing so AQP is not repeating #1.


It could hold like Get Out possibly. Unlikely, but possibly.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Mon Apr 09, 2018 11:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: April 13-15 Predictions
zwackerm wrote:
Jack Sparrow wrote:
There is no way that AQP does more than $35m and that is the lowest I can see Rampage doing so AQP is not repeating #1.


It could hold like Get Out possibly. Unlikely, but possibly.


AQP also opened higher but yeah it could become a phenom like GO. Still I feel realistically Rampage is doing $45m OW.
Author:  i.hope [ Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: April 13-15 Predictions
Rolling Thunder wrote:
Rampage is opening to about $30m. Rock or not, it's a video game adaptation few asked for.


It is not being marketed as a video game movie. First and foremost, it is a monsters action movie starring The Rock with a humanized animal character. I think if WB plays up the friendship between The Rock and his animal friend George in advertising, this will do big.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Mon Apr 09, 2018 11:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: April 13-15 Predictions
Yeah I don't see any video-game vibes for Rampage as well. Its being sold as a monster movie similar to Universal's monster-verse concept carrying the star-power of Johnson.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Tue Apr 10, 2018 12:59 am ]
Post subject:  Re: April 13-15 Predictions
1. RAMPAGE - 42.4 MILLION (New)
2. A QUIET PLACE - 31.1 MILLION (-38%)
3. READY PLAYER ONE - 14.774 MILLION (-40%)
4. BLOCKERS - 13.567 MILLION (-34%)
5. TRUTH OR DARE - 13.2 MILLION (New)
6. I CAN ONLY IMAGINE - 5.772 MILLION (-26%)
7. BLACK PANTHER - 5.7 MILLION (-34.5%)
8. ISLE OF DOGS - 5.25 MILLION
9. ACRIMONY - 3.939 MILLION (-53%)
10. SHERLOCK GNOMES - 3.75 MILLION (-31%)
11. BEIRUT - 3.694 MILLION (3-Day)/4.633 MILLION (5-Day)
12. CHAPPAQUIDDICK - 3.055 MILLION (-47%)
13. SGT. STUBBY - 3 MILLION (New)
14. MIRACLE SEASON - 2.251 MILLION (-43%)
15. PACIFIC RIM: UPRISING - 2.17 MILLION (-55%)
16. A WRINKLE IN TIME - 1.981 MILLION (-40%)
17. LOVE, SIMON - 1.521 MILLION (-45%)
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:10 am ]
Post subject:  Re: April 13-15 Predictions
I am hoping that AQP has a sub-35% drop, maybe even sub-30% next week, it has Friday-the-13th to boost its weekend. I would love for it to reach $200m or atleast be bigger than GO :P
Author:  Magic Mike [ Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:14 am ]
Post subject:  Re: April 13-15 Predictions
Anything is possible. Truth or Dare will take a little bite into its audience. But I don't know who would want to go see that lame looking movie over an acclaimed film like A Quiet Place.

I'm seeing it again Tuesday and Wednesday. Going with a group Tuesday. Went to buy tickets today for Tuesday and the 7:30 was pretty much sold out except for a few single seats scattered around. Was able to get tickets for the 5:05 which is still really full and will sell out. This is on the super screen, which has better sound and a bigger screen. Best way to see this movie! :yes: Also seeing Blockers after.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:21 am ]
Post subject:  Re: April 13-15 Predictions
Given that the two movies are different in nature even though they are from the same sub-genre I think they can survive each other with the Friday boost. Truth or Dare is a VERY well known concept and while it looks bad I think the OD and OW will be big enough as it should attract casual audience. Would be a good weekend to see how big AQP's WoM truly is.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:24 am ]
Post subject:  Re: April 13-15 Predictions
Jack Sparrow wrote:
Given that the two movies are different in nature even though they are from the same sub-genre I think they can survive each other with the Friday boost. Truth or Dare is a VERY well known concept and while it looks bad I think the OD and OW will be big enough as it should attract casual audience. Would be a good weekend to see how big AQP's WoM truly is.


