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 Weekend Estimates (2/16-2/18) 
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (2/16-2/18)
So in just a year we've seen four films open to $120 m + in March, September, December and now February. In fact, 4/5 of the biggest OW's last year were outside the summer. Considering all of those months were not always seen as seeing huge OW's until fairly recently, it's a big testament of how for the right film people will show up any time of the year. Again, in just five months we've seen $120 m + opening in September of all months, and now possibly a $200 m opening in February.

Yet another year where the pre-summer period may be more exciting to track than the actual summer period.


Mon Feb 19, 2018 3:47 am
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The Antichrist
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (2/16-2/18)
Magnus wrote:
Also, just with the 218m estimate, if BP matches DP legs it gets 600m. If it goes up then matching DP legs gives it 615m+.

:huh:
Deadpool's multiplier (using the 4-day figure) is 2.385x. With 218M, Black Panther would "only" get to 520M, and it would need 252M over the 4 days to pass the 600M mark.

If Rth gets it right, 600M will certainly be in play, though that still requires better legs than a movie that already got good legs (at least for the genre).

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Mon Feb 19, 2018 5:11 am
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Cream of the Crop
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (2/16-2/18)
Magnus wrote:
Also, just with the 218m estimate, if BP matches DP legs it gets 600m. If it goes up then matching DP legs gives it 615m+.

And keep in mind, while DP legs were strong, it still dropped 57% on its 2nd weekend and over 45% on its 3rd and 4th weekend. It’s totally attainable.


You used the 4-day estimate for Black Panther and mixed it with the multiplier from Deadpool's 3-day opening? Kinda strange. Deadpool's multiplier from the 4-day opening was 2.39, which would be a $520m gross from $218m 4-day opening.

This is all irrelevant anyway since Black Panther is probably going to be around $230-235m for the 4-day instead of $218m. :funny:


Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:28 am
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (2/16-2/18)
I heard a rumor the 3-day is actually $202 mil?

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Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:29 am
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (2/16-2/18)
Chippy wrote:
I heard a rumor the 3-day is actually $202 mil?


That sounds about right. Deadline reported late yesterday that the Sunday gross was near $60m.


Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:32 am
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (2/16-2/18)
So it's crossing $230m mark for 4-day. Just needs to follow DP's legs to get past $600m and given the competition it has all the help it needs.


Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:00 pm
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (2/16-2/18)
Jack Sparrow wrote:
So it's crossing $230m mark for 4-day. Just needs to follow DP's legs to get past $600m and given the competition it has all the help it needs.


Deadpool had a 2.39 multiplier from the 4-day opening. I'm going to give Black Panther $238m for the 4-day opening. Deadpool legs would mean a $569m total.


Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:08 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (2/16-2/18)
Damn. I misread Omni's $252m as $225m. Thanks for correction red.


Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:12 pm
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (2/16-2/18)
Mojo just updated the 3 day weekend chart to $201.8m


Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:16 pm
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The Incredible Hulk

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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (2/16-2/18)
I'm a newbie here, I want to know where is the 'industry' estimate come from. What is the 'industry' in this context (theatre chain? analysis firm?)?


Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:59 pm
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (2/16-2/18)
Just insane how close this came to beating The Avenger's three-day even if it is unadjusted. Its even crazier that it will come within $10-$15 million of The Force Awakens OW.


Mon Feb 19, 2018 1:27 pm
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (2/16-2/18)
RTH is saying Monday could possibly take the record... Jesus.


Tue Feb 20, 2018 3:12 am
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (2/16-2/18)
The record is currently with TFA at $40m if that happens its cap is no longer to be sure at $600m. It really feels like IW just cannot match its hype anymore.


Tue Feb 20, 2018 3:43 am
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (2/16-2/18)
publicenemy#1 wrote:
RTH is saying Monday could possibly take the record... Jesus.


WOW! It's like TFA all over again but more shocking

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Tue Feb 20, 2018 9:16 am
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (2/16-2/18)
WTF? If it tops $40 million on Monday, we are almost certainly looking at a $600 million total.

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Tue Feb 20, 2018 10:38 am
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (2/16-2/18)
Down goes "The Last Jedi"!! 40.1M (-34%) estimate for Monday! 242.4M in the first 4 Days! #2 All-Time in the first 4 days!

http://deadline.com/2018/02/black-panth ... 202291093/


Last edited by Passionate Thug on Tue Feb 20, 2018 11:38 am, edited 1 time in total.



Tue Feb 20, 2018 11:33 am
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (2/16-2/18)
Passionate Thug wrote:
Down goes "The Last Jedi"!! 40.1M (-34%) estimate for Monday! 242.4M in the first 4 Days! #2 All-Time

http://deadline.com/2018/02/black-panth ... 202291093/

:noway:

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Tue Feb 20, 2018 11:38 am
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (2/16-2/18)
Also takes the #1 slot for best monday ever from TFA!

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Last edited by Passionate Thug on Tue Feb 20, 2018 11:41 am, edited 1 time in total.



Tue Feb 20, 2018 11:40 am
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (2/16-2/18)
Man! If only Friday was 8m higher then it would become #3 best 3day OW.

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Tue Feb 20, 2018 11:41 am
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (2/16-2/18)
Rev wrote:
Man! If only Friday was 8m higher then it would become #3 best 3day OW.


Actual's still haven't been announced, so it could still happen.....


Tue Feb 20, 2018 11:43 am
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (2/16-2/18)
Holy fuck.

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Tue Feb 20, 2018 11:46 am
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (2/16-2/18)
Didn't expect that.

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Tue Feb 20, 2018 11:49 am
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (2/16-2/18)
Chippy wrote:
Holy fuck.

Indeed! :funny:


Tue Feb 20, 2018 11:51 am
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (2/16-2/18)
I wonder what percentage of US total African American population will end up seeing it in theatres. There are about 41 million African Americans living in the States. If 37% of Black Panther's OW audiences were African Americans, with the average ticket price of, let's say, $10, then almost 9 million African Americans have seen it during the first four days. Some of those will, of course, include repeat viewings. But we can probably assume that 6-7 million have seen it. By the end of its run it will be well over one-third of the entire African American population of the US.

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Tue Feb 20, 2018 1:51 pm
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (2/16-2/18)
I hope 50% of the AA community end up seeing it before it’s run ends. The goal now is to beat the first Avengers movie.

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Tue Feb 20, 2018 1:55 pm
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