When was the last time two movies reached adjacent spots in the top 25? Lion King/Forrest Gump?

Yeah - its over now.

The only other extremely remote chance would be Mary Poppins Returns absolutely dominating in December but again even $300m would be considered an over-performance for that film.

Dude. This implies you're predicting Mary Poppins 2 over Jurassic World 2...?

Sort of.

I think a decline for JW is guaranteed so there is no way it gets to 700m. Poppins has a minute chance but a chance nevertheless. Especially in a December as wide open as this.

For the record I'm thinking 300-350m for Poppins which would be a major breakout. Thinking similar for JW2.

This would've happened if it had met or bettered audience expectations. Not unrealistic at all, given BP's audience can be assumed as existing within IW's. And there was twice the anticipation and character mash-upery in IW as there was for the first Avengers, which adjusts to just over 700mil. A 100mil increase after 6 years of (mostly) snowballing lead-up success sounds about right to me.

The difference is, Avengers 1 was actually fun, displayed an obvious elevation in entertainment value for the MCU and it still remains the strongest MCU crowd-pleaser, and IW is an obvious entertainment decline on it's previous two releases, BP and Ragnarok, and came out so fucking packed and pressure-cooked it's amazing they didn't divide it into four. Most people weren't aware of there being two parts, the antagonist wins and nearly every character gets erased just as the credits roll. A person's enthusiasm the moment they leave a theater is where WOM gets its juju (which Cameron amplified to a new level for Avatar, turkey-slapping the title across our faces right when our emotions were peaked), so a better narrative arc that people were better prepared for might have shifted things slightly.

If they'd given the thing 15 minutes extra breathing room or managed a story as engaging as the bad guy, who knows. Probably wouldn't have cracked 800, but it would've maintained it's 50mil lead on Black Panther pretty easily.

Even with a 3.5x multiplier it's still going to be 70 mil short, JW:FK will definitely cut it's multiplier down below the normal 4 or so for Pixar films. They draw similar audiences. Then next up Antman in 2 weeks.