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Dr. Seuss' The Grinch Predictions
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Author:  zwackerm [ Thu Mar 08, 2018 1:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Dr. Seuss' The Grinch Predictions



This comes out the second week of November, between Dark Phoenix, Nutcracker and Fantastic Beasts. Wreck-IT Ralph comes out 2 weeks after.

The Grinch is by far the best known Dr. Seuss story. But I'm not really sure anyone was looking for a second remake. I'd say around a 50m OW, and a 160-170m finish.

Author:  Rolling Thunder [ Thu Mar 08, 2018 1:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dr. Seuss' The Grinch Predictions

Hope it's better than the last one. Man, was that dismal.

Author:  Barrabás [ Thu Mar 08, 2018 4:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dr. Seuss' The Grinch Predictions

The last one is low key a beloved Christmas classic.

This one has an uphill battle but it could be huge if it becomes the main family attraction during the holidays (until Mary Poppins).

Author:  Magnus [ Thu Mar 08, 2018 4:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dr. Seuss' The Grinch Predictions

I don't like its schedule spot (I think being released in December would be better as of now) but the last four Illumination movies have done 250m+ and the Lorax adjusts to about 250m today. I'd be surprised if it doesn't get close to that mark. It's far too big of a recognizable holiday brand and I think it will be satisfying enough for audiences.

I see something like 60m/250m. It will be very leggy with the holidays even with all the competition.

Author:  Dil [ Thu Mar 08, 2018 5:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dr. Seuss' The Grinch Predictions

Yeah this could be BIG, but the schedule sucks. December would have been much better for it, but the brand is so well known that $300M+ wouldn't surprise me honestly.

Author:  Proud Ryu [ Thu Mar 08, 2018 6:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dr. Seuss' The Grinch Predictions

The main problem is that people watch The Grinch every year. Live action versions of animation is one thing. This is a bit of uncharted territory being essentially an animated remake, and it doesn't really feel like one that anyone really wants. There's an overwhelming feeling of just going for a cash grab here vs. delivering something fresh or expanding an established beloved universe. Color me very skeptical.

Author:  Algren [ Thu Mar 08, 2018 7:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dr. Seuss' The Grinch Predictions

Well, that just looks great! $270m+

Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sat Mar 10, 2018 4:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dr. Seuss' The Grinch Predictions

Yeah while I don't think it will be a quality movie the animation looks great like the usual Illumination output which will get children excited and the brand name is big enough to get adults as well. This really should have been release in December. I highly doubt Sing would have done big enough if it was released in November. Plus WIR2 will take away a lot of its audience to be relevant by holidays.

Author:  Shack [ Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dr. Seuss' The Grinch Predictions

Maybe it would've worked better as a sequel. Even if the Grinch is a good guy he can basically be Gru. Or just be shameless and just make a Gru vs Grinch movie.

Author:  O [ Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dr. Seuss' The Grinch Predictions

The last film adjusts to almost $450 m. This has huge potential but its release date is way too early. It looks like though it could make a lot of money as the second choice of families throughout the holidays. Way too many big players that time of year. Still think a Sing type performance is reasonable.

Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dr. Seuss' The Grinch Predictions

Yeah but Sing was the last animated movie of the year and it was released during the holidays. I don't think this will get the same multiplier as Sing.

Author:  i.hope [ Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dr. Seuss' The Grinch Predictions

The movie will die after Christmas Day like other holiday-themed movies. I don't see a problem with the release date.

I think the trailer is quite good for what it is, a fluffy fun family movie.

Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dr. Seuss' The Grinch Predictions

I don't think it will maintain its relevance from 9 November to all the way end of December. It will get good late legs but it won't be making much by the time holidays start.

Author:  i.hope [ Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dr. Seuss' The Grinch Predictions

Universal will keep it playing in theaters. Yes, there is a lot of competition for families. But I think this stands out as the only festive choice.

Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sat Mar 10, 2018 6:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dr. Seuss' The Grinch Predictions

Yes but after 6 weeks how much money do you think it will make? Last year DH2 made like $4m weekend by the time holidays started and while it did well for the type of movie it is, there wasn't enough boost from holidays.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?pa ... shome2.htm

Author:  Algren [ Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dr. Seuss' The Grinch Predictions

Image

Author:  lilmac [ Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:22 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Dr. Seuss' The Grinch Predictions

If this blows up then it’s clear Illumination has a Pixar-level pulse on audience and can almost do no wrong.

Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Wed Sep 19, 2018 2:29 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Dr. Seuss' The Grinch Predictions

Why? I thought Grinch was a popular character. The last movie topped the year and this won't even come close to that mark. How is that Pixar-level?

Author:  Para [ Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:25 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Dr. Seuss' The Grinch Predictions

lilmac wrote:
If this blows up then it’s clear Illumination has a Pixar-level pulse on audience and can almost do no wrong.

