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 If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the US... 
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
You are never going to let go of that :funny:


Wed Apr 25, 2018 8:43 pm
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Angels & Demons

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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
Hello All,

It has been YEARS since I have posted on here, but the hype of Infinity War has brought me back. Big time MCU guy. Loved Black Panther, but I think it is fairly obvious that Infinity War is about to explode.

The hype is like nothing I have seen outside of The Force Awakens, and with that my first prediction. Infinity War is going to open with 250+ million maybe 260.

2nd, it has basically no competition until its 4th weekend, which will probably be its biggest drop of its run due to Deadpool, but the very next weekend is Memorial Day weekend which will give it a bump.

Don't underestimate. It won't need the legs of Black Panther to shoot by it.

Final Prediction: $800 million Domestic, $2 Billion Global

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Wed Apr 25, 2018 9:49 pm
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
800 is a fairly unrealistic mark (even given that Black Panther is in it).

A 3.0 mult is extremely unlikely even with an A+ cinemascore. Something around 2.5 +/- a couple tenths is the realistic range.

The main reason it would get the high end of that range other than extremely good WOM is a mildly muted first weekend due to school activity.

I do still have trouble believing it won't at least beat BP though.

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Thu Apr 26, 2018 2:51 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
Yep $800m is not happening unless the movie opens to $300m. Even with a record breaking opening the best case for it would be $700m-$750m total.


Thu Apr 26, 2018 6:53 pm
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
Jack Sparrow wrote:
Yep $800m is not happening unless the movie opens to $300m. Even with a record breaking opening the best case for it would be $700m-$750m total.


I am not sure where this logic is coming from.

Let's say 250 million opening weekend and 50% drops (I know it is more complex than that, and there are other releases, open dates that could effect this)

OW: 250 million
Week 1: 80 million
2W: 125 million
Week 2: 40 million
3W: 62.5 million
Week 3: 20 million
4W: 31.25 million
Week 4: 10 million

That means before Memorial Day we are already at $620 million. And I would say those numbers are fairly conservative since there is no competition to speak of until 4th weekend (though that weekend it will almost certainly drop more than 50% with Deadpool 2's release). Then we will have a Memorial Day weekend bump which would put it well on its way.

Now with all that said. I don't expect that to necessarily play out this way. But to say even with OW record, $800 isn't happening is a bit of putting the cart before the horse.

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Fri Apr 27, 2018 4:19 pm
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
I think it's secured

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Fri Apr 27, 2018 4:35 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
Moviebuf wrote:
Jack Sparrow wrote:
Yep $800m is not happening unless the movie opens to $300m. Even with a record breaking opening the best case for it would be $700m-$750m total.


I am not sure where this logic is coming from.

Let's say 250 million opening weekend and 50% drops (I know it is more complex than that, and there are other releases, open dates that could effect this)

OW: 250 million
Week 1: 80 million
2W: 125 million
Week 2: 40 million
3W: 62.5 million
Week 3: 20 million
4W: 31.25 million
Week 4: 10 million

That means before Memorial Day we are already at $620 million. And I would say those numbers are fairly conservative since there is no competition to speak of until 4th weekend (though that weekend it will almost certainly drop more than 50% with Deadpool 2's release). Then we will have a Memorial Day weekend bump which would put it well on its way.

Now with all that said. I don't expect that to necessarily play out this way. But to say even with OW record, $800 isn't happening is a bit of putting the cart before the horse.


4W sees the release of DP2 so if it is already dropping 50% every weekend before by then it won't drop the same. Plus from $620m from a $32m weekend is MAX another $128m (and this is high given the trend of this movie) that would be $748m right at where I project it to be :)


Fri Apr 27, 2018 9:55 pm
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Angels & Demons

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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
Jack Sparrow wrote:
Moviebuf wrote:
Jack Sparrow wrote:
Yep $800m is not happening unless the movie opens to $300m. Even with a record breaking opening the best case for it would be $700m-$750m total.


I am not sure where this logic is coming from.

Let's say 250 million opening weekend and 50% drops (I know it is more complex than that, and there are other releases, open dates that could effect this)

OW: 250 million
Week 1: 80 million
2W: 125 million
Week 2: 40 million
3W: 62.5 million
Week 3: 20 million
4W: 31.25 million
Week 4: 10 million

That means before Memorial Day we are already at $620 million. And I would say those numbers are fairly conservative since there is no competition to speak of until 4th weekend (though that weekend it will almost certainly drop more than 50% with Deadpool 2's release). Then we will have a Memorial Day weekend bump which would put it well on its way.

Now with all that said. I don't expect that to necessarily play out this way. But to say even with OW record, $800 isn't happening is a bit of putting the cart before the horse.


