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Passionate Thug
Top Poster
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:01 am Posts: 5261 Location: Wakanda
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How long will the King Reign?
It's got a pretty clear path until Wrinkle in Time, what say you?
Feb 20th- Annihilation and Game Night Feb 27th- Death Wish and Red Sparrow March 6th- Wrinkle in Time, Gringo, Strangers: Prey at Night
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Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:19 pm |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm Posts: 63026 Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: How long will the King Reign?
I could see Red Sparrow breaking out, but not to the $40+ mil it may/will need to dethrone BP.
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:42 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32097 Location: the last free city
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Re: How long will the King Reign?
It’ll stay #1 until A Wrinkle InTime opens March 9th
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Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:08 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Re: How long will the King Reign?
Rev wrote: It’ll stay #1 until A Wrinkle InTime opens March 9th Agreed, even though Wrinkle appears to be tracking softly.
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Wed Feb 14, 2018 6:52 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23762 Location: Classified
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Re: How long will the King Reign?
Wrinkle should be good for a $50m weekend. But Black Panther should still be in the $25-30m range that weekend so there is a chance it holds. Tomb Raider and Pacific Rim aren’t guaranteed to open over $20m either, so it could get out of control.
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Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:26 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67032
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Re: How long will the King Reign?
Yeah, 3 weeks. A Wrinkle in Time will attract a lot of the black fellas and females that will be propping up Black Panther week-in/week-out, and by that time it will be earning $28-40m (4th weekend), so I think Oprah can manage that. Though I'd put some of my money on it staying at #1 for 4 weeks. Maybe I'd go for a 70-30 split here. I kind of also see AWiT disappointing with just high teens/low 20s. It does look like dog shit.
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Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:40 pm |
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Dil
Forum General
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 9:48 pm Posts: 8942 Location: Houston, Texas
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Re: How long will the King Reign?
Until AWIT sounds about right unless that one out right flops. I still have no idea what that movie is going to do, but surely it can't be less than $20M right?
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Thu Feb 15, 2018 1:59 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 21880 Location: Places
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Re: How long will the King Reign?
AWIT looks retarded tbh
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Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:08 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: How long will the King Reign?
3 weeks yes.
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Thu Feb 15, 2018 12:12 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20340 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: How long will the King Reign?
Yeah I don't think Wrinkle opens below 30m, which Black Panther will be below by week 4.
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Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:17 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6138 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: How long will the King Reign?
A Wrinkle in Oprah is going to bomb so it might even be #1 on that weekend
_________________ .
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Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:03 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Re: How long will the King Reign?
Barrabás wrote: A Wrinkle in Oprah is going to bomb so it might even be #1 on that weekend Yeah, our polling numbers are weak relative to general expectations. Been on a downward trend for two weeks.
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Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:08 pm |
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Passionate Thug
Top Poster
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:01 am Posts: 5261 Location: Wakanda
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Re: How long will the King Reign?
I'm thinking might have a second weekend drop of <40%
Last edited by Passionate Thug on Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:49 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32097 Location: the last free city
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Re: How long will the King Reign?
Rolling Thunder wrote: Barrabás wrote: A Wrinkle in Oprah is going to bomb so it might even be #1 on that weekend Yeah, our polling numbers are weak relative to general expectations. Been on a downward trend for two weeks. That’s not good for my draft pick. Hope it surprise & does 80m OW lol I needs it
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Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:50 pm |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am Posts: 3129
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Re: How long will the King Reign?
Guardians was @ $21m on week 4. Civil War was $15m. Wonder Woman did $25m.
I don't see Wrinkle doing less than $25-30m even if its weaker than expected.
_________________ I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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Fri Feb 16, 2018 1:52 am |
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Passionate Thug
Top Poster
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:01 am Posts: 5261 Location: Wakanda
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Re: How long will the King Reign?
Not much reaction for WnT trailer in the 3 BP showings I've been to. I think it's going to come down to its weekend drops if it follow this path it might make it to 5 weeks Week 2- 100m Week 3- 50m Week 4- 30m
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Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:14 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: How long will the King Reign?
A lot of black movies are very frontloaded so that could cause a bigger than usual drop for BP.
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Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:08 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23762 Location: Classified
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Re: How long will the King Reign?
A Wrinkle In Time will have some work to do. BP might still be around $40m by the time it comes out.
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Mon Feb 19, 2018 1:26 am |
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Proud Ryu
Deshi Basara
Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2007 3:36 pm Posts: 5322 Location: The Interstice
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Re: How long will the King Reign?
People are underestimating how big BP could drop in the 2nd weekend. It could drop two thirds.
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Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:57 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: How long will the King Reign?
^Agreed. With the frontloading of MCU, great reviews and nostalgia of first black superhero movie this could easily drop harder. This isn't WW type of situation in terms of OW. There isn't too much room for it to expand audience week after week. A lot of casual audience saw it on OW itself.
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Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:06 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23762 Location: Classified
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Re: How long will the King Reign?
Proud Ryu wrote: People are underestimating how big BP could drop in the 2nd weekend. It could drop two thirds. It could, but traditonally super-breakouts have soft drops on the second as they draw in people who wouldn’t have otherwise seen it.
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Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:13 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: How long will the King Reign?
There's a reason MCU movies are getting frontloaded with almost each movie.
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Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:14 pm |
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Dil
Forum General
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 9:48 pm Posts: 8942 Location: Houston, Texas
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Re: How long will the King Reign?
Frontloading is definitely a factor, but the WOM/EVENT STATUS for this seems to very much be on par with the first Avengers. This has even weaker competition than that movie faced during the Summer, and it will likely stay that way until IW.
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Mon Feb 19, 2018 1:36 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23762 Location: Classified
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Re: How long will the King Reign?
Ragnarok only dropped 53%. I’m gonna predict that Black Panther will end up with $105mish, but I wouldn’t be too surprised by $110m+ for second all time. Even with the holiday this is gonna play so well until the onslaught of competition in March.
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Mon Feb 19, 2018 7:36 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6138 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: How long will the King Reign?
Algren wrote: Yeah, 3 weeks. A Wrinkle in Time will attract a lot of the black fellas and females that will be propping up Black Panther week-in/week-out, and by that time it will be earning $28-40m (4th weekend), so I think Oprah can manage that. Though I'd put some of my money on it staying at #1 for 4 weeks. Maybe I'd go for a 70-30 split here. I kind of also see AWiT disappointing with just high teens/low 20s. It does look like dog shit. Black men aren't going to be watching A Wrinkle in Time.
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Mon Feb 19, 2018 9:41 pm |
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