I think quality matters in the long run. Dreamworks used to compete with Pixar in the late 90s and early to mid 2000s. Later, other than some gems(like How to Train Your Dragon) their overall quality declined and now they aren't in the same level as Pixar. I think Illumination will go down this path too. Time will tell...

Author:  Magic Mike [ Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Dr. Seuss' The Grinch Predictions

I really wish I would have predicted more for this in the KJ Fall/Winter game. I went with 240 Million but I think it's likely going to reach 300 Million now. I should have had it at #1 instead of Mary Poppins which I'm less confident in after its disappointing trailer released this week.

Author:  Omni [ Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dr. Seuss' The Grinch Predictions

Para wrote:
lilmac wrote:
If this blows up then it’s clear Illumination has a Pixar-level pulse on audience and can almost do no wrong.

I think quality matters in the long run. Dreamworks used to compete with Pixar in the late 90s and early to mid 2000s. Later, other than some gems(like How to Train Your Dragon) their overall quality declined and now they aren't in the same level as Pixar. I think Illumination will go down this path too. Time will tell...

It's not a matter of quality, it's a matter of concept, characters and marketing. And of course of zeitgeist.
Dreamworks actually improved the quality of their products as years passed (Shrek 2, Shrek 3 and Madagascar 1/2 are barely watchable, while Kung fu Panda, Megamind, Monsters vs Aliens and HTTYD have a more refined story and animation and don't overdo with cheap gags). Boss Baby was a solid hit because of its premise, not thanks to the quality of the story.
2010 was the key year. Disney came back with a successful princess, thus bringing back to life (a renovated form of) tradition, and ending the strict link between quality and Pixar in animation, and Illumination released Despicable Me, which grossed more than Shrek 4 domestically and dethroned Dreamworks as the leader of the more childish form of animation. So, Dreamworks has fallen behind just because someone new - Illumination - entered the market and produced some extremely sellable characters and ideas (the minions, some talking animals, some singing animals, ecc...). The Illumination movies are by far worse than the Dreamworks ones under every aspect - yet...

Author:  zwackerm [ Wed Sep 19, 2018 2:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dr. Seuss' The Grinch Predictions

Magic Mike wrote:
I really wish I would have predicted more for this in the KJ Fall/Winter game. I went with 240 Million but I think it's likely going to reach 300 Million now. I should have had it at #1 instead of Mary Poppins which I'm less confident in after its disappointing trailer released this week.


Could I ask what you see it opening to and how you see its legs being? I don't see how it grosses 300m with so much competition and being so far from Christmas.

Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dr. Seuss' The Grinch Predictions

Agreed with Omni Illumination movies are worse than what DreamWorks had to offer in they heyday. Illumination will eventually settle to a decent pace and then DreamWorks will come back.

Author:  Para [ Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:01 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Dr. Seuss' The Grinch Predictions

Omni wrote:
Para wrote:
lilmac wrote:
If this blows up then it’s clear Illumination has a Pixar-level pulse on audience and can almost do no wrong.

I think quality matters in the long run. Dreamworks used to compete with Pixar in the late 90s and early to mid 2000s. Later, other than some gems(like How to Train Your Dragon) their overall quality declined and now they aren't in the same level as Pixar. I think Illumination will go down this path too. Time will tell...

It's not a matter of quality, it's a matter of concept, characters and marketing. And of course of zeitgeist.
Dreamworks actually improved the quality of their products as years passed (Shrek 2, Shrek 3 and Madagascar 1/2 are barely watchable, while Kung fu Panda, Megamind, Monsters vs Aliens and HTTYD have a more refined story and animation and don't overdo with cheap gags). Boss Baby was a solid hit because of its premise, not thanks to the quality of the story.
2010 was the key year. Disney came back with a successful princess, thus bringing back to life (a renovated form of) tradition, and ending the strict link between quality and Pixar in animation, and Illumination released Despicable Me, which grossed more than Shrek 4 domestically and dethroned Dreamworks as the leader of the more childish form of animation. So, Dreamworks has fallen behind just because someone new - Illumination - entered the market and produced some extremely sellable characters and ideas (the minions, some talking animals, some singing animals, ecc...). The Illumination movies are by far worse than the Dreamworks ones under every aspect - yet...

I agree. The reason for Illumination's success in recent years is concept and their good marketing. However this won't do them good in the long run imo. It is also interesting that Comcast/Universal now has both Illumination and Dreamworks and appointed Chris Meledandri to oversee both productions like Disney with Lasseter. I wonder if that strategy will payoff for them similarly.

Author:  Para [ Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:08 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Dr. Seuss' The Grinch Predictions

Jack Sparrow wrote:
Agreed with Omni Illumination movies are worse than what DreamWorks had to offer in they heyday. Illumination will eventually settle to a decent pace and then DreamWorks will come back.

I'd be very happy if that happened but with Meledandri overseeing them both, I have my doubts now! It'll take at least a year or two to judge Dreamworks under his leadership. I hope HTTYD 3 will be great and will end the trilogy on a high note.

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