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Star Lord
Speed Racer
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 5:59 pm Posts: 181 Location: Poland
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Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jun
Star Lord lives!
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Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:53 am |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23775 Location: Classified
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Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jun
Algren wrote: Flava'd plummeted!! BK too. Deadpool’s better than expected legs are killing me!
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Sun Jun 24, 2018 10:08 am |
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stuffp
Keeping it Light
Joined: Wed Apr 08, 2015 8:06 am Posts: 11204 Location: Bright Falls
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Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jun
Deadpool surprisingly easily went over $300m after all, hurting me too, but glad for it. What a success those films are.
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Sun Jun 24, 2018 11:15 am |
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Price
Gamaur's sex slave
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2005 7:15 pm Posts: 8889 Location: Los Pollos Hermanos
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Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jun
Biggestgeekever and zwackerm have a very high chance of getting the 5 highest grossing movies right for the very first time.
Avengers, I2, JW2 and DP2 are all set. And I only see Ant-Man/Wasp or MI6 with a chance of surpassing Solo, but think that MI6 will fall short, so if Ant-Man/Wasp disappoints...
_________________
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Sun Jul 01, 2018 6:57 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67039
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Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jun
I don't think Fallout is in the equation. I think it's all down to whether Ant-Man and the Wasp can pass Solo or not. If not, two people got it right (wouldn't that be funny - nobody ever got it, then two come along at once).
I guess Solo will finish around $210-$215m. Not a very difficult milestone for an MCU film to reach. Only 5 out of 19 haven't. Only one was a sequel (Thor: The Dark World -- Ant-Man is more appreciated than Thor, isn't it?), but the last one NOT to reach it was Ant-Man. But all MCU films that opened in over 4,000 cinemas (as Ant-Man and the Wasp will) reached way beyond that point (lowest is Iron Man 2's $312m).
I'd say at this stage, it has an 80% chance of beating Solo.
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Sun Jul 01, 2018 7:18 am |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jun
Ant-Man will top Solo. I see it at least matching Doctor Strange's 232m.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Sun Jul 01, 2018 1:02 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm Posts: 11808 Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Weekly Ranking for July 1Total Gross ProjectionsAvengers: Infinity War - $680 million Book Club - $68 million Breaking In - $46.5 million Deadpool 2 - $320 million Hereditary - $43.5 million Incredibles 2 - $590 million Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - $400 million Life of the Party - $53 million Ocean's 8 - $132 million Sicario: Day of the Soldado - $55 million Solo: A Star Wars Story - $215 million Tag - $53 million Uncle Drew - $44 million Current Top 51. Avengers: Infinity War - $672.5 million 2. Incredibles 2 - $439.7 million 3. Deadpool 2 - $310.3 million 4. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - $264.8 million 5. Solo: A Star Wars Story - $207.3 million Current Answers to Box Office Questions#1: Which will gross more in total - Avengers: Infinity War, the combination of Incredibles 2 and Mission: Impossible - Fallout, the combination of Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and Ant-Man and the Wasp? - Avengers: Infinity War (currently $672.5 million)
#2: Which will gross more in total - the combination of Deadpool 2 and Skyscraper, the combination of Solo: A Star Wars Story and Christopher Robin? - The combination of Deadpool 2 and Skyscraper (currently $310.3 million)
#4: Which sequel will fall the most from its predecessor (%-wise) - Deadpool 2, The First Purge, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, Incredibles 2, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, or Sicario 2: Soldado? - Sicario: Day of the Soldado (currently -59.5%)
#5: Which sequel will gross the closest to its predecessor (%-wise) - Deadpool 2, The First Purge, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, Incredibles 2, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, or Sicario 2: Soldado? - Deadpool 2 (currently -14.5%)
#6: What will be the highest grossing film to not hit #1 on any of its weekends? - Book Club (currently $66.1 million)
#7: What movie will lose the largest number of theaters in its 3rd weekend? - Hotel Artemis (-2,136 theaters)
#8: How many films will gross over $100 million? - Six (Avengers: Infinity War, Deadpool 2, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Incredibles 2, Ocean's 8, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom)
#9: How many films will gross over $200 million? - Five (Avengers: Infinity War, Deadpool 2, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom)
#10: What will be the highest grossing film not predicted in the total gross section (including the backup films)? - Adrift (currently $30.1 million)
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Sun Jul 01, 2018 1:16 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm Posts: 11808 Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jun
It will be fun next weekend when Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom passes Solo: A Star Wars Story, as we'll have a few weeks of weekly ranking updates where Biggestgeekever and zwackerm will *temporarily* have the 15-point bonus.
