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 March 2-4 Predictions 

Will Red Sparrow open to 20m?
Yes 58%  58%  [ 7 ]
No 42%  42%  [ 5 ]
Total votes : 12

 March 2-4 Predictions 
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Post March 2-4 Predictions
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Death Wish- 15
Red Sparrow- 24

Black Panther- -45%


Last edited by zwackerm on Sat Feb 24, 2018 10:50 am, edited 1 time in total.



Fri Feb 23, 2018 2:36 pm
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Post Re: March 2-9 Predictions
Death Wish looks fun. I like J-Law but not interested in Red Sparrow. Should cross $20m.

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Fri Feb 23, 2018 2:38 pm
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Post Re: March 2-9 Predictions
BP 56m
RS - 21m
DW - 14m

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Last edited by Rev on Sat Feb 24, 2018 2:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Fri Feb 23, 2018 3:02 pm
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Post Re: March 2-9 Predictions
I've never seen big numbers for Red Sparrow. Always looked like an $11-13m opener to me. Death Wish could go either way but it seems they are going the retro-exploitation route, so I would expect a $7-9m opening.


Fri Feb 23, 2018 9:35 pm
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Post Re: March 2-9 Predictions
Feeling a Red Sparrow mini breakout. Maybe $35 m.


Sat Feb 24, 2018 2:39 am
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Post Re: March 2-9 Predictions
Doubling the opening of Atomic Blonde is just a "mini" breakout? I think $35m would be huge for it. Cold War-era spy thrillers are a hard sell these days unless attached to an already established franchise. I don't think it does better than Blonde. That had way more hype and still only managed $18.2m.


Sat Feb 24, 2018 2:46 am
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Post Re: March 2-9 Predictions
I still think Sparrow can go over 20m but probably not by much.

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Sat Feb 24, 2018 7:35 am
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Post Re: March 2-4 Predictions
Red Sparrow - 18.595 Million
Death Wish - 17.777 Million


Sat Feb 24, 2018 12:52 pm
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Post Re: March 2-4 Predictions
Marvel's The Avengers 3rd weekend gross
$55,644,102

That is Black Panther goal to beat :D it can do it

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Sat Feb 24, 2018 2:39 pm
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Post Re: March 2-4 Predictions
Red Sparrow is going to need as big as an opening as it can get, because everything I have heard so far makes it sound like mainstream audiences are going to hate it. I have even heard some people say they expect it to be another Mother! reception wise which honestly wouldn't bother me, because I kind of loved that movie, but it had no wide appeal.

Red Sparrow - 18
Death Wish - 14

Black Panther - -45%


Sat Feb 24, 2018 3:27 pm
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Post Re: March 2-9 Predictions
Algren wrote:
Doubling the opening of Atomic Blonde is just a "mini" breakout? I think $35m would be huge for it. Cold War-era spy thrillers are a hard sell these days unless attached to an already established franchise. I don't think it does better than Blonde. That had way more hype and still only managed $18.2m.

I think Red Sparrow has more buzz and its only counter programming Black Panther. Atomic Blonde competed with Dunkirk, Apes, Spider-Man, Baby Driver, Valerian, Girls Trip and Despicable Me.


Sun Feb 25, 2018 12:57 am
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Post Re: March 2-4 Predictions
Dil wrote:
Red Sparrow is going to need as big as an opening as it can get, because everything I have heard so far makes it sound like mainstream audiences are going to hate it. I have even heard some people say they expect it to be another Mother! reception wise which honestly wouldn't bother me, because I kind of loved that movie, but it had no wide appeal.


It won't be another mother! but it won't be very well received by audiences from the sounds of it. Sounds pretty dark/heavy/twisted. Definitely more of a spy movie than exciting action film which is what audiences will be looking for. I'm thinking a C+/B- CinemaScore. Nothing close to the F mother! received.


