Variety Tracking is at 30-38m for WiT and 42-48 for BP
At this pace it's going to make it to at least 5 weeks with Pacific Rim maybe knocking it off.
| World of KJ http://worldofkj.com/forum/ |
|
| How long will the King Reign? http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=83999 |
Page 2 of 3 |
| Author: | Rev [ Mon Feb 19, 2018 9:54 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How long will the King Reign? |
Barrabás wrote: Algren wrote: Yeah, 3 weeks. A Wrinkle in Time will attract a lot of the black fellas and females that will be propping up Black Panther week-in/week-out, and by that time it will be earning $28-40m (4th weekend), so I think Oprah can manage that. Though I'd put some of my money on it staying at #1 for 4 weeks. Maybe I'd go for a 70-30 split here. I kind of also see AWiT disappointing with just high teens/low 20s. It does look like dog shit. Black men aren't going to be watching A Wrinkle in Time. #FakeNews |
|
| Author: | Chaplainfan [ Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:50 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How long will the King Reign? |
I feel a drop over 50% is correct. |
|
| Author: | lilmac [ Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:53 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How long will the King Reign? |
I'm beginning to come around to the BP for #1 of the Year projection. It would have to have one of the worst legs in the MCU to not get to $487m (#10 slot) https://www.the-numbers.com/news/229020 ... Movie-Legs The topic for this week will be BP's legs. Movie / OW / final gross / multiplier: Guardians of the Galaxy $94,320,883 $333,172,112 3.53 Ant-Man $57,225,526 $180,202,163 3.15 Iron Man $102,118,668 $318,604,126 3.12 The Avengers $207,438,708 $6232,79,547 3.00 Spider-Man: Homecoming $117,027,503 $334,201,140 2.86 Thor $65,723,338 $181,03,0624 2.75 Doctor Strange $85,058,311 $232,641,920 2.74 Captain America: The Winter Soldier $95,023,721 $259,746,958 2.73 Captain America: The First Avenger $65,058,524 $176,654,505 2.72 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 $146,510,104 $389,813,101 2.66 Thor: Ragnarok $122,744,989 $314,444,124 2.56 Iron Man 2 $128,122,480 $312,433,331 2.44 The Incredible Hulk $55,414,050 $134,806,913 2.43 Thor: The Dark World $85,737,841 $206,362,140 2.41 Avengers: Age of Ultron $191,271,109 $459,005,868 2.40 Iron Man 3 $174,144,585 $408,992,272 2.35 Captain America: Civil War $179,139,142 $408,084,349 2.28 |
|
| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Tue Feb 20, 2018 10:39 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How long will the King Reign? |
Whoever wins...Disney wins anyway, heh. |
|
| Author: | lilmac [ Tue Feb 20, 2018 10:46 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How long will the King Reign? |
You are right. They could nap 4 of the top 5 spots (BP, Incredibles, Solo and IW). Amazing. |
|
| Author: | Algren [ Tue Feb 20, 2018 11:25 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How long will the King Reign? |
Barrabás wrote: Algren wrote: Yeah, 3 weeks. A Wrinkle in Time will attract a lot of the black fellas and females that will be propping up Black Panther week-in/week-out, and by that time it will be earning $28-40m (4th weekend), so I think Oprah can manage that. Though I'd put some of my money on it staying at #1 for 4 weeks. Maybe I'd go for a 70-30 split here. I kind of also see AWiT disappointing with just high teens/low 20s. It does look like dog shit. Black men aren't going to be watching A Wrinkle in Time. Of course they will. They will accompany their black women. |
|
| Author: | Passionate Thug [ Tue Feb 20, 2018 11:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How long will the King Reign? |
Another thought, how long will it stay in the top 10? I'm thinking until Deadpool 2 arrives |
|
| Author: | MadGez [ Wed Feb 21, 2018 7:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How long will the King Reign? |
Tracking from Variety: Black Panther” could take in as much as $100 million during the upcoming Feb. 23-25 weekend and it’s likely to lead during the March 2-4 frame, when Jennifer Lawrence’s “Red Sparrow” is pegged to open in the $18 million-$25 million range for Fox, while MGM’s “Death Wish” should come in with $15 million-$20 million. Initial tracking released this week for “A Wrinkle in Time” shows a range of $34 million-$37 million — hardly a blockbuster number at the moment, though those figures can shift significantly by the time the film opens. But that may be enough to beat “Black Panther,” which will eventually have to start slowing down its record-breaking pace. Would expect WIT to go over $40m and maybe $50m. Hopefully Sparrow can go above $25m and DW over $20m. |
|
| Author: | Jonathan [ Sun Feb 25, 2018 3:56 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How long will the King Reign? |
Beginning to seriously wonder if Wrinkle in Time will pull a Tomorrowland/John Carter and open under $35 million, a mark that Black Panther's fourth weekend could easily top.... |
|
| Author: | Passionate Thug [ Sun Feb 25, 2018 4:13 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How long will the King Reign? |
Updated predicts- Week 2- 100m (108 estimated Actual) Week 3- 50m > Upping this to 65m (<44% drop) Week 4- 30m > Upping this to 40m, Will be a tight race with WiT winning within 1m |
|