4W sees the release of DP2 so if it is already dropping 50% every weekend before by then it won't drop the same. Plus from $620m from a $32m weekend is MAX another $128m (and this is high given the trend of this movie) that would be $748m right at where I project it to be :)


Agreed, but the point I was making is it wouldn't take all the much (say 42% drops every week) to make over $800 million. Not necessarily likely, but my bold prediction. 1st step looks like it is happening. :D

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Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:58 am
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
This will be decided by the end of next weekend, If IW racks up $450m+ by next Sunday it will take the year.


Sun Apr 29, 2018 12:02 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
Moviebuf wrote:

Agreed, but the point I was making is it wouldn't take all the much (say 42% drops every week) to make over $800 million. Not necessarily likely, but my bold prediction. 1st step looks like it is happening. :D


OK but it doesn't work like that 50% to 42% is a HUGE jump. The original Avengers dropped 50% and I don't see IW doing better than that in its 2nd weekend.


Sun Apr 29, 2018 2:14 pm
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Angels & Demons

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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
Jack Sparrow wrote:
Moviebuf wrote:

Agreed, but the point I was making is it wouldn't take all the much (say 42% drops every week) to make over $800 million. Not necessarily likely, but my bold prediction. 1st step looks like it is happening. :D


OK but it doesn't work like that 50% to 42% is a HUGE jump. The original Avengers dropped 50% and I don't see IW doing better than that in its 2nd weekend.


Fair enough, we shall see. I haven't been watching box office in years, and the hype I have been feeling around this just seems different + Black Panther doing much of the same thing. This just feels different to me. 42% is extreme, but it isn't needed to get to $800 million.

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Sun Apr 29, 2018 2:47 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
The best way to look at it is through multipliers. I am assuming it does $260m OW (now with the revised estimates, if not slightly more). It needs a multiplier of 3.1 from here on to get past $800m mark. MCU movies have an average of 2.8 where in the recent sequels coming in lower. I don't think $800m is happening even with this humungous opening BUT if it does happen I will be surprised.


Mon Apr 30, 2018 12:40 am
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
Wow after 4 weekends, looks like BP's still in the drivers seat. IW got a 50m head start on the opening weekend but BP's slowly chipping away at it. Does IW have another 100m-103m left in the tank?

Solo this weekend

Ocean's 8- June 8th

Incredibles 2- June 15th

Jurassic World 2- June 22nd


Mon May 21, 2018 3:45 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
I think Solo, Ocean's 8 and Incredibles 2 won't be that big of a problem for IW. Solo due to holiday weekend and Disney release. Ocean's 8 targets different audiences and Incredibles with Avengers will work better than Solo in double feature of Disney movies, but you never know, still both being from and studio will always help.

JW2 is where it will drop hardest but by that time it would have taken all the advantage it gets from summer.


Mon May 21, 2018 9:41 pm
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
Any doubt left now that the King will retain his 2018 crown?


Sun May 27, 2018 1:56 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
Yep BP is staying #1


Sun May 27, 2018 1:59 pm
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
IW is looking to finish around $660-$670M domestic now, so BP will win this by quite a bit.


Sun May 27, 2018 2:02 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
I think IW can still sneak past $675m with summer holidays but yeah this won't be very close in the end.


Sun May 27, 2018 2:24 pm
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
Would not be shocked by a Black Panther mini re-release prior to awards season next year. The Academy simply can't ignore a $700 m + pop culture and socially relevant phenomenon. Even with strong films down the line, I don't see how BP isn't a lock for best picture nom at this point. From the first six months of the year it clearly has captured the public's attention like no other film has. I actually am starting to think it has an outside chance to win and not just be a "symbolic" nomination.

People have moved on already from the Avengers and even Deadpool. Yet everyone is still giving shout outs to Wakanda references. It's clearly in a whole other league.


Sun May 27, 2018 2:52 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
I agree with rest of your post but come on people have moved on from IW? It won't have pop culture references like that of BP but does that mean people don't remember it? In this day and age how long does pop culture references stay relevant?

DP2 is in its second weekend and will make $50m+ in domestic market over the long weekend. Again it's not going to be next level of DP but it's definitely not forgotten.

As for BP winning at awards I don't think it's that strong of a movie to win the BP ;)


Sun May 27, 2018 9:30 pm
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
It's a given now that IW drops are a bit shitty

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Mon May 28, 2018 10:05 am
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
Looks like after 39 days IW's lead has shrunk to around 11m domestic in the dailies. BP lasted 53 days until it's first under 1m day. IW is probably looking at making it to around day 42. So looking at the trend the lead should evaporate within the next 10 days


Tue Jun 05, 2018 3:13 pm
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
After 45 days the lead has shrunk down to only $4.2 million for Infinity War.
Damn I should’ve had more faith in BP :D #WakandaForever

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Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:30 pm
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
Took 4 more days than I was expecting but IW had it's first day under 1m on it's 46th day


Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:26 pm
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Post Re: If Black Panther were to remain #1 for the year in the U
Passionate Thug wrote:
Took 4 more days than I was expecting but IW had it's first day under 1m on it's 46th day

6 days less than BP

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