Sun Feb 25, 2018 1:17 am
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Post Re: March 2-4 Predictions
1. BLACK PANTHER - 71.46 MILLION (-36%)
2. RED SPARROW - 18.6 MILLION (New)
3. DEATH WISH - 17.777 MILLION (New)
4. GAME NIGHT - 11.39 MILLION (-33%)
5. PETER RABBIT - 9.95 MILLION (-22%)
6. ANNIHILATION - 5.757 MILLION (-48%)
7. JUMANJI: WELCOME TO THE JUNGLE - 4.29 MILLION (-24%)
8. FIFTY SHADES FREED - 3.2 MILLION (-55%)
9. THE GREATEST SHOWMAN - 2.49 MILLION (-27%)
10. EVERY DAY - 1.93 MILLION (-36%)
11. 15:17 TO PARIS - 1.572 MILLION (-56%)

Will be interesting to see what kind of theater boost the Oscar nominees get.


Tue Feb 27, 2018 2:22 am
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Post Re: March 2-4 Predictions
Magic Mike wrote:
Dil wrote:
Red Sparrow is going to need as big as an opening as it can get, because everything I have heard so far makes it sound like mainstream audiences are going to hate it. I have even heard some people say they expect it to be another Mother! reception wise which honestly wouldn't bother me, because I kind of loved that movie, but it had no wide appeal.


It won't be another mother! but it won't be very well received by audiences from the sounds of it. Sounds pretty dark/heavy/twisted. Definitely more of a spy movie than exciting action film which is what audiences will be looking for. I'm thinking a C+/B- CinemaScore. Nothing close to the F mother! received.


Actually sounds good if it's more of a dark/twisted spy film than an actioner.

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Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:13 am
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Post Re: March 2-4 Predictions
Yeah I'm WAY more excited for it now than when I thought it would be a crowd pleasing action flick.


Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:52 am
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Post Re: March 2-4 Predictions
Red Sparrow - $17m
Death Wish - $10m

Both look like they could be DTV with a different star/title. I had hopes for Sparrow, but the reviews are meh and its hard to gain buzz in the current Panther market.


Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:58 am
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Post Re: March 2-4 Predictions
Death Wish looks DTV but still a lot of fun. Will definitely check it out.

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Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:09 pm
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Post Re: March 2-4 Predictions
Lawrence was a draw for a brief moment in time in like 2013. Her salary is absurd.

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Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:31 am
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Post Re: March 2-4 Predictions
She peaked too early in her career, and she won't become a true draw (like Sandra Bullock) until she crosses that line from young girl to woman.


Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:35 am
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Post Re: March 2-4 Predictions
JLaw was overrated both as an actress and in looks department, I wouldn't be surprised if her star goes downhill

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Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:24 am
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Post Re: March 2-4 Predictions
Hollywood always fails when they try to make stars out of young actors. It took Dwayne Johnson 10+ years and he even had a wrestling career before that! Audiences have to grow up with you, or have you in their life long enough, to consider an actor as a draw. Especially in today's culture where fly-by-night stars appear so often.


Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:27 am
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Post Re: March 2-4 Predictions
I've written about this before but the problem is they don't build brands around the actors, possibly because the actors are too afraid to get typecast. It wasn't Adam Sandler that was a draw, it was Adam Sandler movies - his signature style of humour and plots that is familiar to people. When he took those away he bombed. Most of these stars like JLaw don't have a "JLaw movie" where the style of multiple films connects and plays to her strengths. Her SLP character didn't have a connection to any future roles

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Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:24 am
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Post Re: March 2-4 Predictions
Julia Roberts 44 movies = $2.912 billion
JLaw 19 movies = $2.486 billion
Sandra Bullock 35 movies = $2.462 billion
Meryl Streep 54 movies = $2.117 billion
Halle Berry 31 movies = $1,987 billion
Jennifer Anniston 32 movies = $1.627 billion

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Wed Feb 28, 2018 5:40 am
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Post Re: March 2-4 Predictions
Now someone will come in to either say, "look she's a huge draw based on that", or "those films she's been in, would have made the same grosses without her".


Wed Feb 28, 2018 6:35 am
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Post Re: March 2-4 Predictions
Nothing unusual about JLaw's current slump after bursting on the scene. Has happened with most big stars. Same happened to Roberts, Bullock, Moore and Jolie. The former two having career resurgences after their slumps.

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Wed Feb 28, 2018 6:54 am
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