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 If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the US... 
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
When was the last time two movies reached adjacent spots in the top 25? Lion King/Forrest Gump?

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Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:52 pm
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Deshi Basara
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
lilmac wrote:
When was the last time two movies reached adjacent spots in the top 25? Lion King/Forrest Gump?


Finding Dory / Rogue One (2016)
Passion of the Christ / Spider-man 2 (2004)
Fellowship of the Ring / Sorcerer's Stone (2001)

The tightest top 2 race % wise was Top Gun / Crocodile Dundee (1986) (a bit closer than in 2001)

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Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:10 am
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
IW lead is down to 2.5m

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Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:16 pm
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
So our only hope now is Incredibles 2, and that probably just has a 20% chance. But if Dory couldn't get anywhere near, I doubt Elastigirl will be able to. No other film has a chance.


Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:32 pm
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
Yeah - its over now.

The only other extremely remote chance would be Mary Poppins Returns absolutely dominating in December but again even $300m would be considered an over-performance for that film.

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Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:26 pm
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
MadGez wrote:
Yeah - its over now.

The only other extremely remote chance would be Mary Poppins Returns absolutely dominating in December but again even $300m would be considered an over-performance for that film.


Dude. This implies you're predicting Mary Poppins 2 over Jurassic World 2...?

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Fri Jun 15, 2018 3:59 pm
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
Looks like today will be the day that BP reclaims the 2018 throne


Sat Jun 16, 2018 4:02 pm
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
#WakandaForever!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Sat Jun 16, 2018 4:11 pm
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
Proud Ryu wrote:
MadGez wrote:
Yeah - its over now.

The only other extremely remote chance would be Mary Poppins Returns absolutely dominating in December but again even $300m would be considered an over-performance for that film.


Dude. This implies you're predicting Mary Poppins 2 over Jurassic World 2...?


Sort of.

I think a decline for JW is guaranteed so there is no way it gets to 700m. Poppins has a minute chance but a chance nevertheless. Especially in a December as wide open as this.

For the record I'm thinking 300-350m for Poppins which would be a major breakout. Thinking similar for JW2.

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Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:15 pm
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
MadGez wrote:
Proud Ryu wrote:
MadGez wrote:
Yeah - its over now.

The only other extremely remote chance would be Mary Poppins Returns absolutely dominating in December but again even $300m would be considered an over-performance for that film.


Dude. This implies you're predicting Mary Poppins 2 over Jurassic World 2...?


Sort of.

I think a decline for JW is guaranteed so there is no way it gets to 700m. Poppins has a minute chance but a chance nevertheless. Especially in a December as wide open as this.

For the record I'm thinking 300-350m for Poppins which would be a major breakout. Thinking similar for JW2.


What about Incredibles 2?

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Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:38 pm
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
I just don't think Incredibles 2 will have enough juice in the tank to go over $700m. Big opening, sure. Probably some decent weekend holds too. But $700m is unprecedented territory and it requires so much repeat business and lingering cultural buzz, which I just do not see Incredibles 2 getting. Still, it will easily become Pixar's highest-grossing film ever.


Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:50 pm
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
Yeah would love it if TI2 could hit $700m but I think it will end up between $580-$620m.

It would be insane if it did hit $600m - making it the 4th film in 6 months to do so (when we only had 5 films to ever cross that mark previously).

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Sun Jun 17, 2018 8:30 am
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
And the second best animated film hasn't even cleared $500m, it would indeed be insane.


Sun Jun 17, 2018 9:31 am
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
Yes very true. Even adjusted that would put it 3rd behind TLK and Shrek 2.

All it needs is a multiplier in between Dory and Monsters Uni. Very doable.

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Sun Jun 17, 2018 10:06 am
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
With Incredibles 2 having a $180 million opening weekend. #1 is certainly in play. Probably not a likely scenario, but it is definitely possible.