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Sun Jul 01, 2018 1:17 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20344 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jun
MGKC wrote: It will be fun next weekend when Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom passes Solo: A Star Wars Story, as we'll have a few weeks of weekly ranking updates where Biggestgeekever and zwackerm will *temporarily* have the 15-point bonus. You mean Deadpool 2?
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Sun Jul 01, 2018 6:47 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm Posts: 11808 Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jun
zwackerm wrote: MGKC wrote: It will be fun next weekend when Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom passes Solo: A Star Wars Story, as we'll have a few weeks of weekly ranking updates where Biggestgeekever and zwackerm will *temporarily* have the 15-point bonus. You mean Deadpool 2? Ah yep.
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Sun Jul 01, 2018 7:08 pm |
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Proud Ryu
Deshi Basara
Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2007 3:36 pm Posts: 5322 Location: The Interstice
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Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jul
I notice several instances where the # green doesn't match the number of points (if I'm correct that that's how it should work).
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Mon Jul 02, 2018 11:22 am |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm Posts: 11808 Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jul
Proud Ryu wrote: I notice several instances where the # green doesn't match the number of points (if I'm correct that that's how it should work). Ah, that's due to Uncle Drew. I didn't copy over its points column correctly, so the visual display of it is not correct (though the total points earned is). I'll fix that tonight.
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Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:46 pm |
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BK
Forum General
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 8:30 am Posts: 7041
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Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jul
Gee, how the hell did something as shit looking as Uncle Drew make that much $ on OW?
Really doesn't make sense sometimes what movies tank and what movies do well.
_________________ Calls Ghost Rider + Clash of the Titans = 2x Wrath of the Titans + Ghost Rider 2 Lorax over Despicable Me Men in Black 3 Under 100m Madagascar 3 Under 100m Rise of the Guardians over 250m
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Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:15 am |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm Posts: 11808 Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Weekly Ranking for July 8Our first ever weekly ranking with someone getting the 15-point bonus for getting the *current* top 5 right! Total Gross ProjectionsAnt-Man and the Wasp - $200 million Avengers: Infinity War - $678 million Book Club - $68.3 million Breaking In - $46.5 million Deadpool 2 - $318 million The First Purge - $58 million Hereditary - $43.5 million Incredibles 2 - $585 million Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - $380 million Life of the Party - $53 million Ocean's 8 - $138 million Sicario: Day of the Soldado - $44 million Solo: A Star Wars Story - $215 million Tag - $53 million Uncle Drew - $41 million Current Top 51. Avengers: Infinity War - $674.9 million 2. Incredibles 2 - $503.8 million 3. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - $333.4 million 4. Deadpool 2 - $314.5 million 5. Solo: A Star Wars Story - $210.9 million Current Answers to Box Office Questions#1: Which will gross more in total - Avengers: Infinity War, the combination of Incredibles 2 and Mission: Impossible - Fallout, the combination of Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and Ant-Man and the Wasp? - Avengers: Infinity War (currently $674.9 million)
#2: Which will gross more in total - the combination of Deadpool 2 and Skyscraper, the combination of Solo: A Star Wars Story and Christopher Robin? - The combination of Deadpool 2 and Skyscraper (currently $314.5 million)
#4: Which sequel will fall the most from its predecessor (%-wise) - Deadpool 2, The First Purge, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, Incredibles 2, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, or Sicario 2: Soldado? - The First Purge (currently -60.8%)
#5: Which sequel will gross the closest to its predecessor (%-wise) - Deadpool 2, The First Purge, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, Incredibles 2, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, or Sicario 2: Soldado? - Deadpool 2 (currently -13.4%)
#6: What will be the highest grossing film to not hit #1 on any of its weekends? - Book Club (currently $67.2 million)
#7: What movie will lose the largest number of theaters in its 3rd weekend? - Hotel Artemis (-2,136 theaters)
#8: How many films will gross over $100 million? - Six (Avengers: Infinity War, Deadpool 2, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Incredibles 2, Ocean's 8, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom)
#9: How many films will gross over $200 million? - Five (Avengers: Infinity War, Deadpool 2, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom)
#10: What will be the highest grossing film not predicted in the total gross section (including the backup films)? - Adrift (currently $30.8 million)
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Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:01 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20344 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jul
It will be very close between Solo and Ant-Man. Hopefully it ends behind Solo.
