Register  |  Sign In
View unanswered posts | View active topics It is currently Thu Mar 28, 2024 11:23 am



Reply to topic  [ 249 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10  Next
 KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - FINAL RESULTS 
Author Message
Speed Racer
User avatar

Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 5:59 pm
Posts: 181
Location: Poland
Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jun
Star Lord lives!


Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:53 am
Profile WWW
The Kramer
User avatar

Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am
Posts: 23695
Location: Classified
Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jun
Algren wrote:
Flava'd plummeted!! :( BK too.
Deadpool’s better than expected legs are killing me!


Sun Jun 24, 2018 10:08 am
Profile
Keeping it Light
User avatar

Joined: Wed Apr 08, 2015 8:06 am
Posts: 11185
Location: Bright Falls
Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jun
Deadpool surprisingly easily went over $300m after all, hurting me too, but glad for it.
What a success those films are.


Sun Jun 24, 2018 11:15 am
Profile
Gamaur's sex slave
User avatar

Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2005 7:15 pm
Posts: 8889
Location: Los Pollos Hermanos
Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jun
Biggestgeekever and zwackerm have a very high chance of getting the 5 highest grossing movies right for the very first time.

Avengers, I2, JW2 and DP2 are all set. And I only see Ant-Man/Wasp or MI6 with a chance of surpassing Solo, but think that MI6 will fall short, so if Ant-Man/Wasp disappoints...

_________________
Image


Sun Jul 01, 2018 6:57 am
Profile
now we know
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 66999
Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jun
I don't think Fallout is in the equation. I think it's all down to whether Ant-Man and the Wasp can pass Solo or not. If not, two people got it right (wouldn't that be funny - nobody ever got it, then two come along at once).

I guess Solo will finish around $210-$215m. Not a very difficult milestone for an MCU film to reach. Only 5 out of 19 haven't. Only one was a sequel (Thor: The Dark World -- Ant-Man is more appreciated than Thor, isn't it?), but the last one NOT to reach it was Ant-Man. But all MCU films that opened in over 4,000 cinemas (as Ant-Man and the Wasp will) reached way beyond that point (lowest is Iron Man 2's $312m).

I'd say at this stage, it has an 80% chance of beating Solo.


Sun Jul 01, 2018 7:18 am
Profile WWW
Pure Phase
User avatar

Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am
Posts: 34865
Location: Maryland
Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jun
Ant-Man will top Solo. I see it at least matching Doctor Strange's 232m.

_________________
ImageImageImage

1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game


Sun Jul 01, 2018 1:02 pm
Profile
---------
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
Post 
Weekly Ranking for July 1

Image

Total Gross Projections
Avengers: Infinity War - $680 million
Book Club - $68 million
Breaking In - $46.5 million
Deadpool 2 - $320 million
Hereditary - $43.5 million
Incredibles 2 - $590 million
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - $400 million
Life of the Party - $53 million
Ocean's 8 - $132 million
Sicario: Day of the Soldado - $55 million
Solo: A Star Wars Story - $215 million
Tag - $53 million
Uncle Drew - $44 million

Current Top 5
1. Avengers: Infinity War - $672.5 million
2. Incredibles 2 - $439.7 million
3. Deadpool 2 - $310.3 million
4. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - $264.8 million
5. Solo: A Star Wars Story - $207.3 million

Current Answers to Box Office Questions
#1: Which will gross more in total - Avengers: Infinity War, the combination of Incredibles 2 and Mission: Impossible - Fallout, the combination of Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and Ant-Man and the Wasp?
  • Avengers: Infinity War (currently $672.5 million)

#2: Which will gross more in total - the combination of Deadpool 2 and Skyscraper, the combination of Solo: A Star Wars Story and Christopher Robin?
  • The combination of Deadpool 2 and Skyscraper (currently $310.3 million)

#4: Which sequel will fall the most from its predecessor (%-wise) - Deadpool 2, The First Purge, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, Incredibles 2, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, or Sicario 2: Soldado?
  • Sicario: Day of the Soldado (currently -59.5%)

#5: Which sequel will gross the closest to its predecessor (%-wise) - Deadpool 2, The First Purge, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, Incredibles 2, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, or Sicario 2: Soldado?
  • Deadpool 2 (currently -14.5%)

#6: What will be the highest grossing film to not hit #1 on any of its weekends?
  • Book Club (currently $66.1 million)

#7: What movie will lose the largest number of theaters in its 3rd weekend?
  • Hotel Artemis (-2,136 theaters)

#8: How many films will gross over $100 million?
  • Six (Avengers: Infinity War, Deadpool 2, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Incredibles 2, Ocean's 8, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom)

#9: How many films will gross over $200 million?
  • Five (Avengers: Infinity War, Deadpool 2, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom)

#10: What will be the highest grossing film not predicted in the total gross section (including the backup films)?
  • Adrift (currently $30.1 million)


Sun Jul 01, 2018 1:16 pm
Profile
---------
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jun
It will be fun next weekend when Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom passes Solo: A Star Wars Story, as we'll have a few weeks of weekly ranking updates where Biggestgeekever and zwackerm will *temporarily* have the 15-point bonus. :)


Sun Jul 01, 2018 1:17 pm
Profile
Hold the door!

Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm
Posts: 20302
Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jun
MGKC wrote:
It will be fun next weekend when Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom passes Solo: A Star Wars Story, as we'll have a few weeks of weekly ranking updates where Biggestgeekever and zwackerm will *temporarily* have the 15-point bonus. :)

You mean Deadpool 2?


Sun Jul 01, 2018 6:47 pm
Profile
---------
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jun
zwackerm wrote:
MGKC wrote:
It will be fun next weekend when Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom passes Solo: A Star Wars Story, as we'll have a few weeks of weekly ranking updates where Biggestgeekever and zwackerm will *temporarily* have the 15-point bonus. :)

You mean Deadpool 2?

Ah yep. :)


Sun Jul 01, 2018 7:08 pm
Profile
Deshi Basara
User avatar

Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2007 3:36 pm
Posts: 5322
Location: The Interstice
Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jul
I notice several instances where the # green doesn't match the number of points (if I'm correct that that's how it should work).

_________________
Top 10 Most Impressive Box Office Opening Weekends

Most Impressive Openings: Honorable Mentions


Mon Jul 02, 2018 11:22 am
Profile
---------
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jul
Proud Ryu wrote:
I notice several instances where the # green doesn't match the number of points (if I'm correct that that's how it should work).

Ah, that's due to Uncle Drew. I didn't copy over its points column correctly, so the visual display of it is not correct (though the total points earned is). I'll fix that tonight.


Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:46 pm
Profile
Forum General
User avatar

Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 8:30 am
Posts: 7041
Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jul
Gee, how the hell did something as shit looking as Uncle Drew make that much $ on OW?

Really doesn't make sense sometimes what movies tank and what movies do well.

_________________
Calls
Ghost Rider + Clash of the Titans = 2x Wrath of the Titans + Ghost Rider 2
Lorax over Despicable Me
Men in Black 3 Under 100m
Madagascar 3 Under 100m
Rise of the Guardians over 250m


Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:15 am
Profile WWW
---------
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
Post 
Weekly Ranking for July 8

Our first ever weekly ranking with someone getting the 15-point bonus for getting the *current* top 5 right! :thumbsup:

Image

Total Gross Projections
Ant-Man and the Wasp - $200 million
Avengers: Infinity War - $678 million
Book Club - $68.3 million
Breaking In - $46.5 million
Deadpool 2 - $318 million
The First Purge - $58 million
Hereditary - $43.5 million
Incredibles 2 - $585 million
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - $380 million
Life of the Party - $53 million
Ocean's 8 - $138 million
Sicario: Day of the Soldado - $44 million
Solo: A Star Wars Story - $215 million
Tag - $53 million
Uncle Drew - $41 million

Current Top 5
1. Avengers: Infinity War - $674.9 million
2. Incredibles 2 - $503.8 million
3. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - $333.4 million
4. Deadpool 2 - $314.5 million
5. Solo: A Star Wars Story - $210.9 million

Current Answers to Box Office Questions
#1: Which will gross more in total - Avengers: Infinity War, the combination of Incredibles 2 and Mission: Impossible - Fallout, the combination of Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and Ant-Man and the Wasp?
  • Avengers: Infinity War (currently $674.9 million)

#2: Which will gross more in total - the combination of Deadpool 2 and Skyscraper, the combination of Solo: A Star Wars Story and Christopher Robin?
  • The combination of Deadpool 2 and Skyscraper (currently $314.5 million)

#4: Which sequel will fall the most from its predecessor (%-wise) - Deadpool 2, The First Purge, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, Incredibles 2, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, or Sicario 2: Soldado?
  • The First Purge (currently -60.8%)

#5: Which sequel will gross the closest to its predecessor (%-wise) - Deadpool 2, The First Purge, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, Incredibles 2, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, or Sicario 2: Soldado?
  • Deadpool 2 (currently -13.4%)

#6: What will be the highest grossing film to not hit #1 on any of its weekends?
  • Book Club (currently $67.2 million)

#7: What movie will lose the largest number of theaters in its 3rd weekend?
  • Hotel Artemis (-2,136 theaters)

#8: How many films will gross over $100 million?
  • Six (Avengers: Infinity War, Deadpool 2, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Incredibles 2, Ocean's 8, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom)

#9: How many films will gross over $200 million?
  • Five (Avengers: Infinity War, Deadpool 2, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom)

#10: What will be the highest grossing film not predicted in the total gross section (including the backup films)?
  • Adrift (currently $30.8 million)


Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:01 pm
Profile
Hold the door!

Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm
Posts: 20302
Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jul
It will be very close between Solo and Ant-Man. Hopefully it ends behind Solo.


Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:27 pm
Profile
Keeping it Light
User avatar

Joined: Wed Apr 08, 2015 8:06 am
Posts: 11185
Location: Bright Falls
Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jul
I don't exactly know how it's counted, but I don't think my 8? points are right.


Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:01 pm
Profile
Romosexual!
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am
Posts: 32083
Location: the last free city
Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jul
Enjoyed 1st place while it lasted :lol:

_________________
Is it 2024 yet?


Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:46 pm
Profile
now we know
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 66999
Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jul
Wow. Go zwack!!


Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:50 pm
Profile WWW
Deshi Basara
User avatar

Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2007 3:36 pm
Posts: 5322
Location: The Interstice
Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jul
Wow, I only just noticed the theater loss for Hotel Artemis took over and despite 16 different films predicted that one wasn't. Crazy.

_________________
Top 10 Most Impressive Box Office Opening Weekends

Most Impressive Openings: Honorable Mentions


Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:54 am
Profile
Deshi Basara
User avatar

Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2007 3:36 pm
Posts: 5322
Location: The Interstice
Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jul
It seems like 15 point bonus for correct top 5 is way too much, on top of the points you already get for placing them correctly. It's almost a guaranteed win. It's too much of a reward for just getting order right, when someone else could maybe have just switched 2 films (which might be very close in box office) but loses a 15 point swing as a result.

_________________
Top 10 Most Impressive Box Office Opening Weekends

Most Impressive Openings: Honorable Mentions


Wed Jul 11, 2018 10:19 am
Profile
---------
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jul
Proud Ryu wrote:
It seems like 15 point bonus for correct top 5 is way too much, on top of the points you already get for placing them correctly. It's almost a guaranteed win. It's too much of a reward for just getting order right, when someone else could maybe have just switched 2 films (which might be very close in box office) but loses a 15 point swing as a result.

Since no one has ever received the bonus before in the history of the game, I think the 15 point bonus is deserved and should help guarantee a win.

However, I will likely change it for future games IF the bonus ends up being awarded in this game. Probably a system where you get 1 point per movie in your top 5 that ends up somewhere in the actual top 5, and then an additional point per movie where its rank was predicted correctly. I think that's a bit more balanced.


Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:35 pm
Profile
Deshi Basara
User avatar

Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2007 3:36 pm
Posts: 5322
Location: The Interstice
Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jul
MGKC wrote:
Proud Ryu wrote:
It seems like 15 point bonus for correct top 5 is way too much, on top of the points you already get for placing them correctly. It's almost a guaranteed win. It's too much of a reward for just getting order right, when someone else could maybe have just switched 2 films (which might be very close in box office) but loses a 15 point swing as a result.

Since no one has ever received the bonus before in the history of the game, I think the 15 point bonus is deserved and should help guarantee a win.

However, I will likely change it for future games IF the bonus ends up being awarded in this game. Probably a system where you get 1 point per movie in your top 5 that ends up somewhere in the actual top 5, and then an additional point per movie where its rank was predicted correctly. I think that's a bit more balanced.


I would definitely be on board with that approach.

As it sits now about all that matters is whether Ant Man beats Solo.

_________________
Top 10 Most Impressive Box Office Opening Weekends

Most Impressive Openings: Honorable Mentions


Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:51 pm
Profile
---------
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jul
stuffp wrote:
I don't exactly know how it's counted, but I don't think my 8? points are right.

The box office questions points in my weekly ranks are always based on the current standings of the movies' grosses (not my projections for them).

You are currently getting points for:
#1: Which will gross more in total - Avengers: Infinity War, the combination of The Incredibles 2 and Mission: Impossible - Fallout, the combination of Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and Ant-Man and the Wasp?
#2: Which will gross more in total - the combination of Deadpool 2 and Skyscraper, the combination of Solo: A Star Wars Story and Christopher Robin?
#4: Which sequel will fall the most from its predecessor (%-wise) - Deadpool 2, The First Purge, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, The Incredibles 2, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, or Sicario 2: Soldado?
#9: How many films will gross over $200 million?

You can view the extended results here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing


Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:00 pm
Profile
now we know
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 66999
Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jul
Since nobody has ever predicted the top 5 correctly, it's obviously something that is difficult to get right, and so I think it's fine to be rewarded for that with a 15 point bonus.


Wed Jul 11, 2018 10:22 pm
Profile WWW
Deshi Basara
User avatar

Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2007 3:36 pm
Posts: 5322
Location: The Interstice
Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jul
Algren wrote:
Since nobody has ever predicted the top 5 correctly, it's obviously something that is difficult to get right, and so I think it's fine to be rewarded for that with a 15 point bonus.


It's still harder in general to predict a specific number in than a rank.

You could get the top 5 rank in theory with some luck without winning any of the individual movies, or you could get all the individual movie points without getting the bonus (all it takes is swapping 2 that are close) - both would be worth 15 points but getting the numbers right is the more impressive feat there.

So I think MGKC is more on the money with his recent suggestion. It's still a healthy bonus for getting the right order but can be realistically overcome by a very good predictor. A 5-movie swing would be a very tall order.

_________________
Top 10 Most Impressive Box Office Opening Weekends

Most Impressive Openings: Honorable Mentions


Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:57 am
Profile
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Reply to topic   [ 249 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10  Next

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 46 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
cron
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group.
Designed by STSoftware for PTF.