Gamaur wrote:
Moviebuf wrote:
Final Prediction: $800 million Domestic, $2 Billion Global


This would've happened if it had met or bettered audience expectations. Not unrealistic at all, given BP's audience can be assumed as existing within IW's. And there was twice the anticipation and character mash-upery in IW as there was for the first Avengers, which adjusts to just over 700mil. A 100mil increase after 6 years of (mostly) snowballing lead-up success sounds about right to me.

The difference is, Avengers 1 was actually fun, displayed an obvious elevation in entertainment value for the MCU and it still remains the strongest MCU crowd-pleaser, and IW is an obvious entertainment decline on it's previous two releases, BP and Ragnarok, and came out so fucking packed and pressure-cooked it's amazing they didn't divide it into four. Most people weren't aware of there being two parts, the antagonist wins and nearly every character gets erased just as the credits roll. A person's enthusiasm the moment they leave a theater is where WOM gets its juju (which Cameron amplified to a new level for Avatar, turkey-slapping the title across our faces right when our emotions were peaked), so a better narrative arc that people were better prepared for might have shifted things slightly.

If they'd given the thing 15 minutes extra breathing room or managed a story as engaging as the bad guy, who knows. Probably wouldn't have cracked 800, but it would've maintained it's 50mil lead on Black Panther pretty easily.


Ya, I was a little off on the Domestic. Was expecting a better 2nd weekend hold. After that didn't happen, my prediction was doomed.

I pretty much nailed OW and WW though. So I will take it.

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Sun Jun 17, 2018 11:49 am
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
Even with a 3.5x multiplier it's still going to be 70 mil short, JW:FK will definitely cut it's multiplier down below the normal 4 or so for Pixar films. They draw similar audiences. Then next up Antman in 2 weeks.


Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:34 pm
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
Passionate Thug wrote:
Even with a 3.5x multiplier it's still going to be 70 mil short, JW:FK will definitely cut it's multiplier down below the normal 4 or so for Pixar films. They draw similar audiences. Then next up Antman in 2 weeks.

4x isn't the norm for Pixar, at least in summer. Freaking Inside Out couldn't manage it, Toy Story 3 got a 3.75x, Brave stopped at 3.6x, Dory at 3.5x and MU at 3.3x.

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Sun Jun 17, 2018 4:28 pm
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
I think it gets a 3.4 multiplier which would put it in the $610-620m zone.

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Sun Jun 17, 2018 7:57 pm
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
The original had a 3.7x with A+ Cinemascore, holidays, no previews, 14 years ago, and never faced a 50+ opener.

This one is not a lock for a 3x.

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Mon Jun 18, 2018 11:12 am
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
You also have to take into consideration that animated movies opening in the first weekend of November never get great legs. Chicken Little, Bee Movie, Madagascar 3, Megamind, Ralph, Trolls...none of them got to 4x. After 2004, the only one that came very close was Big Hero 6. Also, The Incredibles had to face two solid animated movies on its 2nd and 3rd weekend, while Monsters Inc (which managed a 4.1x) only had Jimmy Neutron (°_°) in late December. Finally, TI started to develop weak legs only in December, I guess mostly due to Polar Express holding exceptionally well.
The key for I2 is how JW2 opens and how it's received.

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Mon Jun 18, 2018 11:47 am
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
I think it will have a steeper than expected drop this week due to JW2 but then should rally and have solid legs after that.

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Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:09 pm
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
I just have a feeling that Incredibles 2 is going to make a run. It is kind of the perfect combo of everything going for it right now.

Super Hero movies are in, hasn't been a tent pole kids movie in 6 months (and there won't be another for another month), really good reviews, and it has really good word of mouth.

I don't know if it will make $700 million, BUT I am willing to be right now 3x multiplier is definitely a guarantee.

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Mon Jun 18, 2018 9:59 pm
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
Yeah but that won't even get it to $600m. lol


Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:36 pm
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
It should get a minimum 3.3 IM and top 600m

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Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:30 am
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
The guy doing WAKANDA FOREVER at the NBA draft cements as this as the first equal to THE DARK KNIGHT in terms of pop culture penetration in near 10 years.

Well done.

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Sat Jun 23, 2018 3:26 am
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