Yep $800m is not happening unless the movie opens to $300m. Even with a record breaking opening the best case for it would be $700m-$750m total.

I am not sure where this logic is coming from.

Let's say 250 million opening weekend and 50% drops (I know it is more complex than that, and there are other releases, open dates that could effect this)

OW: 250 million
Week 1: 80 million
2W: 125 million
Week 2: 40 million
3W: 62.5 million
Week 3: 20 million
4W: 31.25 million
Week 4: 10 million

That means before Memorial Day we are already at $620 million. And I would say those numbers are fairly conservative since there is no competition to speak of until 4th weekend (though that weekend it will almost certainly drop more than 50% with Deadpool 2's release). Then we will have a Memorial Day weekend bump which would put it well on its way.

Now with all that said. I don't expect that to necessarily play out this way. But to say even with OW record, $800 isn't happening is a bit of putting the cart before the horse.

4W sees the release of DP2 so if it is already dropping 50% every weekend before by then it won't drop the same. Plus from $620m from a $32m weekend is MAX another $128m (and this is high given the trend of this movie) that would be $748m right at where I project it to be

Agreed, but the point I was making is it wouldn't take all the much (say 42% drops every week) to make over $800 million. Not necessarily likely, but my bold prediction. 1st step looks like it is happening.

OK but it doesn't work like that 50% to 42% is a HUGE jump. The original Avengers dropped 50% and I don't see IW doing better than that in its 2nd weekend.

Took 4 more days than I was expecting but IW had it's first day under 1m on it's 46th day