| Author: | Passionate Thug [ Mon Feb 26, 2018 10:19 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How long will the King Reign? |
I'm thinking Black Panther passes The Avengers ($623,357,910) during the fourth or fifth weekend and Jurassic World Titanic between the 5th and 6th weekend. Week 3- $120m ($523m) Week 4- 85M ($608m) Week 5- 68m ($676m ) Week 6- 46m ($722m) |
|
| Author: | MadGez [ Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:44 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How long will the King Reign? |
Wrinkle is getting mixed reviews and could underperform against expectations. But even if it opens to no.1, Magnus is right - the rest of March is so pathetic that BP is likely to regain no.1 |
|
| Author: | Algren [ Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How long will the King Reign? |
If it loses to AWIT on the weekend but wins the entire week, you can't just ignore the weekend and say it was #1 for x number of straight weeks. That's like saying if it has the highest 2018 domestic gross it pulled off 12 months at #1. It's just silly, and bending stuff to please yourself. If all that you say happens, it wasn't #1 for 5 straight weeks. Neither was Avatar. It was #1 for exactly 4 weeks. |
|
| Author: | Algren [ Wed Feb 28, 2018 7:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How long will the King Reign? |
I get it, and I follow that as well. But if AWIT beats it for even one day, that lessens any claim of "#1 for x weeks" for me. |
|
| Author: | Passionate Thug [ Sun Mar 04, 2018 12:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How long will the King Reign? |
Going to be close this week, But I think T'challa will defend his throne at least 1 more weekend to the tune of 40m while AWiT will struggle to get to 35m Can't see either of these opening over 20m right now March 16- Tomb Raider and Isle of Dogs March 23- Pacific Rim- Uprising |
|
| Author: | Rev [ Sun Mar 04, 2018 12:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How long will the King Reign? |
Passionate Thug wrote: Going to be close this week, But I think T'challa will defend his throne at least 1 more weekend to the tune of 40m while AWiT will struggle to get to 35m I hope AWIT tops 40m if not 50m. I want it to be a hit. |
|
| Author: | Jonathan [ Sun Mar 04, 2018 1:44 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How long will the King Reign? |
Unfortunately, I'm feeling pretty confident that Wrinkle in Time is gonna land in that "failed franchise launch for Disney" range of $29-34 million where Prince of Persia, John Carter, The Lone Ranger, and Tomorrowland all ended up in. So I think Black Panther will win another weekend. I'm actually less confident about a fifth weekend win though. I think Tomb Raider could still do well, and I'm really wondering about a Love, Simon breakout - reviews about good, and I feel like there's gonna be a lot of hype about it being a gay romance for teens. |
|
| Author: | Rolling Thunder [ Sun Mar 04, 2018 2:33 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How long will the King Reign? |
Jonathan wrote: I'm really wondering about a Love, Simon breakout - reviews about good, and I feel like there's gonna be a lot of hype about it being a gay romance for teens. Isn't that a really niche audience? |
|
| Author: | Dil [ Sun Mar 04, 2018 4:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How long will the King Reign? |
Yep I see BP winning this weekend again, but even if WIT does beat it I believe it won't be by much either way. |
|
| Author: | Passionate Thug [ Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How long will the King Reign? |
Variety Tracking is at 30-38m for WiT and 42-48 for BP At this pace it's going to make it to at least 5 weeks with Pacific Rim maybe knocking it off.
|
|
| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Wed Mar 07, 2018 3:48 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How long will the King Reign? |
Yeah I don't think $48m is happening regardless of the tracking. AWIT is going to attract a big crowd out of BP; black families, women. BP is holding well but a sub-30% drop seems difficult, I think people are spoiled too much with Jumanji and TGS's run. |
|
| Author: | lilmac [ Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How long will the King Reign? |
Could we be looking at a 5-peat if Tomb Raider gets bad critic reviews and grosses less than $22-24m ? |
|
| Author: | Algren [ Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How long will the King Reign? |
Tomb Raider is going to tank, so Black Panther will win again. |
|
| Author: | lilmac [ Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:33 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How long will the King Reign? |
Five weeks is rarefied company. Still reeling from Cameron’s 1-2 punch. He releases a film that repeats 15 weekends at numero uno. His next film stays at the top for 7 weekends (in a changed marketplace where it was harder to stay on top)! |
|
| Author: | Passionate Thug [ Sun Mar 11, 2018 4:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: How long will the King Reign? |
I think the Kiaju will finally take the King down in the Sixth week, Just amazing! |
|
| Page 2 of 3 | All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ] |
| Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group http://www.phpbb.com/ |
|