I think on a regular weekend without the competition ToD would do 20 Million or so. But it looks so bad that I can't see as many caring when they have a better option. I'm predicting a 6 Million Friday but it should drop 20% or more on Saturday and almost 50% on Sunday. Lucky for ToD though many will have already seen A Quiet Place and likely saw the trailer for it with that film. Whether or not anyone will have been impressed by it enough to go see it is beyond me. The Facebook likes are not great (around 55,000). Last week A Quiet Place had 200,000.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:29 am ]
Post subject:  Re: April 13-15 Predictions
Magic Mike wrote:
Anything is possible. Truth or Dare will take a little bite into its audience. But I don't know who would want to go see that lame looking movie over an acclaimed film like A Quiet Place.

I'm seeing it again Tuesday and Wednesday. Going with a group Tuesday. Went to buy tickets today for Tuesday and the 7:30 was pretty much sold out except for a few single seats scattered around. Was able to get tickets for the 5:05 which is still really full and will sell out. This is on the super screen, which has better sound and a bigger screen. Best way to see this movie! :yes: Also seeing Blockers after.


It is doing well here in Singapore as well but then horror movies generally do well here and this one has good WoM. The shows aren't sold out here but they are about 80% full which for the first week means the movie has good WoM and would become a blockbuster here.
Author:  Barrabás [ Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:48 am ]
Post subject:  Re: April 13-15 Predictions
Rampage: $28m

Audiences don't want to pay for the same thing twice. They JUST saw Jumanji.
Author:  MadGez [ Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:46 am ]
Post subject:  Re: April 13-15 Predictions
Rampage does look like a $28-$32m opener and I think that's where it will end up.

That said, if it attracts families which have been undeserved in the last couple of months - it could break out to mid $40s.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Tue Apr 10, 2018 3:33 am ]
Post subject:  Re: April 13-15 Predictions
If Rampage ends up with sub-$30m then AQP will win the weekend.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Tue Apr 10, 2018 3:37 am ]
Post subject:  Re: April 13-15 Predictions
I would love to see A Quiet Place repeat but I just don't see how Rampage could fail that badly.
Author:  nghtvsn [ Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:35 am ]
Post subject:  Re: April 13-15 Predictions
Rampage apparently is 35-37 right now. I think AQP has sucked out it's publicity
Author:  Dil [ Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:12 am ]
Post subject:  Re: April 13-15 Predictions
I also would love to see AQP be number 1 again this weekend, but unless Rampage goes sub $30M I don't really see it happening.
Author:  Rolling Thunder [ Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: April 13-15 Predictions
Was it intentional that both Friday the 13ths this year feature an opener with The Rock?
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: April 13-15 Predictions
nghtvsn wrote:
Rampage apparently is 35-37 right now. I think AQP has sucked out it's publicity


You mean tracking or studio projections? Because if its tracking than that's BAD. Studios are generally conservative these days.
Author:  MadGez [ Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: April 13-15 Predictions
Rampage was snookered by Avengers move to April which in turn pushed it closer to AQP.

Still, if it can do something like $35/$100m and loads more OS, it wouldn't be too bad.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: April 13-15 Predictions
Both Kong and San Andreas did $300m+ in OS markets so that will be its target but then its just two weeks before Avengers and in April. Might not have good enough legs to get past that mark.
Author:  MadGez [ Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: April 13-15 Predictions
Correct. In hindsight - perhaps March would have been better?
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: April 13-15 Predictions
Agreed. Rampage would have done well in August. I believe they wanted FF spot for it but then Avengers screwed it up.
Author:  emste26 [ Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: April 13-15 Predictions
Random question, but does anyone here play Fantasy Movie League? I'm surprised I've never seen in mentioned on these boards at all.
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