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Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:27 pm |
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stuffp
Keeping it Light
Joined: Wed Apr 08, 2015 8:06 am Posts: 11204 Location: Bright Falls
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Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jul
I don't exactly know how it's counted, but I don't think my 8? points are right.
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Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:01 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32102 Location: the last free city
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Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jul
Enjoyed 1st place while it lasted
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
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Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:46 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67039
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Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jul
Wow. Go zwack!!
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Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:50 pm |
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Proud Ryu
Deshi Basara
Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2007 3:36 pm Posts: 5322 Location: The Interstice
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Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jul
Wow, I only just noticed the theater loss for Hotel Artemis took over and despite 16 different films predicted that one wasn't. Crazy.
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Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:54 am |
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Proud Ryu
Deshi Basara
Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2007 3:36 pm Posts: 5322 Location: The Interstice
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Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jul
It seems like 15 point bonus for correct top 5 is way too much, on top of the points you already get for placing them correctly. It's almost a guaranteed win. It's too much of a reward for just getting order right, when someone else could maybe have just switched 2 films (which might be very close in box office) but loses a 15 point swing as a result.
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Wed Jul 11, 2018 10:19 am |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm Posts: 11808 Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jul
Proud Ryu wrote: It seems like 15 point bonus for correct top 5 is way too much, on top of the points you already get for placing them correctly. It's almost a guaranteed win. It's too much of a reward for just getting order right, when someone else could maybe have just switched 2 films (which might be very close in box office) but loses a 15 point swing as a result. Since no one has ever received the bonus before in the history of the game, I think the 15 point bonus is deserved and should help guarantee a win. However, I will likely change it for future games IF the bonus ends up being awarded in this game. Probably a system where you get 1 point per movie in your top 5 that ends up somewhere in the actual top 5, and then an additional point per movie where its rank was predicted correctly. I think that's a bit more balanced.
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Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:35 pm |
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Proud Ryu
Deshi Basara
Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2007 3:36 pm Posts: 5322 Location: The Interstice
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Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jul
MGKC wrote: Proud Ryu wrote: It seems like 15 point bonus for correct top 5 is way too much, on top of the points you already get for placing them correctly. It's almost a guaranteed win. It's too much of a reward for just getting order right, when someone else could maybe have just switched 2 films (which might be very close in box office) but loses a 15 point swing as a result. Since no one has ever received the bonus before in the history of the game, I think the 15 point bonus is deserved and should help guarantee a win. However, I will likely change it for future games IF the bonus ends up being awarded in this game. Probably a system where you get 1 point per movie in your top 5 that ends up somewhere in the actual top 5, and then an additional point per movie where its rank was predicted correctly. I think that's a bit more balanced. I would definitely be on board with that approach. As it sits now about all that matters is whether Ant Man beats Solo.
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Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:51 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm Posts: 11808 Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jul
stuffp wrote: I don't exactly know how it's counted, but I don't think my 8? points are right. The box office questions points in my weekly ranks are always based on the current standings of the movies' grosses (not my projections for them). You are currently getting points for: #1: Which will gross more in total - Avengers: Infinity War, the combination of The Incredibles 2 and Mission: Impossible - Fallout, the combination of Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and Ant-Man and the Wasp? #2: Which will gross more in total - the combination of Deadpool 2 and Skyscraper, the combination of Solo: A Star Wars Story and Christopher Robin? #4: Which sequel will fall the most from its predecessor (%-wise) - Deadpool 2, The First Purge, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, The Incredibles 2, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, or Sicario 2: Soldado? #9: How many films will gross over $200 million? You can view the extended results here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
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Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:00 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67039
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Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jul
Since nobody has ever predicted the top 5 correctly, it's obviously something that is difficult to get right, and so I think it's fine to be rewarded for that with a 15 point bonus.
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Wed Jul 11, 2018 10:22 pm |
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Proud Ryu
Deshi Basara
Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2007 3:36 pm Posts: 5322 Location: The Interstice
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Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Jul
Algren wrote: Since nobody has ever predicted the top 5 correctly, it's obviously something that is difficult to get right, and so I think it's fine to be rewarded for that with a 15 point bonus. It's still harder in general to predict a specific number in than a rank. You could get the top 5 rank in theory with some luck without winning any of the individual movies, or you could get all the individual movie points without getting the bonus (all it takes is swapping 2 that are close) - both would be worth 15 points but getting the numbers right is the more impressive feat there. So I think MGKC is more on the money with his recent suggestion. It's still a healthy bonus for getting the right order but can be realistically overcome by a very good predictor. A 5-movie swing would be a very tall order.
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Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:57 am |
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